ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Actually, for a cold pool, moderate shear enhances convection and helps make it self sustaining.
The pulsing convection is a clear indication that it is cold-pool driven.

Is the CoC still displaced or reforming?

Looks like a high-helicity hot tower just fired with a short duration warm-core future.
Looks like it may be on its way.

I gotta say GCane you sure do know your stuff on here. Thanks for all your input on these storms!

[Iceresistance]

Here we go. . .

[AutoPenalti]

Oh boy, here we go again

People arguing on Eta:

'Yes' is saying Eta is displaced to the NW
'No' is saying Eta is stacking up!

According to that thermal profile, it is not yet stacked.
To stack, there needs to be some good high helicity towers / vortical hot towers.

And the CoC to slip back into the cold core

EDIT: UMMMM! I SPOKE TOO SOON!

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL292020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL292020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Wow, the radial fingers on that is insane.

[Iceresistance]

Do you think that Eta will regain hurricane strength!?

[GCANE]

Is the CoC still displaced or reforming?

Looks like a high-helicity hot tower just fired with a short duration warm-core future.
Looks like it may be on its way.

I gotta say GCane you sure do know your stuff on here. Thanks for all your input on these storms!

Much thanks Weather Dude

[Iceresistance]

The hot tower had over 80 lightning strikes in 2 hours! Still counting. . .

[crimi481]

Bands are increasing over Florida w coast. Getting weird feeling about all this

[Jr0d]

Definiately tilted some... however the center is farther east than most are claiming on here..

https://i.ibb.co/fnfRsgt/3.gif

I am thinking tomorrow Key West will be getting outer rain bands. It would not take much of a wobble east for us to get full storm conditions.

The NAM(i know) shows it being too close for comfort to the lower Florida Keys.

[Aric Dunn]

Definiately tilted some... however the center is farther east than most are claiming on here..

https://i.ibb.co/fnfRsgt/3.gif

I am thinking tomorrow Key West will be getting outer rain bands. It would not take much of a wobble east for us to get full storm conditions.

The NAM(i know) shows it being too close for comfort to the lower Florida Keys.

The mid level gyre Eta is imbedded in has a firm hold and the larger mid level vorticity over south florida is lifting north/nnw which will want to force ETA ENE

I would say if this continues to stay stronger as it is. then east shifts are coming.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[Iceresistance]

Windy.com Satellite is saying a center reformation with Eta


(200 pages on Eta is next! WOW!)

[aspen]

When is the next recon flight supposed to go out? It’s been like a full 24 hours since the last center fix.

[Iceresistance]

The CoC is starting to disappear into the convection. . .

[ColdMiser123]

Definiately tilted some... however the center is farther east than most are claiming on here..

https://i.ibb.co/fnfRsgt/3.gif

I am thinking tomorrow Key West will be getting outer rain bands. It would not take much of a wobble east for us to get full storm conditions.

The NAM(i know) shows it being too close for comfort to the lower Florida Keys.

The mid level gyre Eta is imbedded in has a firm hold and the larger mid level vorticity over south florida is lifting north/nnw which will want to force ETA ENE

I would say if this continues to stay stronger as it is. then east shifts are coming.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

Agree with the bolded, when you look at the steering, a taller vortex will be more impacted by the easterly flow in the upper levels (black box), relative to a more shallow vortex being impacted by just the low-level flow to the north (red box).

Shear will make this tough to fully stay stacked, but periods where this is more stacked could allow for deepening and drifts eastward.

[AutoPenalti]

Definiately tilted some... however the center is farther east than most are claiming on here..

https://i.ibb.co/fnfRsgt/3.gif

I am thinking tomorrow Key West will be getting outer rain bands. It would not take much of a wobble east for us to get full storm conditions.

The NAM(i know) shows it being too close for comfort to the lower Florida Keys.

The mid level gyre Eta is imbedded in has a firm hold and the larger mid level vorticity over south florida is lifting north/nnw which will want to force ETA ENE

I would say if this continues to stay stronger as it is. then east shifts are coming.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

...and look at what's in it's cross hairs...

[Iceresistance]

Cuban radar indicating a Center Reformation

[Sanibel]

It just broke loose here with hard sun showers of big drop gusting rain...

Storm clouds in sun with blue sky in between...

[AnnularCane]

This is the deepest cold pool of the season.
No wonder this is going gangbusters.
Warm core displaced west of the CoC.
Cold pool to the east.
If this stacks, its off to the races.

https://i.imgur.com/JvV6DmY.png

Oh boy, here we go again

People arguing on Eta:

'Yes' is saying Eta is displaced to the NW
'No' is saying Eta is stacking up!

Enough to make you wish the storms could talk and just tell us themselves.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm waiting for a few of the board posters to say that they still think this will become a hurricane before landfall on the northern gulf states as some were saying a couple of days ago.......
Water is too cold, too much shear, too much dry air. Depression by landfall.
And thank goodness!!!

[chris_fit]

So why in hail is recon not out there, nor has it been out there anytime in the last 20+ hours?

[GCANE]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.