ATL: THETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ryxn]

Would they go 65 kt while still subtropical? That wouldn't be a "hurricane" though, since by definition, a hurricane is tropical? (Although they'd probably find a way to fudge it...)

It's 2020... Subtropical Hurricane Theta would fit perfectly in this season lol

Looool or Subhurricane Theta (not really but still)

[Iceresistance]

Would they go 65 kt while still subtropical? That wouldn't be a "hurricane" though, since by definition, a hurricane is tropical? (Although they'd probably find a way to fudge it...)

It's 2020... Subtropical Hurricane Theta would fit perfectly in this season lol

Looool or Subhurricane Theta (not really but still)

I was thinking Subtropical hurricane Theta.

[aspen]

Well it’s fully tropical now, so we don’t need to worry about what it’ll be classified as once it reaches 65 kt.

[Iceresistance]

Cyclonicwx is saying that Theta is tropical now.

[Dean_175]

Would they go 65 kt while still subtropical? That wouldn't be a "hurricane" though, since by definition, a hurricane is tropical? (Although they'd probably find a way to fudge it...)

It's 2020... Subtropical Hurricane Theta would fit perfectly in this season lol

Theta is looking increasingly tropical imo. Circulation looks like it becoming more tight and vertically stacked - with lots of cirrus outflow and convection on satellite. I think they would call it (tropical) hurricane theta.

[wxman57]

Looks like squalls north of its exposed center have been diminishing all day. I don't see a strengthening storm at all. Dvorak is < 3, about 45-50 kts max. There is no classification of subtropical hurricane. It would be a subtropical storm whether winds are 40 kts or 150 kts.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ATCF has made Theta a 60 knot tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

Is oficial:

...THETA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

[aspen]

I don’t think Theta is going to start weakening as quickly as the NHC forecasts. The HWRF and HMON show it strengthening a bit within the next 48 hours, with the pressure dropping further into the 980s and the moisture field and IR presentation improving. Looks like Theta will remain lopsided until later tomorrow and into Thursday.

[Kazmit]

Looks like squalls north of its exposed center have been diminishing all day. I don't see a strengthening storm at all. Dvorak is < 3, about 45-50 kts max. There is no classification of subtropical hurricane. It would be a subtropical storm whether winds are 40 kts or 150 kts.

But would it be counted as a hurricane in the season totals?

[CyclonicFury]

I don’t think Theta is going to start weakening as quickly as the NHC forecasts. The HWRF and HMON show it strengthening a bit within the next 48 hours, with the pressure dropping further into the 980s and the moisture field and IR presentation improving. Looks like Theta will remain lopsided until later tomorrow and into Thursday.

The GFS and ECMWF show some deepening. Statistical guidance is often too bearish with these east Atlantic systems due to low SST, so we'll see what happens.

[EquusStorm]

I like tracking tropical systems as much as anyone but there comes a time where it's really time to stop

2020 clearly has other plans however

[aspen]

Theta looks ugly, just as anticipated by the HWRF. It doesn’t show Theta developing a more symmetrical look until later tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

[Iceresistance]

The only reason why Theta is at 70 mph. . .

[ElectricStorm]

Theta looks pretty bad on IR for a 60kt TS. Still time for it to become a hurricane but it's got it's work cut out for it.

[Iceresistance]

Now down to 60 mph

[aspen]

If the HWRF is right, over the next 24-36 hours, we should see Theta’s convection wrap around the CoC and it acquire a more symmetrical structure.

[aspen]

The HWRF shows Theta’s moisture field starting to wrap around the center overnight, becoming deeper and symmetrical by tomorrow morning as the LLC and MLC better align. I believe we will see an increase in organization early tomorrow that gets this up to 60-70 kt, potentially enough for it to be upgraded to a hurricane.

[Iceresistance]

The HWRF shows Theta’s moisture field starting to wrap around the center overnight, becoming deeper and symmetrical by tomorrow morning as the LLC and MLC better align. I believe we will see an increase in organization early tomorrow that gets this up to 60-70 kt, potentially enough for it to be upgraded to a hurricane.

You may have spoken too soon

[aspen]

As I anticipated, Theta has slightly restrenghtened. It’s back up to 55 kt and convection, while shallow, isn’t totally concentrated to one quadrant of the storm. Still a slim chance of this becoming a hurricane tomorrow before it starts weakening for good.