ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

[AutoPenalti]

Is the reformation happening further East?? Because no models had this happen...

[GCANE]

Been having a lot of pinholes this season.
Maybe this is the next one.

[GCANE]

Is the reformation happening further East?? Because no models had this happen...

Looks like

[Aric Dunn]

Is the reformation happening further East?? Because no models had this happen...

No reformation.. that is just a really bad satellite estimate. There is a eyewall on radar. cant see the entire thing since it is too far from the radar.

[lando]

CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean

[BobHarlem]

On this loop it does seem to be drifting northeast this morning, lots of lightning around the center too.

[underthwx]

There might be a slight tilt but there is a still an eyewall.
you only see the ouline of the other side of the eyewall. it is far from radar site and other convection masking it.

this is almost certainly a hurricane. and 50mph is laughable.

https://i.ibb.co/jHLgD98/ezgif-com-resize-14.gif

Gap between recon is laughable. Atlantic is turning into euro6208's WPAC.

True that Sconnie and Aric...

[GCANE]

CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean

Pumping in a lot more energy.

[GCANE]

Looks to be waaaay SE of Forecast Track

[cycloneye]

Up to 50 kts.

29L ETA 201110 1200 22.6N 85.3W ATL 50 992

[GCANE]

This far south and a lot more intense TC and could see a big change in forecast track.
Huge difference now in the timing from the Rossby-Wave tug to drive to the NE.

[GCANE]

No recon = no clue

[chaser1]

Drifting east. Eyewall becoming clearer as it gets a little closer to the radar.

https://i.ibb.co/hsPM4Fs/ezgif-com-gif-maker-30.gif

How might that affect future track? How are conditions in the Gulf?

Think the obvious concern for us on the west coast of Florida is a strengthening or overperforming storm. A stronger storm will respond to the approaching trough and move ETA toward the NE as the HMON and COAMPs models suggest. In fact, if you believe COAMPs that could bring the storm into Tampa Bay in as little as 48 hrs.

Kind of my concern too. If this is going to make a run to the NE, then it'll be soon then later. I'm projecting a window from 36 hr's to 60 hr.s at the outside. Eta's intensification now presents this as a possibility and any near term NE to NNE motion would likely accelerate relatively soon suggesting this to occur. I'm not sure if the system has quite broached hurricane intensity but do agree with Aric that core eyewall appearance suggests it should be rather close. The integrity (or lack thereof) of it's vertical structure would probably be the greatest determining factor for a second hurricane risk to Florida west coast. Other key of course is whether models tend to increase or back off the approaching trough depth and ridge breakdown just ahead of it.

[robbielyn]

CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean

What is CAPE?

CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instabilily of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm. A higher value of CAPE means the atmosphere is more unstable and would therefore produce a stronger updraft.

To better understand this, consider a parcel of air that has been forced upward by some mechanism such as an approaching frontal boundary. Since warm air is less dense (lighter) than cold air, the parcel will continue rising on its own as long as its temperature remains warmer than its surroundings. This is the same concept as a hot air balloon, which uses a heat source to maintain a temperture within the balloon (air parcel) that is warmer than its surroundings. As long as this condition is met, the balloon will continue rising. Once the air temperature within the balloon cools and becomes equal to the air outside the balloon, it will stop rising.

CAPE is calculated by determing the area between the environmental temperature trace and the trajectory of an air parcel that is forced upwards on an atmospheric sounding. The image below shows an atmospheric sounding. The red line is the measured temperature of the surrounding air as you climb through the depth of the atmosphere. The yellow line represents the trajectory of an air parcel that has been forced to rise from the surface. As long as the yellow line (parcel) remains to the right of the red line (environment), the parcel is warmer than its surroundings and will continue to rise. The amount of CAPE in the sounding is therefore the area contained between the red and yellow lines. An atmospheric sounding such as the one below gives forecasters a quick visual way to assess how much fuel is available within the atmosphere.

Edit: Taken from the NHC. I thought it would paste NHC on here sorry. I'm smart but not that smart weatherwise to say all this on my own lol.

[aspen]

This looks a lot like a CCC structure to me, which usually happens when mid-level shear fractures the core. However, radar apparently shows at least a partial eyewall, so Eta isn’t a true CCC storm. Recon would be nice...

[underthwx]

This looks a lot like a CCC structure to me, which usually happens when mid-level shear fractures the core. However, radar apparently shows at least a partial eyewall, so Eta isn’t a true CCC storm. Recon would be nice...

I am kinda outta the loop on recon...why are they not out there exactly?...

[GCANE]

Nice hole on 37GHz vertical polarization

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a sheared TS to me... Some signs of the surface circulation being located on the western edge of the CDO on this morning's visible satellite imagery.

[underthwx]

CAPE picking up in the GoM.
Now 3500

https://i.imgur.com/E64VqXL.gif

What does this mean

What is CAPE?

CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instabilily of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm. A higher value of CAPE means the atmosphere is more unstable and would therefore produce a stronger updraft.

To better understand this, consider a parcel of air that has been forced upward by some mechanism such as an approaching frontal boundary. Since warm air is less dense (lighter) than cold air, the parcel will continue rising on its own as long as its temperature remains warmer than its surroundings. This is the same concept as a hot air balloon, which uses a heat source to maintain a temperture within the balloon (air parcel) that is warmer than its surroundings. As long as this condition is met, the balloon will continue rising. Once the air temperature within the balloon cools and becomes equal to the air outside the balloon, it will stop rising.

CAPE is calculated by determing the area between the environmental temperature trace and the trajectory of an air parcel that is forced upwards on an atmospheric sounding. The image below shows an atmospheric sounding. The red line is the measured temperature of the surrounding air as you climb through the depth of the atmosphere. The yellow line represents the trajectory of an air parcel that has been forced to rise from the surface. As long as the yellow line (parcel) remains to the right of the red line (environment), the parcel is warmer than its surroundings and will continue to rise. The amount of CAPE in the sounding is therefore the area contained between the red and yellow lines. An atmospheric sounding such as the one below gives forecasters a quick visual way to assess how much fuel is available within the atmosphere.

Robbielyn....Im giving you an A for that!....but seriously...good post...up till your post... I didn't have a clue what CAPE was... Thanks for that...