ATL: ETA - Models
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- Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Running out of fuel?
(0z GFS dissipates 36hr later @ N Yucatan)
0z HMON takes Euro type track, toward Big Ben @96hr, (faster, & stronger than 12z Euro)
0z HWRF same as 18z run... spinning, (and weakening), around 27N, SW of Tampa
(0z GFS dissipates 36hr later @ N Yucatan)
0z HMON takes Euro type track, toward Big Ben @96hr, (faster, & stronger than 12z Euro)
0z HWRF same as 18z run... spinning, (and weakening), around 27N, SW of Tampa
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- Hurricane Alexis
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
0z Euro closest approach to SFL at 30 hours with the bulk of the weather NE as expected.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Hurricane Alexis wrote:0z Euro closest approach to SFL at 30 hours with the bulk of the weather NE as expected.
All the other models go south so the Euro decides to go North and hug So Fla... love it
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- Hurricane Alexis
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Cat5James wrote:Hurricane Alexis wrote:0z Euro closest approach to SFL at 30 hours with the bulk of the weather NE as expected.
All the other models go south so the Euro decides to go North and hug So Fla... love it
0z euro and gfs agreeing on lower/middle keys with the same idea of most of the weather to be north and east. Like the nhc said, TS winds way north of the center.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
06z GFS heads towards keys at 992mb heads south gets to 1004mb then heads so towards western tip of cuba starts to strengthen as it heads ne towards sarasota at 980mb. Sarasota says: “not here u don’t!” stays just offshore then pops back out west takes long way around north fizzles out by the time it hits hernando/citrus. This thing got me dizzy lol.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
robbielyn wrote:HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb
Yeah scary thought for us on the nature coast. Yikes!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=29L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020110806&fh=108
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
ronjon wrote:robbielyn wrote:HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb
Yeah scary thought for us on the nature coast. Yikes!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=29L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020110806&fh=108
That type angle always piles up water in the Tampa Bay region as well
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
06z ECM looking at wind gust swath it shows gusts to around 60mph from about W. Palm Southward right along the SE FL Coast and some over 70mph in the Keys. Later as the Storm intensifies and moves northward in the Gulf it shows wind gusts just over 100mph from well out West of Naples to West of Tampa area before it stops at 90hrs time frame.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.
Hey Dean,
Do you have a link to the full run?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.
Hey Dean,
Do you have a link to the full run?
Edit: never mind see it now
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
caneman wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:Big NE shift in the 06z ECM center position at 00z Thursday (90hrs) compared to 00z Thursday in the 00z run. Much bigger threat to Tampa area sitting there at 978mb.
Hey Dean,
Do you have a link to the full run?
Edit: never mind see it now
Sorry, I get mine from the pay site on Weatherbell.com so I can't really link it and it do anyone any good who isn't paying for it there.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
06z HWRF was especially concerning for people along the west-central coast of Florida.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
caneman wrote:ronjon wrote:robbielyn wrote:HRWF takes it across southern keys at 992 mb and goes way around west landfalls in cedar key fl at 968 mb
Yeah scary thought for us on the nature coast. Yikes!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=29L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020110806&fh=108
That type angle always piles up water in the Tampa Bay region as well
Yes would be pretty terrible from Tampa Bay northward. Not liking latest model trends of significant strengthening in the SE GOM and then heading north-northeast toward Florida west coast as Euro, GFS, and HWRF now showing.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Salute!
NWS forecasts show a front coming thru per normal fall pattern, and that puppy will help we Baja Alabama folks as well as The Big Easy.
If we look at history, we can see Betsy in 65 and Elena in 85 as potential models for this newbie storm. So I would not rule out a loop-da-loop in the eastern Gulf like Elena did.
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The "shield" must not pay attention to history, heh heh. Go see where most storms came ashore the last 100 years. But there might be a glimmer of factual atmospheric and climate phenomena at play some years. Think "Bermuda high", for one. Then La Nina/El Nino, aka ENSO, have a good track record for keeping storms away from the Gulf or vice versa. Something to do with upper level shear, and I didn't study that way back in school.
Gums sends...
NWS forecasts show a front coming thru per normal fall pattern, and that puppy will help we Baja Alabama folks as well as The Big Easy.
If we look at history, we can see Betsy in 65 and Elena in 85 as potential models for this newbie storm. So I would not rule out a loop-da-loop in the eastern Gulf like Elena did.
=====================================
The "shield" must not pay attention to history, heh heh. Go see where most storms came ashore the last 100 years. But there might be a glimmer of factual atmospheric and climate phenomena at play some years. Think "Bermuda high", for one. Then La Nina/El Nino, aka ENSO, have a good track record for keeping storms away from the Gulf or vice versa. Something to do with upper level shear, and I didn't study that way back in school.
Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
12z GFS doesn’t get beyond a strong TS due to dry air getting into the west side of the storm starting late Tuesday. This is probably due to it having Eta make landfall in southern Florida, slightly eroding its moisture bubble and making dry air entrainment more likely. Let’s see if the HWRF will also be less aggressive in its 12z run.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
12z GFS @ 18hrs has Eta on it's closest approach to SFL it's shown since the 06z run yesterday. Has Eta crossing through the Upper Keys, rather than the Lower Keys, or just missing (directly) the Keys entirely to the South, as today's 00z GFS showed. Not a big shift, but would impact how far north Hurricane gusts can spread. Also appears just a tad slower as it passes FL, but not enough to make a big difference.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
I guess because the latest 12z GFS shows Eta getting disrupted by dry air later today thus not strengthening much is why it is now persistent on it making landfall in the Upper Keys two runs in a row.
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