ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

I'd be surprised if this storm threatens fl at hurricane intensity. Conditions don't look great and we're a week into November. What might be lacking in strength is destined to be counterbalanced by longevity. this is going to be a marathon event over multiple days. The east coast beaches are going to be brutalized by massive waves and overwash over a long period of time. that's gonna leave a big mark. As will the heavy rain totals. Plus at least some risk of svr wx...again all of this over many days. it looks like a late season subtropical, broad spread out mess...but those have their own threats..especially coastal water action with gales over a massive fetch...

[Jr0d]

Looks to me as if Eta is now reaching it's peak. Eyewall attempting to form on it's north quad but dry air seems to be decaying convection immediately to the south of center. Tops warming significantly there. I could be wrong and new convective bursting south of center could increase but at this point I'd hedge that Eta will begin to start taking on a more sub-tropical "comma" appearance. That tells me that it's time for lunch

Convection is definitely waning niw. Highly doubful it will strengthen anymore before hitting Cuba. I was not expecting to go subtropical/hybrid until its approach to Florida.

I still think there will be another window for strengthening after it crosses Cuba and before it goes hybrid, though that may be a bias opinion given it may be a direct hit.

On the flip side, after finding water in my generator's tank, I flushed it out and it is running as expected. My working generator will hopefully act as a deflector shield for Key West.

[Weatherboy1]

I think the most likely course of action at 4 pm is:

1. Hurricane watch issued for area that currently has a TS warning
2. TS Warning extended northward to Jupiter Inlet on east coast and comparable location on west coast.

I doubt we see true, sustained, hurricane force winds in the watch area. But think ETA is so close to Cat 1 status there is no harm in hoisting a watch and upgrading to warning later if needed

[CourierPR]

This dry-air intrusion was anticipated by the models. These same models also show the inner core of Eta moistening by tomorrow morning on approach to FL. This is the same time when shear will temporarily drop to more favorable levels. I could see some last-minute intensification on approach to FL.

Some of the more manic posts telling of Eta's imminent demise don't seem to take this into consideration.

[lhpfish]

Will we see it tighten up as it approaches Cuba’s Coast?

[fci]

Wxman57 did say a hurricane watch will be hoisted later today. I don’t get it NWS Miami has the Fort Lauderdale area covered in 58-73 yet there is no warning in place? Don’t quite get that.

I think he made that prediction over a day ago.

[jlauderdal]

Miami nws radar down for maintenance..broward and north use Melbourne, dade and s-sw use key west

[ObsessedMiami]

Miami nws radar down for maintenance..broward and north use Melbourne, dade and s-sw use key west

According to RadarScope app, Melbourne is showing RED also, out of service but the app is updating as if those radars were working. Weird

[Blown Away]

New convection brewing at @20.8N/80W. I would think the LLC is about there?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1325171797436805120

[Cat5James]

New convection brewing at @20.8N/80W. I would think the LLC is about there?

That’s what I was thinking

[jlauderdal]

Miami nws radar down for maintenance..broward and north use Melbourne, dade and s-sw use key west

According to RadarScope app, Melbourne is showing RED also, out of service but the app is updating as if those radars were working. Weird

Yep, it just went down too...key west and tampa it is...nbc6 has their own so get their app

[caneseddy]

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

From new advisory

[Evil Jeremy]

Wxman57 was on the money.

[jlauderdal]

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

Very aggressive but the modeling supports intensification and the intensity modeling has been on the weaker side of reality this year

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 was on the money.

Yes!!

Hurricane warning is next.

[psyclone]

Wow that's very impressive with the hurricane watch. a notch more spicy than i expected

[caneseddy]

Wondering if Wxman secretly works for NHC. Pretty much Beven's discussion mirrors Wxman's explanation earlier about the error in wind speeds and why the watch would be prudent

The new intensity forecast is
increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt
intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch
for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida.

[Jr0d]

Wxman57 was on the money.

He usually is being a pro and all.

A hurricane watch means the Florida Keys must now shut down to tourists if I recall correctly.

[jlauderdal]

Wxman57 was on the money.

He usually is being a pro and all.

A hurricane watch means the Florida Keys must now shut down to tourists if I recall correctly.

Hunker in place, its a 1