ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Strong fast moving squalls looking most concentrated around Port St Lucie, but especially training across the FLL area. And this stuff is well north of the thick mass associated with the old frontal trough across the Florida straits now and slowing lifting northward beginning to affect the Keys now. A wet windy 3 days for sure. Curious to see if T.S. warnings will soon be extended as far north as the Cape area; perhaps later this evening.

Here in palm city it’s been on and off extremely gusty heavy side ways downpours

[jlauderdal]

Just looking at this setup right now on synoptic models has me thinking the SE Metro areas of FL are going to get inundated with 10-12" accumulations areawide. Those of us in Broward and Palm Beach can already tell that convergence setting up as showers from the coast move inland. There's an area north of 595 that had widespread 1 to 2" of rain in the last hour, and those tend to under-estimate ground observations. This is just north of Pembroke and my location in Cooper City, and there's already another healthy band over the immediate Atlantic waters heading to our area. I don't the estimates of posters that think totals will be 10-15 or 15-20", check out some of the latest short-range models. Some locations today could receive 2-6" of rain within the next 12 hours, or 25-100% of totals for a storm that will be sitting around the area over the next 3 days.

.46 in the bucket since midnight, im going with over 9 event total..so at least tuesday night

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 did say a hurricane watch will be hoisted later today. I don’t get it NWS Miami has the Fort Lauderdale area covered in 58-73 yet there is no warning in place? Don’t quite get that.

[TheStormExpert]

Unbelievable how gusty the winds have gotten already here in east central FL when I went to the store, no doubt TS force will reach this area tomorrow night and Monday.

Yeah it’s crazy here at the beach in Jupiter. A few surfers out but that’s it.

[Nuno]

Wxman57 did say a hurricane watch will be hoisted later today. I don’t get it NWS Miami has the Fort Lauderdale area covered in 58-73 yet there is no warning in place? Don’t quite get that.

Its weird messaging. There's a saturation of covid and election news and people assume the season has ended. TS watches don't get peoples attention, and seeing how this storm has been intensifying quicker than expected its weird that they don't just go with a combo TS warning + hurricane watch. The latter could always just be discontinued

[eastcoastFL]

Incredible rain and wind again right now in palm city. So far out performing Isaias...

[NDG]

Wxman57 did say a hurricane watch will be hoisted later today. I don’t get it NWS Miami has the Fort Lauderdale area covered in 58-73 yet there is no warning in place? Don’t quite get that.

I think it has to do with timing on when the stronger winds arrive, maybe at 4 PM the warnings will be extended northward.

[underthwx]

Wxman57 did say a hurricane watch will be hoisted later today. I don’t get it NWS Miami has the Fort Lauderdale area covered in 58-73 yet there is no warning in place? Don’t quite get that.

They will probably issue later today I would think, with winds approaching minimal Hurricane strength, the conditions should warrant issuance of hurricane watches, don't you think?... Wxman57 is usually spot on...

[Iceresistance]

Recon is saying that Eta is at 60 mph & 994 MB

NHC is saying 65 mph as the secondary peak, but will it reach 70-75 mph?

[AdamFirst]

Recon is saying that Eta is at 60 mph & 994 MB

NHC is saying 65 mph as the secondary peak, but will it reach 70-75 mph?

It's strengthened more than forecast. We have to account for that. We'll see what the NHC wants to do at 4 PM today.

[AutoPenalti]

I’m out and about and everything seems business as usual. Publix doesn’t seem at capacity and Home Depot operating normally...

[skyline385]

I’m out and about and everything seems business as usual. Publix doesn’t seem at capacity and Home Depot operating normally...

Because of the election, most people probably arent even aware of it. A lot of people will be in for a shock when they get the TS warning on their phones...

[Sanibel]

That band over the Florida Straits has juice because it is over the Gulf Stream...

You can see it starting to get entrained which would threaten it delivering that juice to the core and Eta snapping together in response...

However just when it comes to the point of doing that it will park under an upper Low that will put a governor on it and inhibit it...

60mph and 994 should extrapolate to hurricane at peak...

[chaser1]

Dry air appears to be eroding the south side of the core like Space Invaders on a game console LOL. It may not be enough to kill it, but it certainly might be enough to question whether any additional near term intensification will occur. I think we'll see pressures and winds level off right around where they are now. If NHC believes that this dry air will continue to entrain into the storms circulation, then it's hard for me to conceive NHC pulling the Hurricane Watch card for the Keys or S. Florida. Now, if they see the dry air abating then that would be another story. My guess is that they'll wait until later this evening to consider whether it'll warrant Hurricane Watches. If the storms structure continues to degrade, i'd have to disagree with Wxman on this one.

[gatorcane]

Dry air appears to be eroding the south side of the core like Space Invaders on a game console LOL.

Boy is it ever, take a look at this loop. November strikes!

[wxman57]

Dry air appears to be eroding the south side of the core like Space Invaders on a game console LOL. It may not be enough to kill it, but it certainly might be enough to question whether any additional near term intensification will occur. I think we'll see pressures and winds level off right around where they are now. If NHC believes that this dry air will continue to entrain into the storms circulation, then it's hard for me to conceive NHC pulling the Hurricane Watch card for the Keys or S. Florida. Now, if they see the dry air abating then that would be another story. My guess is that they'll wait until later this evening to consider whether it'll warrant Hurricane Watches. If the storms structure continues to degrade, i'd have to disagree with Wxman on this one.

I was just about to post that dry air is taking its toll on Eta. My point about the hurricane watch was if you're forecasting a storm to hit with 65 mph winds in 36 hours and there is a 10-15 mph typical margin of error, then why wouldn't a hurricane watch be issued? I see Beven is on the NHC forecast desk. He's a good forecaster. I've known him for many years. Eta may have peaked right about the time recon got there. It's clearly transforming into a larger system now, as predicted. Core may weaken as it does so, but it could regenerate near south Florida.

[AutoPenalti]

Convection drying out quickly, this won’t last.

Mesovort may have collapsed, intensification expected after Cuba.

[SouthDadeFish]

This dry-air intrusion was anticipated by the models. These same models also show the inner core of Eta moistening by tomorrow morning on approach to FL. This is the same time when shear will temporarily drop to more favorable levels. I could see some last-minute intensification on approach to FL.

[Cat5James]

Go take a look at the hurricane models from 12Z.... this decay of convection due to dry air entrainment was projected... a much healthier looking system is still displayed north of Cuba.

[Cat5James]

This dry-air intrusion was anticipated by the models. These same models also show the inner core of Eta moistening by tomorrow morning on approach to FL. This is the same time when shear will temporarily drop to more favorable levels. I could see some last-minute intensification on approach to FL.

You beat me to it lol...