ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Outflow boundaries still pooping out on the southeast side.

[NDG]

What the hell? Recon heading north and pressures rose to 1013mb, but then suddenly dropped to 1001mb without a windshift. Doesn't appear to be due to the change in the planes altitude.

https://i.imgur.com/mcL3LUB.png

Yes, it was due to the change in altitude which shown on the 5th column below, it went up and down in altitude when it was going through deep convection.

URNT15 KNHC 071521
AF309 1029A ETA HDOB 29 20201107
151200 1941N 08143W 9241 00767 0097 +201 +201 052055 056 047 010 03
151230 1942N 08143W 9250 00764 0100 +206 +206 055054 055 044 010 03
151300 1943N 08143W 9249 00768 0100 +207 +207 055050 054 046 009 00
151330 1944N 08143W 9248 00789 0127 +201 +201 057042 048 043 013 00
151400 1946N 08143W 9253 00792 0138 +201 +201 063040 041 038 022 00
151430 1947N 08143W 9249 00811 0133 +200 +200 070040 040 046 025 00
151500 1949N 08143W 9249 00661 0027 +198 +198 074045 047 045 017 03
151530 1950N 08143W 9246 00693 0014 +203 //// 081047 048 044 006 01
151600 1952N 08144W 9245 00696 0011 +215 +208 083048 049 041 003 03
151630 1953N 08144W 9253 00694 0016 +214 +209 085045 048 039 000 00
151700 1955N 08144W 9255 00693 0019 +210 +208 086045 046 038 001 00
151730 1956N 08144W 9250 00704 0024 +209 +205 089045 047 038 003 03
151800 1958N 08144W 9249 00705 //// +201 //// 089042 045 036 001 05
151830 1959N 08144W 9249 00709 0031 +205 +202 092040 041 034 000 00
151900 2001N 08144W 9248 00717 0038 +206 +197 087037 039 029 001 00
151930 2003N 08144W 9253 00717 //// +192 //// 074036 037 027 003 01
152000 2004N 08144W 9251 00718 0051 +196 //// 071033 034 028 004 01
152030 2006N 08145W 9249 00719 0050 +194 //// 065031 035 030 004 01
152100 2007N 08145W 9256 00717 0054 +195 //// 064031 033 030 005 01
152130 2008N 08145W 9236 00735 //// +185 //// 067035 037 029 003 05
$$

[sponger]

We've ALL been fooled before by sat presentation but I can't help to think Eta's structure is recovering in such a way that wasn't expected.

Exactly. Yesterday the talk was if it could reorganize before Miami and now we are discussing the slight potential to reach hurricane strength before Cuba. Do not count anything out in 2020!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=29L&product=vis

[NDG]

Outflow boundaries still pooping out on the southeast side.

I don't see that at all.

[Evil Jeremy]

We've ALL been fooled before by sat presentation but I can't help to think Eta's structure is recovering in such a way that wasn't expected.

I don't think anyone should be surprised that a storm that went from 70mph to 150mph in 18 hours is recovering well back in open waters.

[fci]

That does not make sense Broward not under warning but northern Bahamas are????

This will be updated

Counties issue warnings.

I do not believe that is accurate.
Countries May issue them but not counties or States in the US.
If so, that’s need to me.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/gregpostel/status/1325099858907246593

[NDG]

Recon about to make another pass again.

[AutoPenalti]

Outflow boundaries still pooping out on the southeast side.

I don't see that at all.

It’s there, check out the SE.

[Aric Dunn]

Being farther east sooner and stronger with a vertical core structure developing. Models will have to adjust.

some of those earlier runs where Eta Swung out to the central bahamas before turning back west. might be in play now.

[Patrick99]

We've ALL been fooled before by sat presentation but I can't help to think Eta's structure is recovering in such a way that wasn't expected.

I don't think anyone should be surprised that a storm that went from 70mph to 150mph in 18 hours is recovering well back in open waters.

Some of these storms just seem to have better "bones" than others. Hard to explain.

[AutoPenalti]

That does not make sense Broward not under warning but northern Bahamas are????

This will be updated

Counties issue warnings.

I do not believe that is accurate.
Countries May issue them but not counties or States in the US.
If so, that’s need to me.

I thought NHC gave out the forecast and then it was the county that issued them? Maybe it’s the State then?

[Aric Dunn]

Outflow boundaries still pooping out on the southeast side.

I don't see that at all.

It’s there, check out the SE.

No outflow boundaries. especially not on the SE side.

[NDG]

As soon as the winds shifted from the SW so did the surf conditions on the western side of Cayman Islands.

[sma10]

Counties issue warnings.

I do not believe that is accurate.
Countries May issue them but not counties or States in the US.
If so, that’s need to me.

I thought NHC gave out the forecast and then it was the county that issued them? Maybe it’s the State then?

Yes. That's literally what the NHC does. It issues watches/warnings for all of US, and I believe Haiti, too

[NDG]

Wow, extrap pressure down to 992mb!

153200 1939N 08143W 8419 01501 0010 +175 +175 015051 052 044 010 00
153230 1938N 08141W 8425 01484 9999 +165 //// 011045 052 054 022 01
153300 1937N 08140W 8427 01470 9989 +177 //// 002040 042 058 013 05
153330 1937N 08138W 8440 01447 9964 +179 //// 000030 040 042 006 01
153400 1937N 08136W 8420 01462 9940 +201 +185 016012 023 036 002 03
153430 1937N 08135W 8448 01431 9936 +207 +185 008003 006 031 002 00
153500 1937N 08133W 8425 01447 9924 +219 +170 243011 018 026 004 00
153530 1937N 08131W 8425 01451 9931 +210 +170 257022 025 025 003 00
153600 1937N 08129W 8432 01438 9923 +216 +162 247031 035 026 001 03
153630 1936N 08127W 8440 01433 9937 +196 +170 234042 045 026 002 03
153700 1935N 08126W 8439 01441 9945 +193 +173 231045 047 /// /// 03
153730 1935N 08128W 8418 01458 9943 +187 +179 233044 046 031 002 03
153800 1935N 08129W 8439 02516 //// +205 +172 242034 044 034 002 03
153830 1937N 08130W 8435 04512 //// +206 +169 247019 027 027 002 00
153900 1938N 08131W 8425 04773 //// +212 +165 251009 014 025 002 00
153930 1938N 08131W 8425 04773 //// +221 +159 082004 012 016 002 00
154000 1941N 08132W 8432 01661 0201 +213 +158 071020 027 030 003 03
154030 1943N 08133W 8429 01492 //// +169 //// 076032 035 036 002 05
154100 1943N 08134W 8440 01476 //// +152 //// 072046 058 /// /// 05
154130 1942N 08136W 8445 01456 0000 +179 +179 036043 054 047 010 03

[Loveweather12]

Being farther east sooner and stronger with a vertical core structure developing. Models will have to adjust.

some of those earlier runs where Eta Swung out to the central bahamas before turning back west. might be in play now.

So the treasure coast might be in play?
How’s the environment in the central Bahamas if that was the case?

[boca]

Being farther east sooner and stronger with a vertical core structure developing. Models will have to adjust.

some of those earlier runs where Eta Swung out to the central bahamas before turning back west. might be in play now.

So the GFS is running now still shows a S FL hit should it be considered a garbage run not accounting the center relocation to the NE.

[Patrick99]

On the WV loop, I can kinda see the "wall" descending from the Carolinas that it's going to start to run into eventually.

[Jr0d]

55kts SMFR unflagged. Hurricane warnings may be necessary for the Bahanas, S. Florida and the Keys.

Looking much better than 6 hours ago. If this can consolidate tonight, watch out!