ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:That does not make sense Broward not under warning but northern Bahamas are????
This will be updated
Counties issue warnings.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yep, Eta continues to move faster and to the SE of the NHC cone. 10am has Eta all the way to 79.3W before the turn, at 4am it was 80.2W. The curves are flattening out to a more realistic track. Moving NE at 17 mph and NHC still uncertain of true movement, looking at satellite I would favor E side of cone for next few hours. Hurricane warnings may be in SFL’s future, JMHO...
Also for the Storm2k record, IMO the Euro is caving to the GFS...
Also for the Storm2k record, IMO the Euro is caving to the GFS...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:SFMR
55 knots
(~ 63.3 mph)
Flight level
60 knots
Like I said earlier ... appeared to be rapidly intensifying - which recon is now confirming
(~ 69.0 mph)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The pressure was 1001.9 at the second flight level wind shift.
Isn't the center still tilted to the northeast from the surface low?
Isn't the center still tilted to the northeast from the surface low?
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Evil Jeremy wrote:Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.
Yep, that left me scratching my head. I have no doubt this will be updated
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Weatherboy1 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:SFMR
55 knots
(~ 63.3 mph)
Flight level
60 knots
Like I said earlier ... appeared to be rapidly intensifying - which recon is now confirming
(~ 69.0 mph)
What!!??!
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.
Yep, that left me scratching my head. I have no doubt this will be updated
Updated as in within this advisory cycle? We've had those updates before when some of the Caribbean islands update watches/warnings maybe a half hour after an advisory is issued, but I can't recall that happening with the states.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What the hell? Recon heading north and pressures rose to 1013mb, but then suddenly dropped to 1001mb without a windshift. Doesn't appear to be due to the change in the planes altitude.


Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I believe John Morales has said before that the wind probabilities are based off the airport location, so MIA is further inland than PBI and FLL.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Evil Jeremy wrote:SFLcane wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.
Yep, that left me scratching my head. I have no doubt this will be updated
Updated as in within this advisory cycle? We've had those updates before when some of the Caribbean islands update watches/warnings maybe a half hour after an advisory is issued, but I can't recall that happening with the states.
Next advisory I meant.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Just your typical reorginization of the llc during the life a deepening TS.
it will stabelize shortly.
it will stabelize shortly.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
55 knot FL winds in a 40 mph TS?
This thing is ready to explode
This thing is ready to explode

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:What the hell? Recon heading north and pressures rose to 1013mb, but then suddenly dropped to 1001mb without a windshift. Doesn't appear to be due to the change in the planes altitude.
https://i.imgur.com/mcL3LUB.png
There are some outflow boundaries visible moving out from under the Southwest side of the circulation so its still in transformation.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
boca wrote:Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?
It’s expected to slowdown after Cuba.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:55 knot FL winds in a 40 mph TS?
This thing is ready to explode
Not really. It’s in the middle of a center reformation and might’ve been underestimated earlier. Even with this, I don’t think it’ll get above 70 kt before landfall in Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:boca wrote:Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?
It’s expected to slowdown after Cuba.
Thanks because that was my next question if a slow down were to happen in the Florida straits.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
We've ALL been fooled before by sat presentation but I can't help to think Eta's structure is recovering in such a way that wasn't expected.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
boca wrote:Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?
I would think that just means it runs into the high pressure wall to it's North sooner, not that Eta would be substantially further North as it pertains to it's first Florida landfall.
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