ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Recon going to be interesting if we finally have a well defined llc under that convection if we should start paying attention to the models. I am also pretty sure this is now a TS my guess 45-50 mph.

[Cat5James]

12Z Guidance is out... northward shift... landfall anywhere from middle Keys to PBC

[aspen]

Judging by visible satellite loops, I believe we’re looking at a tilted TC, with Eta’s LLC on the edge of its convective mass and the MLC somewhere within the deepest convection. Just my two cents. We will know within the next hour or so once recon arrives.

[SFLcane]

12Z Guidance is out... northward shift... landfall anywhere from middle Keys to PBC

Indeed.. consensus tcvn model is now north of official forecast I am expecting a shift north in track at 10am likely.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1325062644055859200

[SFLcane]

Judging by visible satellite loops, I believe we’re looking at a tilted TC, with Eta’s LLC on the edge of its convective mass and the MLC somewhere within the deepest convection. Just my two cents. We will know within the next hour or so once recon arrives.

It’s likely under convection now.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely looks more organized and the LLC established within the convection. I suspect Recon will find a 50mph TS.

[NDG]

Judging by visible satellite loops, I believe we’re looking at a tilted TC, with Eta’s LLC on the edge of its convective mass and the MLC somewhere within the deepest convection. Just my two cents. We will know within the next hour or so once recon arrives.

It’s likely under convection now.

https://i.postimg.cc/vZrJngq7/6425-E3-A6-C383-4-DA3-9-CFE-C563-F9-FF7765.jpg

That is definitely the LLC, winds have switched from the East over the Cayman Islands, it is much further South and East than estimated at 12z by the NHC.

[Blown Away]

12Z Guidance is out... northward shift... landfall anywhere from middle Keys to PBC

Indeed.. consensus tcvn model is now north of official forecast I am expecting a shift north in track at 10am likely.

Eta keeps moving S of the track resulting in a flattening of the turns.

[SFLcane]

12Z Guidance is out... northward shift... landfall anywhere from middle Keys to PBC

Indeed.. consensus tcvn model is now north of official forecast I am expecting a shift north in track at 10am likely.

Eta keeps moving S of the track resulting in a flattening of the turns.

Exactly instead of a sharp turn potentially.

[aspen]

Recon just found what looks like a circulation WAY outside of the convective mass.

[caneseddy]

Indeed.. consensus tcvn model is now north of official forecast I am expecting a shift north in track at 10am likely.

Eta keeps moving S of the track resulting in a flattening of the turns.

Exactly instead of a sharp turn potentially.

Wouldn’t that also give it a couple more hours north of Cuba to potentially strengthen a bit more because of the turn being more gradual?

[wxman57]

Eta's center may well track just north of the Cayman Islands. Will be close. One thing has been consistent in the models - the environment will be the most favorable for strengthening as Eta nears south Florida Sunday night/Monday morning. Once it moves west of the Peninsula, dry air and wind shear will gradually lead to its demise.

[Dean4Storms]

Recon just found what looks like a circulation WAY outside of the convective mass.

Saw that, most likely a vortex rotating around the center to the SE.

[SFLcane]

Eta's center may well track just north of the Cayman Islands. Will be close. One thing has been consistent in the models - the environment will be the most favorable for strengthening as Eta nears south Florida Sunday night/Monday morning. Once it moves west of the Peninsula, dry air and wind shear will gradually lead to its demise.

Hurricane watch still coming?

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon just found what looks like a circulation WAY outside of the convective mass.

I think there were 2 centers yesterday, perhaps another center is closer to convection? Pressures on the high side with the center they found.

[Dean4Storms]

Eta's center may well track just north of the Cayman Islands. Will be close. One thing has been consistent in the models - the environment will be the most favorable for strengthening as Eta nears south Florida Sunday night/Monday morning. Once it moves west of the Peninsula, dry air and wind shear will gradually lead to its demise.

Strangely enough the ECM continues to blow it up into a hurricane out west of the Peninsula in the eastern Gulf. It does get nailed eventually by the dry air and becomes much of nothing headed toward the FL Panhandle.

[NDG]

Recon is already showing that the Eta's center is further south and east than estimated earlier this morning.

[wxman57]

Recon just found what looks like a circulation WAY outside of the convective mass.

Not a center. Not part of Eta. Looks like plane is now having communications issues.

[Blown Away]

Eta's center may well track just north of the Cayman Islands. Will be close. One thing has been consistent in the models - the environment will be the most favorable for strengthening as Eta nears south Florida Sunday night/Monday morning. Once it moves west of the Peninsula, dry air and wind shear will gradually lead to its demise.

Cayman’s are outside of the NHC previous advisory cone, so in the short term Eta is going S and E of the NHC track.