ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

This is part of the 2:39 am NWS Tampa Forecast Discussion:....... "Moving into Sunday, we will begin to see the effects of what will
be our main weather story for the next 5 to 7 days - Tropical
Storm Eta. While the system is still a Depression, it is expected
to strengthen sometime today back into a Tropical Storm. Eta will
move across Cuba late tonight into early tomorrow. Interaction
with an upper level trough swinging into the Gulf of Mexico will
lead to this becoming an interesting system, for a lack of better
words... While Eta is expected to remain a tropical storm through
its life cycle, the aforementioned upper level trough will result
in some subtropical-like characteristics to take place and spread
impacts far away from the center. In fact, it`s advised not to
pay close attention to the track of the center as the rain and
wind field will expand once it moves north of Cuba, especially to
the north and east of the center. As Eta looses its synoptic
steering due to blocking high off the Carolina coastline, the
storm will slide back off to the west, then north, and models are
in pretty good agreement on this happening. Monday we will likely
see the most squally weather as the storm moves near the Keys, or
perhaps over South FL. Mainly speaking for areas south of I-4,
expect gusty tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall with
isolated flooding certainly becoming a more likely scenario."

[underthwx]

ETA looking better organized

[underthwx]

4 am NHC advisory extends the Tropical Storm watch northward along the Florida peninsula..

[caneman]

Massive blow up and tightening of the system occurring

[underthwx]

Massive blow up and tightening of the system occurring

Yes, definitely looking healthier, ..I'm not sure how far northward the watch has been extended, they do mention warnings will likely go up later today, and if I understand it correctly, the watch portion may include Central Florida as well... correct me if I am wrong

[SFLcane]

[Steve H.]

Watch extended north along the east coast of Florida to the Indian River/brevard county line (sebastian inlet). Yes, looking healthier this morning.

[robbielyn]

Massive blow up and tightening of the system occurring

Yes, definitely looking healthier, ..I'm not sure how far northward the watch has been extended, they do mention warnings will likely go up later today, and if I understand it correctly, the watch portion may include Central Florida as well... correct me if I am wrong

only up to Naples.

[underthwx]

Massive blow up and tightening of the system occurring

Yes, definitely looking healthier, ..I'm not sure how far northward the watch has been extended, they do mention warnings will likely go up later today, and if I understand it correctly, the watch portion may include Central Florida as well... correct me if I am wrong

only up to Naples.

Thanks for your reply!...and good morning!

[robbielyn]

Yes, definitely looking healthier, ..I'm not sure how far northward the watch has been extended, they do mention warnings will likely go up later today, and if I understand it correctly, the watch portion may include Central Florida as well... correct me if I am wrong

only up to Naples.

Thanks for your reply!...and good morning!

Good morning!!

[Nimbus]

Low level Center is not under that big ball of convection, there must still be some shear from the southwest. Maybe a tropical storm with a well defined center by the end of the day though.

[wxman57]

Surface obs indicate a center under the convection now. Possibly a second center to the SW, but that one won't amount to much. Recon is on the way.

[caneman]

Massive blow up and tightening of the system occurring

Yes, definitely looking healthier, ..I'm not sure how far northward the watch has been extended, they do mention warnings will likely go up later today, and if I understand it correctly, the watch portion may include Central Florida as well... correct me if I am wrong

only up to Naples.

Looks to me like watches are all the way up to Ft.Myers

[Frank2]

Grand Cayman radar showing rain but not much else despite the satellite circular appearance - some turning in the first frame or two but the last two frames show that dissipating: https://www.accuweather.com/en/ky/georg ... adar/53291

P.S. Naples and Ft. Myers are 40 miles apart - not exactly "all the way up to" when it comes to watches. Right now the depression is still just that...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1325054530468405253

[NDG]

I am sure the Recon will find that Eta is a TS now. Not sure if the circulation that is racing will be passing to the south of The Cayman Islands is also the LLC. Recon will verify.

[robbielyn]

Yes, definitely looking healthier, ..I'm not sure how far northward the watch has been extended, they do mention warnings will likely go up later today, and if I understand it correctly, the watch portion may include Central Florida as well... correct me if I am wrong

only up to Naples.

Looks to me like watches are all the way up to Ft.Myers

no bonita beach just north of naples per public advisory from nhc. i said naples because my local news channel posted a graphic on twitter and it said naples. but it’s at Lee county line southward.

[NDG]

Cayman Island's pressure down to 1002 mb with steady winds at 29 mph, so I am sure Eta's pressure has to be in the upper 990s already.

07 Nov 7:08 am 77 75 94 ESE 29 2.49 Hvy Rain SCT014,OVC120 29.58 1002.0

[Weatherboy1]

Surface obs indicate a center under the convection now. Possibly a second center to the SW, but that one won't amount to much. Recon is on the way.

http://wxman57.com/images/Eta3.JPG

Was just going to say first visual images suggested old center was dying out and new center forming under the convection. Think it starts to ramp up now and we’ll have a TS confirmed by recon

[Cat5James]

I am sure the Recon will find that Eta is a TS now. Not sure if the circulation that is racing will be passing to the south of The Cayman Islands is also the LLC. Recon will verify.

https://i.imgur.com/nUze1EB.gif

Official track takes LLC well north of the Cayman Islands.. if the LLC in fact passes over/south of the islands that certainly has implications on overall track