ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

For my money, I expect TS watches at 4 pm Eastern for the Keys. Possibly a bit further up the east and west coast of FL. Depending on next batch of models and whether recon shows a disorganized mess or something getting its act together, watches could be extended as far as Palm Beach/Martin county line. Don’t think they go straight to hurricane watch unless storm really starts developing quickly

[Blown Away]

Wow, compared to 24 hours ago I think it’s improving by the hour and picking up speed to the NE... Seems to be consolidating near 17.5N/86W...

[Iceresistance]

Visible seeing an partly exposed center just offshore of Belize

[Iceresistance]

Wow, compared to 24 hours ago I think it’s improving by the hour and picking up speed to the NE... Seems to be consolidating near 17.5N/86W...

Ummmmm, what happened?

[jlauderdal]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

I'm confident that Miami will be under a hurricane watch by tomorrow afternoon. Possibly a hurricane warning by Sunday. No school.

You heard it here first folks! Buckle up SFL

I'm confident that Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties will be under a Hurricane watch, at least within the next 24 hours. I'm also confident that if you don't get gas for your generator within 6 hours you will be facing lines.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd be surprised if metro SFL wasn't in a TS/H watch at the same time as the Keys. Given effects for this will be felt well ahead of the actual circulation arriving (thanks to the somewhat hybrid nature we are expecting), there's little point in putting the Keys and SFL on different timelines. For me, the big question is if NHC goes straight to H watch. After re-reading the last discussion, it seems like the NHC thinks there is a worthwhile shot at intensification into a Hurricane. Unless their thought process changes over the next couple of hours, I'd expect them to err on the side of caution/upside.

The other question is timing. NHC currently has earliest arrival of winds in extreme SFL on early Sunday morning. If that's still the expectation in a couple hours, that already puts us within the 48 hour timeframe for watches, so I think it's fair to expect Hurricane Watches for SFL and the Keys at 4pm today. TS Watches at the absolute minimum, maybe Hurricane for the Keys/Miami and TS further up the coast.

EDIT: Can anyone recall a recent time when NHC suggested TS or Hurricane watches could be issued, and they went just with the TS Watches?

[chaser1]

I'm seeing a good deal of strong convection associated with the assumed LLC east of Belize, and associated with what appears to be a weak MLC to the east. Even though the broad low level circulation appears better defined compared to yesterday, I see no clear convective organization that I'd characterize as anything more then slow development. I know the forecast calls for a T.S. to develop today and landfall along the Cuban coast by early Sunday. It's got a little work before I'd tag it a TS.

[jlauderdal]

https://www.facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc ... &ref=notif

[SFLcane]

I'm confident that Miami will be under a hurricane watch by tomorrow afternoon. Possibly a hurricane warning by Sunday. No school.

You heard it here first folks! Buckle up SFL

I'm confident that Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties will be under a Hurricane watch, at least within the next 24 hours. I'm also confident that if you don't get gas for your generator within 6 hours you will be facing lines.

Already fueled and got supplies before the craziness begins

[Iceresistance]

Signal issues with BOTH planes (Yes, NOAA2 is flying there as well.)

[storminabox]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

I'm confident that Miami will be under a hurricane watch by tomorrow afternoon. Possibly a hurricane warning by Sunday. No school.

I’m guessing you haven’t seen the latest 12z GFS yet?

Not a good idea to base your forecast on every little change in the modeling. Gotta see if it's a trend before running with it.

[wxman57]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

I'm confident that Miami will be under a hurricane watch by tomorrow afternoon. Possibly a hurricane warning by Sunday. No school.

I’m guessing you haven’t seen the latest 12z GFS yet?

Sure, I've seen it and the EC run. I'm looking for trends, but single model run isn't a trend, it's an anomaly. As Eta passes south of that strong high on Sunday/Monday there will be quite a pressure gradient on the north side.

[Jr0d]

Had water in my generator's gas tank....working on flushing it now...go figure.

I do expect watches for us in the Keys tonight. Not sure they will with a hurricane watch though.

So far no word from Monroe County in terms of shutting down the keys to tourists and evacuation orders.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems clear center of circulation now off shore. So IF Eta is going to get its act together, the next 24 hours are its best chance to do so. Will have to watch closely to see if it can spin up to something formidable or not ...

[AutoPenalti]

No mention of any TC coming to FL, business as usual.

Eerie though because of elections.

[galaxy401]

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14232

Eta has left devastation in Central America. Over 100 deaths now with many of them in Guatemala.

[AutoPenalti]

3 competing vorticites?

[sponger]

Definitely time to gas up the generator and start freezing water jugs if you are in South or Central Florida. I like to have a huge bag of ice for the cooler so you can leave the fridge closed until it is safe to fire up the gen. Make sure your fridge is turned up to maximum on Sunday.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7002541/eta-left-150-dead-in-guatemala-president/?cs=14232

Eta has left devastation in Central America. Over 100 deaths now with many of them in Guatemala.

Lots been going on Eta was a devastating storm for the people down there and the storm in the Philippines. There should be more coverage and discussion of this.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/utEEaRp.gif

3 competing vorticites?

3?

I only see the one, but that does not mean thet there is more, Isaias & Marco had the same issue in their beginnings.