ATL: ETA - Models

[jlauderdal]

These shifts (slightly) N and E will need to be monitored. GFS, HMON, HWRF all shifted vs 0Z ... curious to see if that happens during midday cycle too

nhc has been left of tvcn so lets see if they bring it right, they probably will need to bring it into south dade county on the next disco...intensity always a mystery so I am preparing for a cat 1 but even with a strong ts, we have overhead lines on the east side of fort laud so 50 will do it...last week in nc we never went above 45 and power went down..we actually had higher gusts the night after zeta as there was some serious upslope action, power didn't go down

[NDG]

According to the HWRF and GFS, strong winds possibly gusting to hurricane force could cover a large area all the way to the Treasure coast.
Sounding forecast shows 75-85 knot winds just a few hundred feet above the surface near Palm Beach, strong convection could bring some of those winds down in downdrafts.

[TheProfessor]

The 6z HMON crawls southwest of Florida before turning east and landfalling in south Florida again. That would bring horrific rain totals to some areas if that were to occur.

[jlauderdal]

According to the HWRF and GFS, strong winds possibly gusting to hurricane force could cover a large area all the way to the Treasure coast.
Sounding forecast shows 75-85 knot winds just a few hundred feet above the surface near Palm Beach, strong convection could bring some of those winds down in downdrafts.

https://i.imgur.com/7Cevh9q.png

good point about mixing down the winds...key west to Jupiter needs to prepare for a cat 1, might need to move that to the north another 100 miles, lets see what nhc and the euro does

[NDG]

According to the HWRF and GFS, strong winds possibly gusting to hurricane force could cover a large area all the way to the Treasure coast.
Sounding forecast shows 75-85 knot winds just a few hundred feet above the surface near Palm Beach, strong convection could bring some of those winds down in downdrafts.

https://i.imgur.com/7Cevh9q.png

good point about mixing down the winds...key west to Jupiter needs to prepare for a cat 1, might need to move that to the north another 100 miles, lets see what nhc and the euro does

We know the Euro over amplifies ridges and the GFS under amplifies it a lot of times, so I would say a consensus between the GFS and Euro is a good bet at this time.

[NDG]

06z Euro, stronger and a little closer to the GFS.

[SFLcane]

06z Euro, stronger and a little closer to the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/D1uNqcP.gif

https://i.imgur.com/DQKtwEX.gif

Time to prepare for a hurricane South Florida!

[Blown Away]

06z Euro, stronger and a little closer to the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/D1uNqcP.gif

https://i.imgur.com/DQKtwEX.gif

Time to prepare for a hurricane South Florida!

Wow, that seems like a sizable move N & E from the Euro compared to 00z?

[SFLcane]

06z Euro, stronger and a little closer to the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/D1uNqcP.gif

https://i.imgur.com/DQKtwEX.gif

Time to prepare for a hurricane South Florida!

Wow, that seems like a sizable move N & E from the Euro compared to 00z?

Yes it is and stronger to!

[SFLcane]

Wow at these 12z models!

[NDG]

Wow at these 12z models!

https://i.postimg.cc/hPCMm4Jf/56478298-5525-42-CF-A3-C6-84-C021-E00-A31.png

The NHC will have no option but to move its track further north and east following the 12z TVCN.

[Cat5James]

Wow at these 12z models!

https://i.postimg.cc/hPCMm4Jf/56478298-5525-42-CF-A3-C6-84-C021-E00-A31.png

Landfall all but guaranteed between the Keys and PBC

[Nuno]

So much for climatology and history...

[crimi481]

That model graphic implies s.w. Florida will be in thick of it - i do believe. I am in Venice

[HurricaneFrances04]

So much for climatology and history...

A tropical storm hitting Florida from the east...that is currently near/over Belize.

[SFLcane]

Were is that shield now?

[chaser1]

So much for climatology and history...

A tropical storm hitting Florida from the east...that is currently near/over Belize.

Right, good luck finding THAT in the 'ol history books LOL

[ronjon]

Think ETA is going to catch a lot of Floridians by surprise with predicted landfall in 66 hrs in S FL. Fortunately it doesn't look like it'll get above CAT 1 in strength - although as others have said it only takes moderate tropical storm force conditions to lose power. Me, on the Florida west coast, am worried about the storm stalling or meandering off the coast for several days bringing perhaps multiple rounds of storm surge inundation to the coast. It does appear that the system will wind down in the eastern GOM with time so that is a plus right now with the models.

[jlauderdal]

Were is that shield now?

in my garage, 50 gallons

[SconnieCane]

Were is that shield now?

Eh, it won't (barring something dramatic being missed by the models, which can't be ruled out) be a 120kt+ monster, so technically the shield still holds.

Apparently the "Shield" only refers to worst-case scenario impacts to the peninsula (thus Michael doesn't count, and neither does Irma since it got a chunk taken out of it by Cuba first).