Will Eta be upgraded to category 5 in post-season analysis?

[Dean_175]

What are your thoughts?

[Sciencerocks]

I'd be more shocked if Eta isn't upgraded to a cat5 then Michael 2018, LORENZO 2019, Matthew 2016, felix 2007, Emily 2005. I'd be freaking floored. This had one of the highest satellite estimates in atlantic history(8.3)!

There is Not even the slightest possibility in hell that at peak intensity that this didn't have at least 145-150 knot winds. There's plenty of extremely respectable members(including pro-mets trained in meteorology) of this board and through out the tropicphere online that have watched these systems for decades comparing this cyclones to Wilma, Dorian, Gilbert, etc and some of the most powerful cyclones of the western Pacific. These People that have a lot of passion and decades and even centuries of combined knowledge in watching these systems.

Some of them where comparing this storm to Tips, Gay, Wilma and Gilbert.

[aspen]

I think it should be, but I’m unsure if it will be. All of the evidence for Eta being a Category 5 are based off of what recon was able to observe to determine what the other flight was unable to sample: stronger winds in the NW quadrant and a lowest pressure of 910-918 mbar. I don’t know if the NHC would be willing to make such a big upgrade based on so much indirect evidence.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I think so. It was borderline with recon there and it looks like it continued to strengthen for at least 2-3 hours after recon had to leave. I feel they will probably bump it up to 140kts in the post-season. I'll say 140kts 912mb peak.

[ElectricStorm]

I think it's safe to assume it reached Cat 5 after recon left. It's unfortunate the next one had to turn back because that would have been the telling mission. The pressure was early still dropping when recon left and the winds were just about there so it's safe to assume it got to 140kts. The problem is the NHC doesn't do assumptions, they like hard evidence, and none of the evidence from the recon that was there showed any support for an upgrade. Do I think it was a Cat 5? Yes 100%. Will NHC upgrade? Not sure

[FireRat]

I think ETA definitely merits an upgrade to at least a 140 Kt Cat 5, even if it was for just a few hours. Recon's troubles are good reason for going off a blended satellite imagery estimate that at the lowest, would suggest a 140 Kt Category 5 hurricane, which is reasonably conservative. Also if I'm not mistaken, the pressure recon did find was in the 920s... so Andrew would be around that (922 mb).

If the NHC keeps it as a 4 I'd be kinda bummed because this would be even more hugely significant considering it may have been only the 2nd Atlantic Cat 5 in November in recorded history, AND would also keep the Category 5 streak alive for yet another year, making this the 5th straight year with a Cat 5.

This thing was like Hagibis in the WPAC for Pete's sake.

[MarioProtVI]

NHC is very conservative especially with C5 upgrades (especially since after 2017), and rarely upgrade without conclusive evidence. Most of the data IMO points to a peak of 135 kt / 923 mb at 06z, which I believe is what they will likely do so with in TCR. Also I heard the Dvorak reading was only so high because the tropopause is cooler in the Atlantic during November then it is at peak season, thus why we saw such levels of vigorous deep convection in Eta’s eyewall register such a high T value. Sometimes Dvorak underestimates and overestimates storms so I would not take it face value.

[euro6208]

I go with 135 knots based on real-time evidence that was available at the time.

No direct evidence this was a cat 5. We cannot assume it was stronger etc pressure was likely this and that after recon left, the strongest quadrant wasn't sampled...

In addition, the highest dvorak T number was only 6.5, below the threshold of a cat 5.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes no doubt, too bad recon kept getting aborted.

[ElectricStorm]

I go with 135 knots based on real-time evidence that was available at the time.

No direct evidence this was a cat 5. We cannot assume it was stronger etc pressure was likely this and that after recon left, the strongest quadrant wasn't sampled...

In addition, the highest dvorak T number was only 6.5, below the threshold of a cat 5.

No offense but how can you say that when you assume a ton of the WPAC storms are underrated lol?

[Ptarmigan]

I think Eta will be upgraded to Category 5.

[Kingarabian]

I think it's 50/50. I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) even flight level winds were not even that convincing.

[CyclonicFury]

It's far from a lock that Eta gets upgraded. In fact, I'm leaning strongly towards no. When upgrading by a full category in post-analysis (especially Category 5), NHC usually wants to see very conclusive evidence before doing so.

When recon was in the storm, not even SFMR - which often has a high bias in very intense TCs - supported Category 5 intensity. Granted, the NW quad was never sampled. The maximum flight-level wind observed by recon was 137 kt, and the maximum SFMR wind was 135 kt. I think a slight bump up to 135 kt is possible since Eta was still deepening quickly before the plane left. By the time of the next flight around 12z November 3, Eta had weakened well below Category 5 intensity.

Although the raw ADT values reached as high as T8.4, the subjective SAB fixed peaked at T6.5 just before 06z. I'm not sure about TAFB, though. I think the cold tropopause typical of the deep tropics in November made Eta look much stronger than it actually was. This makes me wonder if some pinhole/very cold CDO WPAC storms, like Hagibis last year, were actually weaker than estimated.

[ElectricStorm]

It's far from a lock that Eta gets upgraded. In fact, I'm leaning strongly towards no. When upgrading by a full category in post-analysis (especially Category 5), NHC usually wants to see very conclusive evidence before doing so.

When recon was in the storm, not even SFMR - which often has a high bias in very intense TCs - supported Category 5 intensity. Granted, the NW quad was never sampled. The maximum flight-level wind observed by recon was 137 kt, and the maximum SFMR wind was 135 kt. I think a slight bump up to 135 kt is possible since Eta was still deepening quickly before the plane left. By the time of the next flight around 12z November 3, Eta had weakened well below Category 5 intensity.

Although the raw ADT values reached as high as T8.4, the subjective SAB fixed peaked at T6.5 just before 06z. I'm not sure about TAFB, though. I think the cold tropopause typical of the deep tropics in November made Eta look much stronger than it actually was. This makes me wonder if some pinhole/very cold CDO WPAC storms, like Hagibis last year, were actually weaker than estimated.

I normally would agree 100 percent, as there was no recon data supporting Cat 5. However, during the one recon mission that actually made it to the storm with no issues the day it peaked, the pressure fell from 927 to 922mb between the two passes, and the winds were almost to Cat 5. Assuming the pressure fell a few more mb before the ERC, the winds likely would have increased a bit more too and I would say Eta for sure got to Cat 5, but only very briefly. I'm sure the NHC will take that into account in the post season analysis so whatever their final call is will likely be the right one.

[CrazyC83]

Leaning against it. The most convincing data point was the 135 kt SFMR plus strengthening after the flight left. However, I don't believe the data is conclusive enough.

My estimate for the peak intensity was 135 kt at 06Z (assuming 130 kt at that point plus additional deepening) with a pressure of 919 mb, the latter is based on additional deepening after the flight left to when its satellite signature peaked. I also think Eta weakened to a cat 3 during the ERC, but re-intensified back to cat 4 (120 kt) at landfall, based on satellite analyses.

[bob rulz]

If the SFMR supported a potential 135kt storm, and it continued deepening after recon left, how would that not be conclusive enough for an upgrade?

Lorenzo got upgraded based entirely on satellite estimates, no? I am leaning towards yes, but of course, I am not an expert by any means.

[CrazyC83]

If the SFMR supported a potential 135kt storm, and it continued deepening after recon left, how would that not be conclusive enough for an upgrade?

Lorenzo got upgraded based entirely on satellite estimates, no? I am leaning towards yes, but of course, I am not an expert by any means.

Flight level winds did not support more than about 125 kt. That said, the limited sampling does add some credential towards it.

[SconnieCane]

If the SFMR supported a potential 135kt storm, and it continued deepening after recon left, how would that not be conclusive enough for an upgrade?

Lorenzo got upgraded based entirely on satellite estimates, no? I am leaning towards yes, but of course, I am not an expert by any means.

Honestly I don't see how you can not upgrade Eta without also downgrading Lorenzo to 155 or 150kt.

[Ubuntwo]

I doubt it, as with most of these 2020 prospective category bumps.