ATL: ETA - Models

[Spacecoast]

0z GEFS:

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF... Landfall Homestead @70 hours... 979 mb, first model to go below 980 mb...

00z HMON... Landfall Miami @75 hours... 986 mb

[xironman]

More energy digging into the trough. Ends up more GFS-ish

[AdamFirst]

06z GFS coming in similarly to past runs. A couple MB stronger than 00z as it swings to the left of Andros making the turn. 981 MB just offshore Miami-Dade County.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS coming in similarly to past runs. A couple MB stronger than 00z as it swings to the left of Andros making the turn. 981 MB just offshore Miami-Dade County.

Indeed! Near 980mb with landfall in Miami.

[Cat5James]

06z GFS coming in similarly to past runs. A couple MB stronger than 00z as it swings to the left of Andros making the turn. 981 MB just offshore Miami-Dade County.

Indeed! Near 980mb with landfall in Miami.

https://i.imgur.com/OCHS5R8.jpg

Kendall area

[Cat5James]

HMON has shifted 80 miles east through 60 hours into Andros island...

[Blown Away]

06z HMON... 78 hrs 984 mb strong Cat 1... Boca Raton landfall

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... 69 hours 982 mb strong Cat 1... JLauderdale landfall...

[jhpigott]

06z HWRF... 69 hours 982 mb strong Cat 1... JLauderdale landfall...

Yep - And at hour 72 on the 06z HWRF it's at 981 just south of Lake O. Definitely should reschedule the camping trip to Jonathan Dickenson that I have planned this weekend

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... 69 hours 982 mb strong Cat 1... JLauderdale landfall...

Yep - And at hour 72 on the 06z HWRF it's at 981 just south of Lake O. Definitely should reschedule the camping trip to Jonathan Dickenson that I have planned this weekend

Both the HMON & HWRF dropping the go way out into the GOM and doing small loop and/or stalling around the W FL coast now...

[chris_fit]

Here are the 06 GFS Ens - Noticeably most of them are North and East of the official track. Not liking the stall off the W Coast of FL Trend.

[AdamFirst]

Anyone have the 06z EURO? Waiting to see if it caves.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 06z EURO? Waiting to see if it caves.

Not running just yet

[jlauderdal]

06z HWRF... 69 hours 982 mb strong Cat 1... JLauderdale landfall...

yep, the trend has been east of the nhc line...going to get 50 gallons for the genny in the next hour...some of you may have seen my post last week, I was in the mountains of western north carolina when zeta came through, lost power for 8 hours...saw trees blocking the road Friday in Atlanta...unlike in nc, I have the full power of the genny, etc in sofla..still think this is more about the rain than the wind but if you lose power and don't have a genny, its all about the power

[Weatherboy1]

These shifts (slightly) N and E will need to be monitored. GFS, HMON, HWRF all shifted vs 0Z ... curious to see if that happens during midday cycle too

[Cat5James]

If you look at max wind speeds for these models, the wind is lagging behind the pressure... None are actually showing a hurricane quite yet

[xironman]

06z HWRF... 69 hours 982 mb strong Cat 1... JLauderdale landfall...

Yep - And at hour 72 on the 06z HWRF it's at 981 just south of Lake O. Definitely should reschedule the camping trip to Jonathan Dickenson that I have planned this weekend

Both the HMON & HWRF dropping the go way out into the GOM and doing small loop and/or stalling around the W FL coast now...

All the models now showing a boatload of continental dry air surging across the gulf in the later time period, there is no dynamics to draw up air from the subtropics. Eta will whither in the desert at that point.

[Nimbus]

06z HWRF... 69 hours 982 mb strong Cat 1... JLauderdale landfall...

yep, the trend has been east of the nhc line...going to get 50 gallons for the genny in the next hour...some of you may have seen my post last week, I was in the mountains of western north carolina when zeta came through, lost power for 8 hours...saw trees blocking the road Friday in Atlanta...unlike in nc, I have the full power of the genny, etc in sofla..still think this is more about the rain than the wind but if you lose power and don't have a genny, its all about the power

Pretty good model agreement for position at 48 hours with the 6Z runs and NHC is starting to move the track north as this evolves. Official forecast mentioned dry air intrusion keeping intensity down at that time. Still some warm water off south Florida so hopefully the trough breakdown doesn't stall it there.

[NDG]

Yep - And at hour 72 on the 06z HWRF it's at 981 just south of Lake O. Definitely should reschedule the camping trip to Jonathan Dickenson that I have planned this weekend

Both the HMON & HWRF dropping the go way out into the GOM and doing small loop and/or stalling around the W FL coast now...

All the models now showing a boatload of continental dry air surging across the gulf in the later time period, there is no dynamics to draw up air from the subtropics. Eta will whither in the desert at that point.

There can be all the dry air around it you want but if the system is not affected by shear it will have its own moist environment. GFS clearly shows a stacked circulation near S FL.