ATL: ETA - Models

[Loveweather12]

AdamFirst you forgot this:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

You're making way too much of this system which right now per the NHC does not have an identifiable center.

On the WV loop, strong shear is evident from Cuba northward across the Florida Straits and that and the ULL forecast to form will make a big difference in what type of weather we will receive. No doubt the models will adjust their output during the day tomorrow and Saturday and that will help to define the system from that point on - if it forms.

From your post, I want to make sure I’m reading this right, are you saying we are in the clear in FL?
Just wanted to make sure I understand it right.

[Frank2]

Thanks, well we'll see - it's a mess right now and I'm going with the NHC thought of the past few days, that whatever forms will be more of a hybrid or extra-tropical system. The models are still making adjustments for lack of data and a center so things will change...

[Frank2]

From your post, I want to make sure I’m reading this right, are you saying we are in the clear in FL?
Just wanted to make sure I understand it right.

No, but see my above comment regarding what the NHC thinks might form of the renants of Eta will be less tropical and more hybrid...

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the 0z GFS. Would this be a hurricane for South Florida??




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[SFLcane]

00z gfs coming into SFL 980’s mb

[SFLcane]

Here is the 0z GFS. Would this be a hurricane for South Florida??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201106/29a3e24db253c0a2fea6be3c4c5973cc.jpg


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I guarantee you our power will be out that’s all that matters lol.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... 985 mb Cat 1/2 into Key Largo in 72 hours... Slight S shift

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Is that the most recent run its say 12:01 AM its only 11:20 pm here

[toad strangler]

Is that the most recent run its say 12:01 AM its only 11:20 pm here

It's the run happening now. Don't look at the forum time stamp on posts. Daylight savings didn't happen here lol

[AutoPenalti]

Actually, I’ll wait till the 06z. There’s still a little bit more time.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Toad.

[JPmia]

Can someone post the 18z Euro?

[Blown Away]

Is that the most recent run its say 12:01 AM its only 11:20 pm here

It's the run happening now. Don't look at the forum time stamp on posts. Daylight savings didn't happen here lol

Funny, none of us are use to tracking storms after daylight savings time... The NHC updates & model runs all confusing...

[Blown Away]

Can someone post the 18z Euro?

Go back a few pages, posted by SFLcane

[caneseddy]

CMC has a sheared TS into extreme upper Keys on Monday with all the dirty side in the metro areas

[ElectricStorm]

AdamFirst you forgot this:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

You're making way too much of this system which right now per the NHC does not have an identifiable center.

On the WV loop, strong shear is evident from Cuba northward across the Florida Straits and that and the ULL forecast to form will make a big difference in what type of weather we will receive. No doubt the models will adjust their output during the day tomorrow and Saturday and that will help to define the system from that point on - if it forms.

Well the NHC has a 65 mph TS skirting S Florida. It's likely gonna have time to get stronger than that too and the shear probably won't have that much of an impact on it. Kinda like Zeta in the gulf, but a weaker system. Gonna have to keep an eye on it for sure

[Spacecoast]

I am reluctant to talk about intensities, because many models will be very inaccurate until real system gets organized, but this plot implies that the tracks that take a wider turn , and (hypothetically) landfall between Homestead and WPB would be more intense (H1,H2) than those that take a sharper track.



Having said that, I would absolutely defer to NHC intensity guidance,as they have a much better track record than most models, (especially globals).

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON coming in much stronger South of Cuba.


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[Cat5James]

HMON coming in much stronger South of Cuba.


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Both Hurricane models are showing this reach hurricane strength before Cuba

[Blown Away]

HMON coming in much stronger South of Cuba.


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Both Hurricane models are showing this reach hurricane strength before Cuba

HWRF a bit slower, but it spent 18 hours in the same spot it’s in now... I guess it’s a possible solution, but don’t see Eta in the same spot around this time tomorrow.