ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

About worn out on the tropics this year but have to admit the evolution of how this plays out is purely weather geek stuff.

[Loveweather12]

Meh, that track may shift back.

Remember the cone just expresses where the center may be. Impacts will be felt regardless.

The trend this season is for the forecast cones to trend west as time progresses it seems, with only a few exceptions like Sally.

Every storm is different. I remember many on here saying the Storm was going W into EPAC and not to worry. Look at where we are.
We just have to watch this

[gatorcane]

Not to often you see the nhc not side by side with the TCVN consensus model. Not to sure what the overall thinking is.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDHxnSMy/5-CA80-BC0-55-CD-4017-BA21-DADFA37-DC4-BE.jpg

They have other models like the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensembles) which are probably close to the Euro as well which turn this west into the Gulf before reaching Southern Florida.

The story of this season as been strong high pressure which models have typically underestimated.

[TheStormExpert]

Not to often you see the nhc not side by side with the TCVN consensus model. Not to sure what the overall thinking is.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDHxnSMy/5-CA80-BC0-55-CD-4017-BA21-DADFA37-DC4-BE.jpg

One thing I will say is the TVCN brings Eta to South Florida in 72hrs., while the NHC has Eta over Cuba in 72hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

Not to often you see the nhc not side by side with the TCVN consensus model. Not to sure what the overall thinking is.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDHxnSMy/5-CA80-BC0-55-CD-4017-BA21-DADFA37-DC4-BE.jpg

They have other models like the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensembles) which are probably close to the Euro as well which turn this west into the Gulf before reaching Southern Florida.

The story of this season as been strong high pressure which models have typically underestimated.

I've never heard of that model.

[johngaltfla]

About worn out on the tropics this year but have to admit the evolution of how this plays out is purely weather geek stuff.

Post of the season!

[StAuggy]

Surprisingly high OHC just north of the western tip of Cuba.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al29/ohcnfcst/2020al29_ohcnfcst_202011051200.gif

Considering it’s November the entire east coast of FL also good enough to keep a storm at intensity

[Spacecoast]

Not to often you see the nhc not side by side with the TCVN consensus model. Not to sure what the overall thinking is.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDHxnSMy/5-CA80-BC0-55-CD-4017-BA21-DADFA37-DC4-BE.jpg

They have other models like the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensembles) which are probably close to the Euro as well which turn this west into the Gulf before reaching Southern Florida.

The story of this season as been strong high pressure which models have typically underestimated.

I've never heard of that model.

Florida State University Super-ensemble Corrected Consensus
Public access restricted due to agreement with the data provider.
Cycle Frequency: 6 hr (120 hr)
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Ensemble Consenus Members (according to NHC model page): AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI / NGPI

[Macrocane]

Eta has left severe impacts in Central America.

From Honduras

Eta has left deaths, floods, destroyed roads and victims in Honduras

Death toll rises to 11 in Honduras

From Nicaragua

In Wawa Bar everything has been destroyed

From Guatemala
rains, landslides and deaths in Guatemala

From Panama
Five deaths in Chiriquí and two missing people are reported

[TheStormExpert]

You guys might want to checkout the 18z "Happy Hour" GFS run!

[gatorcane]

Not to often you see the nhc not side by side with the TCVN consensus model. Not to sure what the overall thinking is.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDHxnSMy/5-CA80-BC0-55-CD-4017-BA21-DADFA37-DC4-BE.jpg

They have other models like the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensembles) which are probably close to the Euro as well which turn this west into the Gulf before reaching Southern Florida.

The story of this season as been strong high pressure which models have typically underestimated.

Also one other trend of 2020 is that storms end up stronger than originally modeled.

[Do_For_Love]

Eta has left severe impacts in Central America.

That's terrible. I had a feeling it was going to be bad considering the projected rainfall amounts.

[Iceresistance]

You guys might want to checkout the 18z "Happy Hour" GFS run!

Eta slamming into Florida & then Future Theta shows up in the Mid-Atlantic going towards the Eastern Atlantic

[Iceresistance]

Eta is getting closer to TS strength. 35 mph & 1005 MB & Tropical storm watches has been issued for the Cayman Islands

But, remember that this system is going to have higher than normal difficulties tracking the storm once it's back out in the West Carribbean, so good luck on where to track this.


And remember: no constant spamming or this will happen: , no -removed- & no Eta jokes on Central America since there is severe devastation there & I feel really bad for them

(I will not be readly on for a while until Eta is stronger & closer to landfall, good luck & keep tracking!)

[ElectricStorm]

Not to often you see the nhc not side by side with the TCVN consensus model. Not to sure what the overall thinking is.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDHxnSMy/5-CA80-BC0-55-CD-4017-BA21-DADFA37-DC4-BE.jpg

They have other models like the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensembles) which are probably close to the Euro as well which turn this west into the Gulf before reaching Southern Florida.

The story of this season as been strong high pressure which models have typically underestimated.

Also one other trend of 2020 is that storms end up stronger than originally modeled.

And also pretty much every storm has had some sort of a complicated setup

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone

In the models discussion page I have seen a few recent model runs showing a stronger and more east progression with Eta, so why does the track seem to be staying with the sharp left turn, not buying that, not so sharp anyway.

[jlauderdal]

Evening everyone

In the models discussion page I have seen a few recent model runs showing a stronger and more east progression with Eta, so why does the track seem to be staying with the sharp left turn, not buying that, not so sharp anyway.

Me either, nhc is crushes track forecasting

[Blown Away]

Evening everyone

In the models discussion page I have seen a few recent model runs showing a stronger and more east progression with Eta, so why does the track seem to be staying with the sharp left turn, not buying that, not so sharp anyway.

Me either, nhc is crushes track forecasting

The current NHC advisory does not have the 18z model runs... The next advisory will have a dramatic track change probably into SFL as Cat 1 if they give weight to these model runs...
Or they will continue hanging their hat on the Euro, not a bad bet in a pinch...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Blownaway

I need to make decisions Lol both for Key Largo and Miami, so cant wait to much longer to decide.

[Blown Away]

Blownaway

I need to make decisions Lol both for Key Largo and Miami, so cant wait to much longer to decide.

Gotta wait for next advisory to see if they are giving heavy weight to these models... Usually if it was 5+ days out they would make subtle track change, but Keys could be @45 hours from TS force winds if the 18z is right... I expect dramatic change at next advisory...

Key Largo floods crazy... Ugh