ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheProfessor]

East shifts wouldn't surprise me just because we could see center reformations if convection is indeed sheared to the northeast. However it's very hard to forecast if that will happen or not so you almost have to wait until it's happening to adjust for it.

[wxman57]

East shifts wouldn't surprise me just because we could see center reformations if convection is indeed sheared to the northeast. However it's very hard to forecast if that will happen or not so you almost have to wait until it's happening to adjust for it.

I agree. We'll have to wait and see what forms and where it forms before we can confidently say where Eta is or isn't tracking.

[BlueWater36]

As if the 20 inches of rain we've received last month wasn't enough!

https://i.imgur.com/cBtO2J4.png

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
405 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Eta to move across Honduras
tonight into Thursday before moving back into the Northwest Caribbean
Sea by end of this week. NHC is then forecasting the system to move
into the Florida Straits over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend into early next week. The long range models are also showing
the frontal Boundary over the Florida Straits to move northward
back into South Florida this weekend, as a trough of low pressure
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for deep
tropical moisture to work into South Florida from the Caribbean
Sea this weekend into early next week where the PWAT values are in
the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range. These PWAT values are at the maximum
PWAT values for this time of year. This means that showers and
thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week.

Forecast rainfall totals from Thursday night through early next
week looks to be between 10 to 15 inches over the east coast
metro areas tapering down to 4 to 8 inches over the western areas
of South Florida. There could also be locally higher amounts with
any showers or thunderstorms that do train over the same area.
It should be stated that these amounts could easily change
with future forecast adjustments. But the key message is that a
potentially impactful flooding event is possible for the eastern
metro areas should these trends hold. A Flood Watch may be required
for some portion of our area with future forecast updates.

Where did you obtain this image?

I’m looking around the NWS Miami website, but I can’t seem to find it. Would you mind posting a link to the source or instructions on how to find that image?

Thank you!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Thank you for the link - How do I obtain the image in the post I originally quoted? The link only has text. I'm looking for an updated version of that particular graphic.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just watched JB's video from this morning and he is a lot more bullish on this than most other people. He thinks it is going to be a hurricane approaching Cuba and if it breaks the second troff could be a hurricane in the GOM...I'm not sure I buy any of that though.

[TheStormExpert]

Where did you obtain this image?

I’m looking around the NWS Miami website, but I can’t seem to find it. Would you mind posting a link to the source or instructions on how to find that image?

Thank you!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Thank you for the link - How do I obtain the image in the post I originally quoted? The link only has text. I'm looking for an updated version of that particular graphic.

The image was posted yesterday afternoon on the NWS: Miami page but has been taken down as of this morning as models trend south and west.

[TheStormExpert]

I just watched JB's video from this morning and he is a lot more bullish on this than most other people. He thinks it is going to be a hurricane approaching Cuba and if it breaks the second troff could be a hurricane in the GOM...I'm not sure I buy any of that though.

What a hype machine he is!

[BlueWater36]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Thank you for the link - How do I obtain the image in the post I originally quoted? The link only has text. I'm looking for an updated version of that particular graphic.

The image was posted yesterday afternoon on the NWS: Miami page but has been taken down as of this morning as models trend south and west.

Ah, that explains it then. Thank you for the clarification!

[Nuno]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Thank you for the link - How do I obtain the image in the post I originally quoted? The link only has text. I'm looking for an updated version of that particular graphic.

The image was posted yesterday afternoon on the NWS: Miami page but has been taken down as of this morning as models trend south and west.

I just watched JB's video from this morning and he is a lot more bullish on this than most other people. He thinks it is going to be a hurricane approaching Cuba and if it breaks the second troff could be a hurricane in the GOM...I'm not sure I buy any of that though.

What a hype machine he is!

You seem awfully confident this will be nothing for Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Thank you for the link - How do I obtain the image in the post I originally quoted? The link only has text. I'm looking for an updated version of that particular graphic.

The image was posted yesterday afternoon on the NWS: Miami page but has been taken down as of this morning as models trend south and west.

I just watched JB's video from this morning and he is a lot more bullish on this than most other people. He thinks it is going to be a hurricane approaching Cuba and if it breaks the second troff could be a hurricane in the GOM...I'm not sure I buy any of that though.

What a hype machine he is!

You seem awfully confident this will be nothing for Florida.

I never said it would be nothing, but I think it’ll just be a rain event for Florida, especially South Florida.

[boca]

A low pressure has to form so what the models say right now is a guessing game and if it forms further east than south Florida would be affected before the west turn.

[aspen]

I just watched JB's video from this morning and he is a lot more bullish on this than most other people. He thinks it is going to be a hurricane approaching Cuba and if it breaks the second troff could be a hurricane in the GOM...I'm not sure I buy any of that though.

If Eta ends up as a hurricane near Cuba, it’ll be nothing more than an ugly 65 kt slop-cane. Perhaps it has a chance to become something more significant if it stalls in the southern Gulf near the Keys/FL straits/Yucatán Channel; SSTs are still 28-29C there with decent OHC.

[Iceresistance]

I just watched JB's video from this morning and he is a lot more bullish on this than most other people. He thinks it is going to be a hurricane approaching Cuba and if it breaks the second troff could be a hurricane in the GOM...I'm not sure I buy any of that though.

If Eta ends up as a hurricane near Cuba, it’ll be nothing more than an ugly 65 kt slop-cane. Perhaps it has a chance to become something more significant if it stalls in the southern Gulf near the Keys/FL straits/Yucatán Channel; SSTs are still 28-29C there with decent OHC.

That is the tendancy of Eta, slowing down befoer landfall.

[Nuno]

The image was posted yesterday afternoon on the NWS: Miami page but has been taken down as of this morning as models trend south and west.

What a hype machine he is!

You seem awfully confident this will be nothing for Florida.

I never said it would be nothing, but I think it’ll just be a rain event for Florida, especially South Florida.

I suppose I worry that it could be like 1999's Irene, which while just a rain event for SFL was quite damaging in its flooding. The S & W trends worry me as it puts us on the dirty side.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track has Low almost at the coast.

AL, 29, 2020110518, , BEST, 0, 155N, 877W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ETA, M

[aspen]

Surprisingly high OHC just north of the western tip of Cuba.

[wxman57]

Well, consensus (TVCN) shifted from up the east coast of the Yucatan to the central Gulf at 6Z to clipping the western tip of Cuba and into the central Gulf at 12Z to cutting across central Cuba and into Miami at 18Z. Quite a bit of jumping around. I'm not sure what models are included, but certainly not the GFS or Euro, which still take it to north of western Cuba next Tue then slowly north, with a landfall east of Pensacola next Friday afternoon/night as a depression. Both do develop it into a hurricane in the southern Gulf, though. For now, I think I'll split the difference and have it pass south of Key West Monday afternoon then turn NW and N across the eastern Gulf, well west of Florida. Such a track would mean TS wind for the Keys and maybe as far north as Miami, depending on its structure.

I really have no good idea what it's going to do. Wish I could only issue a 5-day track like the NHC. I'm hoping it eventually develops a trackable circulation that the models can focus on. These wild swings from run to run don't make forecasting the track or intensity very easy.

[aspen]

Somehow I didn’t realize this until now, but I got Eta’s final deepening rate incorrect. It was actually 5.4 mb/hr: 927.4 mbar extrap at 02:16z and 922.4 mbar extrap at 03:12z, 56 minutes apart. This means it could’ve bottomed out even more than I was calculating.

Assuming it kept on going for another 2-3 hours leading up to the start of the EWRC (when the pinhole first started to degrade), Eta could’ve bottomed out at 906-912 mbar. It really sucks that the second AF plane had to turn back halfway.

[Cat5James]

Not directly related to ETA but Those rain estimates for SE Florida are looking more likely... I’m in the Suburbs of Ft Lauderdale and we’ve already picked up an inch in the last hour... streets already flooded.

[Kazmit]

Surprisingly high OHC just north of the western tip of Cuba.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al29/ohcnfcst/2020al29_ohcnfcst_202011051200.gif

Loop current

[Nimbus]

East shifts wouldn't surprise me just because we could see center reformations if convection is indeed sheared to the northeast. However it's very hard to forecast if that will happen or not so you almost have to wait until it's happening to adjust for it.

I agree. We'll have to wait and see what forms and where it forms before we can confidently say where Eta is or isn't tracking.

There is a lowish level spin just SW of San Miguel in the Pacific.
Doesn't seem to be pumping much convection yet so might be more mid level.
Usually if a system makes the cross and develops in the Pacific there is too much shear from the circulation for anything to get going int he Gulf of Honduras. So many models can't be wrong though?