ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

This setup varies depending on the eye of the beholder, but the low level circulation of Eta seems to have dissipated or elongated into a trough, leaving a broad envelope of low pressure more akin to a monsoonal gyre. I agree with others that any new low spinning up from this gyre is a new storm, not Eta. However, we have seen instances in the past where a storm opens up into a wave, but regenerates when a new low forms, keeping its name, so that will probably be the case here.

[cycloneye]

It will stay as ETA.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1324306388324126720

[Nuno]

It will stay as ETA.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1324306388324126720

Its just an easier solution messaging wise.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track continues with ETA.

AL, 29, 2020110512, , BEST, 0, 147N, 875W, 25, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ETA, M

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Lots of deep convection brewing in the NW Caribbean now.

[Michele B]

It will stay as ETA.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1324306388324126720

Its just an easier solution messaging wise.

I just hope it rings true. Ugly weather is just an inconvenience, but a tropical system or stronger this late in the season - don't want or need.

[wxman57]

Forecast uncertainty has increased considerably. Assuming Eta DOES reach TS strength in the Caribbean over the weekend, it may be steered west or WSW along the north coast of Cuba next Mon-Wed. Any landfall on the Gulf coast may be delayed until the following weekend, assuming there is something to make landfall. i hate this storm...

[TheStormExpert]

Forecast uncertainty has increased considerably. Assuming Eta DOES reach TS strength in the Caribbean over the weekend, it may be steered west or WSW along the north coast of Cuba next Mon-Wed. Any landfall on the Gulf coast may be delayed until the following weekend, assuming there is something to make landfall. i hate this storm...

So would it even be Eta or would they rename it Theta? I’m confused.

[HurricaneEnzo]

It looks like the system is so degraded near El Salvador and whatever goes on in the GOH so disconnected from the circulation they should give it a new name. Not to mention that Theta is an awesome name for a storm.

https://i.imgur.com/13s6DyW.gif

I agree. The circulation is clearly about to emerge in the Pacific.

Late tonight or tomorrow is when the models are showing a low form in the Gulf of Hondorus. I am not sure what the NHC will do.

I dunno. It’s always hard to tell from nighttime satellite imagery but to me, it APPEARS we’re starting to see a northerly turn. The longer term strength/path forecast is really dependent on how quick Eta makes the jump offshore. Likely not going to happen until tonight at the earliest, so until then we’re all kind of flying blind

Yep it is starting the turn North.

[Blown Away]

Forecast uncertainty has increased considerably. Assuming Eta DOES reach TS strength in the Caribbean over the weekend, it may be steered west or WSW along the north coast of Cuba next Mon-Wed. Any landfall on the Gulf coast may be delayed until the following weekend, assuming there is something to make landfall. i hate this storm...

Maybe the LLC will form farther ENE around the deep convection north of Honduras coast @16N/85W.

[wxman57]

Forecast uncertainty has increased considerably. Assuming Eta DOES reach TS strength in the Caribbean over the weekend, it may be steered west or WSW along the north coast of Cuba next Mon-Wed. Any landfall on the Gulf coast may be delayed until the following weekend, assuming there is something to make landfall. i hate this storm...

So would it even be Eta or would they rename it Theta? I’m confused.

The NHC has said that it will still be called Eta, just as they stuck with the name Cristobal early this season when the LLC dissipated over southern Mexico but another redeveloped. It would be very confusing for the public if suddenly a "Theta" developed where Eta was tracking.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1324197709897633792

[jlauderdal]

Forecast uncertainty has increased considerably. Assuming Eta DOES reach TS strength in the Caribbean over the weekend, it may be steered west or WSW along the north coast of Cuba next Mon-Wed. Any landfall on the Gulf coast may be delayed until the following weekend, assuming there is something to make landfall. i hate this storm...

Two weekends in jeopardy

[Jr0d]

Yep it is starting the turn North.

Tough to say if the circulation(whats left of it) is moving north. I was expecting the center to reform in the next 12 to 24 hours in the Gulf of Hondorus.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... &length=24

...as posted earlier, much more uncertainty this morning. Last night it was looking increasing likely that the Keys would have a hurricane to deal with early in the week....now who knows.

Wait and see, I hate playing that game. By tomorrow their should be a low over water and that will help greatly with the forecast.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Yep it is starting the turn North.

Tough to say if the circulation(whats left of it) is moving north. I was expecting the center to reform in the next 12 to 24 hours in the Gulf of Hondorus.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... &length=24

...as posted earlier, much more uncertainty this morning. Last night it was looking increasing likely that the Keys would have a hurricane to deal with early in the week....now who knows.

Wait and see, I hate playing that game. By tomorrow their should be a low over water and that will help greatly with the forecast.

A lot easier to see the Northerly motion in this loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[wxman57]

Looks like a remnant swirl of low clouds this morning. NHC should be downgrading it to a post-tropical remnant low shortly. Will they even continue advisories? Remember that when Harvey weakened to a remnant low in the central Caribbean the NHC stopped advisories, even though Harvey was predicted to redevelop (but in 4-5 days). Since Eta is predicted to redevelop over the weekend, I think the NHC will continue advisories. I now have it by the western tip of Cuba next Tuesday. NHC will likely shift that 120 hr point west and south.

[Blown Away]

Just an observation, NHC sticking with tracking or estimating where they think Eta’s circulation is even though nothing is there. The models are based on that estimation and resulting in crazy track we’ve never seen. My guess is if a new circulation forms again it will be much farther ENE @16N/85W where something seems to be pulling together. Then we should see a more reasonable track NE then maybe a NNW turn and then absorbed or shunted NE by the front next week.

[BlueWater36]

As if the 20 inches of rain we've received last month wasn't enough!

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
405 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Eta to move across Honduras
tonight into Thursday before moving back into the Northwest Caribbean
Sea by end of this week. NHC is then forecasting the system to move
into the Florida Straits over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend into early next week. The long range models are also showing
the frontal Boundary over the Florida Straits to move northward
back into South Florida this weekend, as a trough of low pressure
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for deep
tropical moisture to work into South Florida from the Caribbean
Sea this weekend into early next week where the PWAT values are in
the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range. These PWAT values are at the maximum
PWAT values for this time of year. This means that showers and
thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week.

Forecast rainfall totals from Thursday night through early next
week looks to be between 10 to 15 inches over the east coast
metro areas tapering down to 4 to 8 inches over the western areas
of South Florida. There could also be locally higher amounts with
any showers or thunderstorms that do train over the same area.
It should be stated that these amounts could easily change
with future forecast adjustments. But the key message is that a
potentially impactful flooding event is possible for the eastern
metro areas should these trends hold. A Flood Watch may be required
for some portion of our area with future forecast updates.

Where did you obtain this image?

I’m looking around the NWS Miami website, but I can’t seem to find it. Would you mind posting a link to the source or instructions on how to find that image?

Thank you!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Nimbus]

"Blown Away"]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=watl&product=ir



Shear induced lift but there probably will be monsoonal low surface pressure that will spin up a low somewhere. GFS has this meandering around the Caribbean a lot longer than HWRF which means at least two different steering patterns are under consideration.

[us89]

As if the 20 inches of rain we've received last month wasn't enough!

https://i.imgur.com/cBtO2J4.png

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
405 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Eta to move across Honduras
tonight into Thursday before moving back into the Northwest Caribbean
Sea by end of this week. NHC is then forecasting the system to move
into the Florida Straits over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend into early next week. The long range models are also showing
the frontal Boundary over the Florida Straits to move northward
back into South Florida this weekend, as a trough of low pressure
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for deep
tropical moisture to work into South Florida from the Caribbean
Sea this weekend into early next week where the PWAT values are in
the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range. These PWAT values are at the maximum
PWAT values for this time of year. This means that showers and
thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week.

Forecast rainfall totals from Thursday night through early next
week looks to be between 10 to 15 inches over the east coast
metro areas tapering down to 4 to 8 inches over the western areas
of South Florida. There could also be locally higher amounts with
any showers or thunderstorms that do train over the same area.
It should be stated that these amounts could easily change
with future forecast adjustments. But the key message is that a
potentially impactful flooding event is possible for the eastern
metro areas should these trends hold. A Flood Watch may be required
for some portion of our area with future forecast updates.

Where did you obtain this image?

I’m looking around the NWS Miami website, but I can’t seem to find it. Would you mind posting a link to the source or instructions on how to find that image?

Thank you!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0