ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CourierPR]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1324003331686150144

So are you saying there is the possibility of an intensifying storm?

[tomatkins]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201104/4012179bf1192a4377f7ca5c65579621.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Details are so important here. The center, or whatever is left of it, stay just barely over land for a full day in Belize. Shift that just slightly east and you get an extra day to get its act together before it eventually gets up towards Cuba.

[LarryWx]

So, no new reports today from Honduras?

[crownweather]

Rather than typing my thoughts on Eta based on what I've noticed on satellite imagery, I'll share my tweet.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1324007970523500545

[AutoPenalti]

Rather than typing my thoughts on Eta based on what I've noticed on satellite imagery, I'll share my tweet.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1324007970523500545

Well, we'll find out shortly, GFS is already SW of the 06z and stronger.

[Nimbus]

Rather than typing my thoughts on Eta based on what I've noticed on satellite imagery, I'll share my tweet.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1324007970523500545

Well, we'll find out shortly, GFS is already SW of the 06z and stronger.

HWRF and GFS have the center making the jump to the same coastal location which will need to verify first. We might be talking about shear lift from the inland location forming a low that will be under the divergent high flow. Monsoonal seething is hard to forecast so I'm not seeing much beyond climatology except for the initial NNE vectoring of the models that is in the official forecast.

Very thankful for the EWRC before landfall that dried out the CA forecast though.

[Weatherboy1]

GFS fair amount stronger on current run. “H” models (HWRF/HMON) also stronger earlier this morning. Still think this likely to be only a high-end TS or possible ST system crossing over or near FL. But watching to see if this trend continues. Breezy as heck here in Palm Beach County already due to strong ridge...but looking like it’ll get potentially much breezier in a few days!

[wxman57]

It's really uncertain what kind of a mess will emerge into the western Caribbean on Friday. I wouldn't put too much stock in any model's forecast of precisely where the new low center will form just yet. The track across Cuba and possibly over the FL Peninsula will be highly dependent on where the new center develops and how quickly it can organize south of Cuba. We won't have a better idea of possible FL impacts until Saturday.

[aspen]

So, no new reports today from Honduras?

With the way things are going in the US today, sadly, there’s no way the media will devote any time to Eta’s impacts.

[mitchell]

So, no new reports today from Honduras?

With the way things are going in the US today, sadly, there’s no way the media will devote any time to Eta’s impacts.

BBC is covering Eta

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54809744

[fci]

It's really uncertain what kind of a mess will emerge into the western Caribbean on Friday. I wouldn't put too much stock in any model's forecast of precisely where the new low center will form just yet. The track across Cuba and possibly over the FL Peninsula will be highly dependent on where the new center develops and how quickly it can organize south of Cuba. We won't have a better idea of possible FL impacts until Saturday.

You leaning towards the trend towards this being a GOM issue more than the slingshot to the Atlantic and then across the FL Peninsula (like King-1950)?

[wxman57]

It's really uncertain what kind of a mess will emerge into the western Caribbean on Friday. I wouldn't put too much stock in any model's forecast of precisely where the new low center will form just yet. The track across Cuba and possibly over the FL Peninsula will be highly dependent on where the new center develops and how quickly it can organize south of Cuba. We won't have a better idea of possible FL impacts until Saturday.

You leaning towards the trend towards this being a GOM issue more than the slingshot to the Atlantic and then across the FL Peninsula (like King-1950)?

Yes. Strong high pressure is indicated over the East U.S. Coast by Sunday/Monday, which should turn Eta NW past south Florida and into the eastern Gulf. Could clip south Florida. That high moves off to the east by Tuesday, allowing the turn back to the north.

[psyclone]

Yikes at that QPF estimate...tons of rain for east central and south florida. looks like 10" from about Boca south all the way to Key West on the current output.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1604514547

[SFLcane]

60mph officially peaking day 4 day 5 but NHC notes they are little below intensity consensus.

[aspen]

I have a feeling that once Eta finally finishes up for good, its final track will make Paulette’s look normal. The possibility of several turns around Florida/Cuba/the Bahamas are reminiscent of a cross between Gordon ‘94 and Fay ‘08.

[ElectricStorm]

Of course the NHC has it going into the gulf now... That's 2020 for ya, the gulf season

[Iceresistance]

Eta may be the storm that never dies!

[Ptarmigan]

Are there any reports out of Central America. It has been lingering over Central America.

[VortexFl]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat

This is Irene 99 type potential

https://i.postimg.cc/3JXDjSVm/637-D313-E-80-D1-4706-933-E-E27-B1448-DCD5.jpg

Unreal rainfall potential along the SE fl coast this weekend. & in November!!

[ElectricStorm]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat

This is Irene 99 type potential

https://i.postimg.cc/3JXDjSVm/637-D313-E-80-D1-4706-933-E-E27-B1448-DCD5.jpg

Unreal rainfall potential along the SE fl coast this weekend. & in November!!

Yeah it really doesn't matter how strong it gets that rain is going to be insane