ATL: ETA - Models

[TheProfessor]

If the scenario of sheared tropical storm plays out then the center moving just southwest of SFL would be the worst spot for the storm putting them on the wet side of it. It could be a nasty rainmaker for SFL in that case.

[Blown Away]

12z Icon

[Frank P]

https://i.imgur.com/ADslmcu.gif
12z Icon

I’m not a big fan of the ICON but one thing I am looking for in the models is any front driving down from the south to shunt where ever Eta is off to the northeast and east.. Latest TVCN has it moving towards the NGOM. This late in the season one would expect a front to drive down at the end of the forecast period and shunt it eastward. The latest ICON shows no such front..

[SFLcane]

12z GFS is stronger

[Patrick99]

ICON going with the rare Volusia County-to-St. Augustine landfall. Bold move.

[Blown Away]

ICON going with the rare Volusia County-to-St. Augustine landfall. Bold move.

The whole Eta track towards FL then back into the GOM... Classic bizarre November track...

[AutoPenalti]

Ruh-roh.

[AdamFirst]

GFS a bit slower in the evolution...but showing strengthening storm just offshore Miami-Dade at 120hr. Consistent with other recent solutions of the wide swing over the Bahamas back west to FL. I would say that's a strong TS or minimal hurricane.

[SFLcane]

Ruh-roh.

https://i.imgur.com/5z0cZEY.gif

Likely a minimal hurricane and looking much more tropical.

[AutoPenalti]

Ruh-roh.

https://i.imgur.com/5z0cZEY.gif

Likely a minimal hurricane and looking much more tropical.

Very sheared.

[Nuno]

I would imagine the gulf stream would certainly make it more likely that any system will be strengthening prior to approaching the peninsula

[gatorcane]

Ruh-roh.

https://i.imgur.com/5z0cZEY.gif

Likely a minimal hurricane and looking much more tropical.

Very sheared.

Very much so, Bahamas look to get the brunt.

[Blown Away]

Ruh-roh.

https://i.imgur.com/5z0cZEY.gif

12z GFS seemed to drop that multiple center gyrie... That could make it more of a FL threat I think...

[SFLcane]

Regardless trend is stronger in the 12z gfs

[N2FSU]

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[AdamFirst]

Eta still hanging around Florida 10 days from now according to the GFS.

[Weatherboy1]

CMC likes a “tip of Florida” landfall now too ... though noticeably weaker than GFS.

[SFLcane]

CMC likes a “tip of Florida” landfall now too ... though noticeably weaker than GFS.

About the same as the gfs also looking more tropical

[AdamFirst]

CMC solution would be a big rainmaker for SFL.

[aspen]

I’m getting a little concerned how the NHC forecast and some of the models don’t show Eta getting as far east anymore. Perhaps there’s a slim possibility of Eta getting blocked in the Caribbean, although a more likely outcome of a less east track is a longer time frame bringing impacts to Cuba and Florida.