ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/0GrJ7yX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/8pILmfg.jpg
King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

I was just about to post something along this line. The synoptic setup is pretty much textbook for a N-NW "slingshot" into Florida. Cutoff low over the GOMEX shears out into a negative tilt trough, with a strong blocking ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern U.S. coast. It's hard for me to envision this *not* having a significant impact on Florida.

Agreed. I think a reasonable wind event would range anywhere from a weak T.S to a Cat 1 hurricane. The biggest key however may be unlike King '50 where that storm took a pretty straight path right up the spine of Florida. If next week verifies, I'd think it could be a broader "nuisance" wind event possibly impacting many more people over a larger area. Precip impact might be tremendous if the system stalls or tracks erratically, or actually pulls off a hat-trick Florida landfall (Keys or S. Fla, then bend west over Central Fla. into the GOM, then north or NE over the Big Bend. Like always, timing will impact intensity and track. I'm thinking perhaps some blended average between the operational GFS-Para and Euro for ultimate track & timing, and the HWRF for plausible intensity.

My thoughts were most likely a mid-high end hybrid STS/TS type system (50-60kt) with a ceiling of weak cat 1 (65-70kt). The fact that it will get tangled up with a mid-upper trough should cap its intensity, however these BE (baroclincally enhanced) systems can surprise you sometimes (e.g. 9 OCT 2011).

[SouthernBreeze]

What is the terrain like in Cuba for the forecasted NHC track?

not much for mountains there

[SFLcane]

Winds up to 60 mph now north of Cuba.

[AutoPenalti]

Winds up to 60 mph now north of Cuba.

*CNN breaking news soundtrack intensifies*

[SouthFLTropics]

Winds up to 60 mph now north of Cuba.

I suspect that we may see this intensity get slow walked up over time. Will depend on what Eta looks like when it re-emerges.


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[SconnieCane]

I'm a bit surprised NHC doesn't have a "lemon" area shaded on the TWO in the northwest Caribbean, given the uncertainty over whether the remnants of Eta will redevelop or if a wholly new TC will form.

[MetroMike]

I'm a bit surprised NHC doesn't have a "lemon" area shaded on the TWO in the northwest Caribbean, given the uncertainty over whether the remnants of Eta will redevelop or if a wholly new TC will form.

Its not a normal set of circumstances with Eta and things are literally "up in the air" I believe the NHC is doing things by standard operating procedures and making things less confusing to get out the word to the public.

[AdamFirst]

60 MPH winds are still disruptive. Tree damage and power outages, mostly. Flooding rains is my biggest concern with this potential storm. We have had a metric ton of rainfall lately along the east coast of Florida.

[lhpfish]

Lol that’s what we thought about Irene.

Nasty little last minute storm.

[Ryxn]

Down to a Tropical Storm per NHC.

...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

[N2FSU]

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[AdamFirst]

Would like to know - what part of Eta is expected to redevelop over the Caribbean? Is it part of the main circulation or are models assuming a piece breaks off and that develops?

[wxman57]

Winds up to 60 mph now north of Cuba.

I'd say that's a HUGE guess at this point. Look at a sat pic of the Caribbean now. Zeta is over Nicaragua and a secondary vorticity lobe is SW of Jamaica, producing very heavy squalls well NE of Eta. These two features continue to Fujiwhara around one another. You can clearly see this in the model forecasts, particularly if you look at 850mb vorticity. It's a quite complex interaction that is causing Eta to take an "S" track. We really don't know what will emerge into the Caribbean late Friday. Eta will likely lose its circulation tonight or tomorrow morning over the mountains of Honduras. There are many uncertainties in its future.

Whatever emerges into the Caribbean Friday will not be a tight circulation. It will be a broad, open area of low pressure. Such features often take quite a while to reorganize. It's possible that Eta barely manages to get organized before it reaches Cuba on Saturday. I don't think Cuba will affect it much, as it will be large and disorganized - no tight core to disrupt. It could have a small area of 50kt/60 mph winds near south Florida. Recon seems to be able to find tiny areas of stronger winds in any storm. Certainly wouldn't rule that out, but it's a very low confidence forecast. Recent runs of the GFS just dissipate Eta in the eastern Gulf early next week as the two vorticity lobes rotate around one another. Wouldn't rule that out. EC seems a bit bold in predicting this mess will be able to organize into a hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro has been a hot mess all season so I wouldn't be placing any bets on it. My best guess is a sheared/broad/lopsided weak Sub-tropical Storm at the moment.

[Loveweather12]

:uarrow: The Euro has been a hot mess all season so I wouldn't be placing any bets on it. My best guess is a sheared/broad/lopsided weak Sub-tropical Storm at the moment.

No one was trashing euro when it had it going on EPAC. To early to know what to come of this system

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: The Euro has been a hot mess all season so I wouldn't be placing any bets on it. My best guess is a sheared/broad/lopsided weak Sub-tropical Storm at the moment.

No one was trashing euro when it had it going on EPAC. To early to know what to come of this system

The Euro has been MIA all season, then showing up to the party at the last second.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: The Euro has been a hot mess all season so I wouldn't be placing any bets on it. My best guess is a sheared/broad/lopsided weak Sub-tropical Storm at the moment.

No one was trashing euro when it had it going on EPAC. To early to know what to come of this system

The Euro has been MIA all season, then showing up to the party at the last second.

This is largely true.

[LarryWx]

Speaking of MIA, any word on how well inland areas of Honduras are doing? Satellite pics suggest very heavy convection is now over north central to NW Honduras. Does anyone have a link to radars in that area?

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1324003331686150144

[AutoPenalti]

Speaking of MIA, any word on how well inland areas of Honduras are doing? Satellite pics suggest very heavy convection is now over north central to NW Honduras. Does anyone have a link to radars in that area?

There's still noticeable spin at the mid-levels.