ATL: ETA - Models

[Weatherboy1]

Decent consensus building that "something" is coming for the FL peninsula in 5-6 days. Will be interesting to see if the Euro concurs later today. So much depends on what's left of Eta after it emerges (assuming it does) from CA. Doubt it will regain significant hurricane status unless it spends a solid amount of time over the NW Caribbean. But high-end TS or minimal hurricane certainly seems possible.

[SFLcane]

Looks almost subtropical on the GFS IR simulation and sheared. Most of the convection in the Bahamas with barely anything over Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/nz1j0SmJ/gfs-ir-watl-fh73-115.gif

How do you get the satellite presentation on the GFS model?

Go into upper dynamics tab and select " Simulated IR Satellite “

[TheStormExpert]

Decent consensus building that "something" is coming for the FL peninsula in 5-6 days. Will be interesting to see if the Euro concurs later today. So much depends on what's left of Eta after it emerges (assuming it does) from CA. Doubt it will regain significant hurricane status unless it spends a solid amount of time over the NW Caribbean. But high-end TS or minimal hurricane certainly seems possible.

Might be more Subtropical in nature according to the latest GFS and CMC. Yesterday’s Euro runs were definitely outliers.

[toad strangler]

I never like the prospects of a post landfall torn up cyclone regaining meaty stature. More inclined to buy stock in the sheared Tropical Stormish system the GFS and CMC are showing.

[TheProfessor]

One thing to watch that could have major implications on the future track of Eta and it's remnants as well as potential strength. That thing is the westward progression of Eta. If Eta continues to crawl and doesn't make it very far west before it gets pulled to the north, it could miss the mountains to the east. This would allow for Eta to move offshore with a much stronger core and allow it to maintain tropical characteristics in the NW Caribbean. If that's the case Eta would be much more primed for steady intensification if not rapid intensification as it moves to the ENE or NE. A strong Eta would then be able to better battle shear before it potentially gets trapped under a ridge, which could once again provide a better environment. The short term changes of Eta will have a significant effect on mid and long range models.

[SoupBone]

Doesn't take much effort to look it up. Long time ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_T ... _(pre-1900)

Haha so 1527 and 1590. Wow.

I guess you'd say they're overdue

I'm just amazed to see that. So in recorded weather history, Texas has only been hit twice in the month of November, 1527 and 1590.

Sorry for the hijack in the models thread, but wow, that is just insane.

[AutoPenalti]

One thing to watch that could have major implications on the future track of Eta and it's remnants as well as potential strength. That thing is the westward progression of Eta. If Eta continues to crawl and doesn't make it very far west before it gets pulled to the north, it could miss the mountains to the east. This would allow for Eta to move offshore with a much stronger core and allow it to maintain tropical characteristics in the NW Caribbean. If that's the case Eta would be much more primed for steady intensification if not rapid intensification as it moves to the ENE or NE. A strong Eta would then be able to better battle shear before it potentially gets trapped under a ridge, which could once again provide a better environment. The short term changes of Eta will have a significant effect on mid and long range models.

This was my initial thought before the whole recon thing happened in yesterday afternoon. It doesn't seem to have made landfall yet. Wasn't this forecast to make landfall like now?

[Spacecoast]

10:00 NHC disco: "It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several
days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week."

6z GEFS Ensembles still have only ~50% surviving to re-emerge into WCar...
17 members out 33 dissipate?


16 members out of 33 re-emerge. It must be said that these include the operational, the control member, & ensemble mean member.


I'm still puzzled by this. It seems like re-emergence is a foregone conclusion, and I would agree with that.
But it seems the ensembles are still not convinced.

[AutoPenalti]

10:00 NHC disco: "It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several
days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week."

6z GEFS Ensembles still have only ~50% surviving to re-emerge into WCar...
17 members out 33 dissipate?
https://i.ibb.co/cLFm7dC/Capture113a.jpg

16 members out of 33 re-emerge. It must be said that these include the operational, the control member, & ensemble mean member.
https://i.ibb.co/F8nv6rS/Capture113b.jpg

I'm still puzzled by this. It seems like re-emergence is a foregone conclusion, and I would agree with that.
But it seems the ensembles are still not convinced.

Keep in mind that the LLC may dissapate, the MLC may not.

[Spacecoast]

10:00 NHC disco: "It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several
days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week."

6z GEFS Ensembles still have only ~50% surviving to re-emerge into WCar...
17 members out 33 dissipate?
https://i.ibb.co/cLFm7dC/Capture113a.jpg

16 members out of 33 re-emerge. It must be said that these include the operational, the control member, & ensemble mean member.
https://i.ibb.co/F8nv6rS/Capture113b.jpg

I'm still puzzled by this. It seems like re-emergence is a foregone conclusion, and I would agree with that.
But it seems the ensembles are still not convinced.

Keep in mind that the LLC may dissapate, the MLC may not.

Thanks. That makes sense.

[Jr0d]

Might be more Subtropical in nature according to the latest GFS and CMC. Yesterday’s Euro runs were definitely outliers.

That is what I've been seeing too, or at least a very lopsided system.

So much depends on Etacs track across Central America. If it does not go inland as far as the NHC projects, the circulation may avoid the mountains and stay intact, setting up significant strengthening when back over water. A disrupted circulation, as currently forecast will take much more time to strengthen, even in highly favorable conditions.

I am very interested to see how the models respond to it's position and direction(or lack there of) now, almost all of them had Eta onshore already if i recall correctly.

[SFLcane]

06z COAMPS model forecasting pretty rapid intensification in the nw Caribbean Sea.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF sharper E turn and stronger into the NW Caribbean.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF has a 986mb TC into SE Florida by Sunday. Huge deviation from last run. Euro is still running.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF has a 65mph Tropical Storm into Dade County by Sunday morning.

EDIT: Strengthens into a cane as it rides up the coast.

[AutoPenalti]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro still considerably slower than the GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm not real keen on the direction the models are trending. GFS, ICON, NAVGEM, HWRF, (and possibly Euro) all showing the same idea. Storm NE towards the Florida Straights and then recurving back to the N and NW across Florida.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro crossing the Florida keys by 144 hours; moderate tropical storm.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro with landfall in SFL by Monday. 996mb low-res.