How intense will Eta get?

[zal0phus]

It already looks like Eta is shaping up to be a historic hurricane. How strong do you think it will get?
I'm a little hesitant to outright say Category 5 so I'm putting it at 155 mph/927 mb or somewhere in that range.

[aspen]

At the rate this is intensifying and taking into account the very high MPIs in the region, I’ll estimate 905 mbar/145 kt.

[Hurricaneman]

I say 915 160mph at Nicaragua landfall and 925 160mph in the Yucatán channel in 8 days

[ElectricStorm]

I originally was hesitant to go for Cat 5 but I'm not anymore, nothing in its way until land, 140kts/925 mb

[FireRat]

Wow, given how this beast has behaved all day today, ETA could achieve Cat 5 status. I'll go with 165 mph and a pressure of 918 mb later tonight into early morning tomorrow. I really hope this thing weakens before slamming the coast

[underthwx]

It already looks like Eta is shaping up to be a historic hurricane. How strong do you think it will get?
I'm a little hesitant to outright say Category 5 so I'm putting it at 155 mph/927 mb or somewhere in that range.

I feel ETA will be 150...low shear, warm water, unfortunately should enable ETA to continue to strengthen...

[ElectricStorm]

It already looks like Eta is shaping up to be a historic hurricane. How strong do you think it will get?
I'm a little hesitant to outright say Category 5 so I'm putting it at 155 mph/927 mb or somewhere in that range.

I feel ETA will be 150...low shear, warm water, unfortunately should enable ETA to continue to strengthen...

Kts or mph?

[underthwx]

It already looks like Eta is shaping up to be a historic hurricane. How strong do you think it will get?
I'm a little hesitant to outright say Category 5 so I'm putting it at 155 mph/927 mb or somewhere in that range.

I feel ETA will be 150...low shear, warm water, unfortunately should enable ETA to continue to strengthen...

Kts or mph?

Sorry....150 mph

[aspen]

If the recon planes keep breaking down before getting south of 25N, we might never know how strong Eta peaks at.

[aspen]

The development of a full CDG ring makes me think 155 kt and 890-900 mbar is not impossible...we shall see, assuming recon successfully makes the journey.

[Ryxn]

I'm having Delta deja-vu but this time, it's much less of a fail. I feel Eta was much stronger than 150 mph especially since the drop missed the eye.

[aspen]

Since Eta has likely peaked and didn’t have recon coverage for several hours, I’m going to predict what its peak probably was.

The final pass was at 03:12z, and the EWRC wouldn’t really take hold for another three hours. If Eta kept up the 4 mb/hr deepening rate determined by the two passes last night, it would’ve bottomed out around 914-918 mbar, and might’ve had winds of 140-145 kt; there was a 155 kt drop in the SE quadrant, 135 kt SFMR in one of the weaker quadrants, and the strongest NW winds remained unsampled.

[Extratropical94]

Since Eta has likely peaked and didn’t have recon coverage for several hours, I’m going to predict what its peak probably was.

The final pass was at 03:12z, and the EWRC wouldn’t really take hold for another three hours. If Eta kept up the 4 mb/hr deepening rate determined by the two passes last night, it would’ve bottomed out around 914-918 mbar, and might’ve had winds of 140-145 kt; there was a 155 kt drop in the SE quadrant, 135 kt SFMR in one of the weaker quadrants, and the strongest NW winds remained unsampled.

I agree. I don't like the statement "Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations" from the discussion, because recon was clearly showing a deepening trend, and with winds probably still catching up at that time, a pressure in the 910s and borderline Cat 5 winds likely occured around 06Z.
IMO, continuity would have certainly supported something like 918/135 or 918/140 for the intermediate advisory.

[Kazmit]

I just realized that this operationally peaked at only 5 kts more than Delta... lol

[kevin]

I'm very curious, how strong do you guys think Eta was at its peak? Considering there was no recon in there we will of course never know, but I'm interested to hear opinions from the experts. Could Eta possibly have been in the 900s or even sub900 mbar range for a little while? I don't think I've ever seen such a perfect pink IR ring around an Atlantic storm since I started tracking hurricanes. Just to clarify, this is not meant as a dig or critisism of the NHC in any way, they did the best they could to get accurate data and will of course analyze it with a lot of expertise in the post-season as well. It's just that as someone who's obsessed with statistics, I'm very curious to know how strong you guys think Eta was during its pinhole phase.

[Ubuntwo]

I'm very curious, how strong do you guys think Eta was at its peak? Considering there was no recon in there we will of course never know, but I'm interested to hear opinions from the experts. Could Eta possibly have been in the 900s or even sub900 mbar range for a little while? I don't think I've ever seen such a perfect pink IR ring around an Atlantic storm since I started tracking hurricanes. Just to clarify, this is not meant as a dig or critisism of the NHC in any way, they did the best they could to get accurate data and will of course analyze it with a lot of expertise in the post-season as well. It's just that as someone who's obsessed with statistics, I'm very curious to know how strong you guys think Eta was during its pinhole phase.

Extrapolating from the recon flight, I'd guess 145kt/915mb was peak. Sat appearance steadily improved for some time beyond the flight, and the west side with likely strongest winds was hardly sampled. There was a 135kt SFMR which the NHC negated with comparatively marginal FL winds. However, most hurricane models and dropsondes showed excellent mixing ('bottom heavy' vertical wind profile) as would be expected with a low latitude, convectively very deep system.

[aspen]

I'm very curious, how strong do you guys think Eta was at its peak? Considering there was no recon in there we will of course never know, but I'm interested to hear opinions from the experts. Could Eta possibly have been in the 900s or even sub900 mbar range for a little while? I don't think I've ever seen such a perfect pink IR ring around an Atlantic storm since I started tracking hurricanes. Just to clarify, this is not meant as a dig or critisism of the NHC in any way, they did the best they could to get accurate data and will of course analyze it with a lot of expertise in the post-season as well. It's just that as someone who's obsessed with statistics, I'm very curious to know how strong you guys think Eta was during its pinhole phase.

Extrapolating from the recon flight, I'd guess 145kt/915mb was peak. Sat appearance steadily improved for some time beyond the flight, and the west side with likely strongest winds was hardly sampled. There was a 135kt SFMR which the NHC negated with comparatively marginal FL winds. However, most hurricane models and dropsondes showed excellent mixing ('bottom heavy' vertical wind profile) as would be expected with a low latitude, convectively very deep system.

I’d say it got even deeper, perhaps down to 906-910 mbar. The last recon plane found a deepening rate of 5.4 mb/hr (927.4 to 922.4 mbar extrapolated in 56 minutes), and the EWRC really didn’t start to degrade the pinhole for another 3-ish hours. If that deepening rate continued for the full 3 hours, Eta bottomed out at 906 mbar. However, if it started to slow down after ~1.5 hrs, then it was likely 910 mbar.

As of winds, I’d go for 140 kt, maybe 145 kt. Yeah the NW quadrant was likely the strongest, but in such a well-organized pinhole system, there shouldn’t be too much of a difference between the strongest and weakest quadrants. The SE had FL winds of 130-135 kt, SFMR of 135 kt, and a dropsonde gust of 155 kt. I’d argue surface winds there were 135 kt and not 130 kt, so if the NW quad was a little stronger, then 140 kt is a safe bet. Maybe it could’ve gotten up to 150 kt, but we’ll never know.

[Shell Mound]

I'm very curious, how strong do you guys think Eta was at its peak? Considering there was no recon in there we will of course never know, but I'm interested to hear opinions from the experts. Could Eta possibly have been in the 900s or even sub900 mbar range for a little while? I don't think I've ever seen such a perfect pink IR ring around an Atlantic storm since I started tracking hurricanes. Just to clarify, this is not meant as a dig or critisism of the NHC in any way, they did the best they could to get accurate data and will of course analyze it with a lot of expertise in the post-season as well. It's just that as someone who's obsessed with statistics, I'm very curious to know how strong you guys think Eta was during its pinhole phase.

Extrapolating from the recon flight, I'd guess 145kt/915mb was peak. Sat appearance steadily improved for some time beyond the flight, and the west side with likely strongest winds was hardly sampled. There was a 135kt SFMR which the NHC negated with comparatively marginal FL winds. However, most hurricane models and dropsondes showed excellent mixing ('bottom heavy' vertical wind profile) as would be expected with a low latitude, convectively very deep system.

It’s a little odd how this reasoning was applied to Eta but not to (the upgrade of) Nana, in which SFMR was clearly inflating winds via shoaling, despite lower FL winds and in-situ data contradicting hurricane status. The NHC’s reasoning in this case and Eta’s is a bit similar to that which it applied to Jose ‘17, in which reconnaissance came in as satellite showed a deterioration in presentation, yet aircraft solidly supported, at least in my view, Cat-5 intensity, given that SFMR data are more reliable over deep ocean waters vs. nearshore, yet the NHC refused to upgrade to Cat-5 posthumously. The NHC needs to be a little more scientific and consistent in how it applies its standards; otherwise, our present-day records end up being only a marginal improvement over those of the pre-satellite era. Had standards been applied with equanimity, both Jose and Eta, at the very least, would have been upgraded to ~140 knots and Nana downgraded to 55-60 knots, at least in my view.