ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Some of you should read more Carl Sagan. Specifically, his quote regarding "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." This quote was said regarding evidence for UFOs but applies well to the scientific method in action.

NHC sets the bar high for Category 5 for a good reason: it's rare for a storm to get that intense in the Atlantic, thus it'll require an strong amount of evidence to justify an upgrade. Last VDM had a SFMR reading of 135 knots that was valid. Good chance the next VDM has a SFMR reading >140 knots.

[ElectricStorm]

One reason why I think NHC could still upgrade without recon is because they are officially calling for a Cat 5 landfall in their forecast. So if Eta's appearance remains the same or even gets a little better, I think they will upgrade since they are expecting a Cat 5 landfall

[underthwx]

NHC now showing ETA as a Tropical Storm, after it reemerges in the NW Carribean!.....

[EquusStorm]

What next VDM? Pretty sure that was the last we're going to get since the one plane out of four that actually made the trip gave up after two passes. They could go 140kt assuming it's still as rapidly deepening as it was when we had a plane in there but I can't imagine they'll go for that. Would be nice to be surprised but I'm just gonna go to bed instead of waiting so I can sleep instead of be frustrated the rest of the night lol

That said Nicaragua is in for a world of hurt either way. Very scary situation.

[ElectricStorm]

Adjusted Ts on ADT are up to 6.9, I assume they will be at 7.0 soon. Then NHC will have more than just the crazy raws

[CrazyC83]

AF304 probably only had enough fuel for two passes anyway. It's a loooong way from there to Biloxi.

[CyclonicFury]

It's a shame we were never able to get data from the NW quadrant which may be the strongest.

[EquusStorm]

It's honestly hard to fathom that there's a controversy over the category five status of Atlantic storm #28, Hurricane Eta, in November; 2020 has normalized far too much

[Iceresistance]

It's a shame we were never able to get data from the NW quadrant which may be the strongest.

The SE quadrant was very strong.

[FireRat]

but yeah, today is onw of those days that teach us all to not take Recon for granted. However unfortunate things turned out today with certain aspects of the mission, I'm grateful for the brave souls who actually went out to this monster, risking themselves to bring us valuable info. At the very least we know this is a high end Cat 4.

Eta will definitely join the thread of the intense storms discussions and potential Cat 5's if indeed we don't see an upgrade soon.

Best of luck to all down in Central America!

[CrazyC83]

It's a shame we were never able to get data from the NW quadrant which may be the strongest.

The SE quadrant was very strong.

Even a perfectly working plane would be hard-pressed to get more than two passes into a storm there (unless they really short cut one) due to the distance to Biloxi.

[ElectricStorm]

It's a shame we were never able to get data from the NW quadrant which may be the strongest.

The SE quadrant was very strong.

Usually front-right quad is the strongest, in this case that would be the NW... which never got a pass. Unfortunate

[Iceresistance]

Latest frames suggesting a west movement from Eta.

[Kazmit]

I don't see any feasible way this peaks less than a cat 5. I'll be a bit frustrated if it's not upgraded operationally, but it certainly will be upgraded at some point.

[ElectricStorm]

I don't see any feasible way this peaks less than a cat 5. I'll be a bit frustrated if it's not upgraded operationally, but it certainly will be upgraded at some point.

I think they'll upgrade. But I'm with you it will be frustrating if they don't.

[bahamaswx]

seems to me they just got there too early and pressure was still dropping in response to the recent drastic structural improvements.

[ElectricStorm]

Adjusted Ts up to 7.1. Final Ts up to 6.6, the highest they've been so far due to constraints. I imagine they'll get to 7.0 as well.

[Owasso]

Adjusted ADT up to 7.1 now, Final T jumps to 6.6

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2020 Time : 042017 UTC
Lat : 14:05:24 N Lon : 82:42:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 933.5mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 7.1 8.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : +9.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

[Sanibel]

WPAC has ZERO recon & they get 190 mph storms! Why does the Atlantic keep having even more problems with Recon & the intensity is lower than what could really happen?

Pacific Juice...

[sponger]

What a season! Poor Nicaragua! This may very well get upgraded to a five postseason if the NHC will not have enough data to upgrade. That pinhole eye is terrifying and really just a large tornado of destruction.