ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Owasso]

Forecast to re-emerge and intensify to a Tropical Storm now.

[pcolaman]

!4 to 21 ft above tide levels !! That is bad!! I read the discussion and was very scared for those poor people. What a worst case scenario for that coast line ..

[HurricaneRyan]

Oh damn. First Category 4 in November since 2008.

Anything could happen, happened.

[Highteeld]

well...

[supercane4867]

NHC comments that an EWRC is probably starting in their Discussion from the new Advisory.

NHC likes to mention ERC for precautionary reasons, but radar doesn't indicate a clear cut case yet.

[Highteeld]

WMG in the eye now

[StAuggy]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVr3LCmc/image.png

Forecast to re-emerge and intensify to a Tropical Storm now.

Let’s hope it doesn’t stay on that trajectory of the last two depression plot points. I don’t want to think about it if this manages to skirt the coast and split the channel on its way to the gulf should it head more north instead of east

[RL3AO]

If you step back, it shouldn't be as surprising that recon "only" found 927 mb. In November, the tropopause is colder than during the peak of the season. That's likely helping us get the unusual -80C CDO.

[skyline385]

925mb 135 kts on NE pass

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR 135 knots. Pressure down ~2mb extrapolated.

[ElectricStorm]

SFMR 135 knots. Pressure down ~2mb extrapolated.

And that's in the SE quad. Wouldn't that be the weakest in a SW moving storm?

[Highteeld]

Well, wonder if the NW eyewall will produce anything.

[NDG]

135 knots in the SE eyewall.

135 knots
(~ 155.4 mph)

[cheezyWXguy]

SFMR 135 knots. Pressure down ~2mb extrapolated.

That’s not even the center yet. Given the 6mb drop between that ob and its previous, pressure may be another couple mb lower

[LarryWx]

If you step back, it shouldn't be as surprising that recon "only" found 927 mb. In November, the tropopause is colder than during the peak of the season. That's likely helping us get the unusual -80C CDO.

Great point. Also, what about Eta being a compact and relatively small storm? H force are out only 25 miles from the center. Do you or does anyone else know how this size compares to Wilma and Patricia?

[Hammy]

Of course the end of the data set would be right before the eyewall

[FLpanhandle91]

Well that should be enough for the upgrade to cat 5.

[NDG]

Well, wonder if the NW eyewall will produce anything.

I wouldn't doubt if that's where they find the strongest winds since it has been on a SW heading.

[ElectricStorm]

As others have mentioned, just because Eta wasn't sub 900 mb at the first pass doesn't mean it can't get that low... It's still going strong. Upgrade to Cat 5 coming very soon

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVr3LCmc/image.png

Forecast to re-emerge and intensify to a Tropical Storm now.

Let’s hope it doesn’t stay on that trajectory of the last two depression plot points. I don’t want to think about it if this manages to skirt the coast and split the channel on its way to the gulf should it head more north instead of east

Hopefully it doesn’t survive. It’s unfortunate and devastating what’s about to happen to folks in CA over the next couple of days. Hopefully the mountains tear it apart and it fizzles out fast.