ATL: ETA - Models

[chris_fit]

Euro 10-fold stronger than 0z.

Um No?

977mb @ 192 hours on the 12Z
949mb same time frame on the 00Z

Umm, yes?

https://i.imgur.com/6QgVqqY.gif

That's from the 12Z Yesterday - I thought we were comparing it to the last most recent (00Z) run - your graphic is comparing it to an older run.

[SFLcane]

Are we really comparing a few mlb’s lol?

It’s a major hurricane folks

[SFLcane]

Oh my 933mb!!

[chris_fit]

Are we really comparing a few mlb’s lol?

It’s a major hurricane folks

No - I was just confused/wanted to make sure I wasn't missing/seeing things.

Very similar solutions on the 00Z and 12Z for the Euro - Scary!

[aspen]

If the Euro is right about Eta getting stuck in the WCar and recovering, we might be watching it bomb out AGAIN next week.

[SFLcane]

You know I am getting this vibe we are going to have a powerful hurricane trapped here after CA with no escape route NE.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Are we really comparing a few mlb’s lol?

It’s a major hurricane folks

it literally went from 930 to 933mb. not much of a difference lol.

[supercane4867]

High resolution grid is likely to be stronger than 933mb. Certainly a CAT5

[SFLcane]

[TheStormExpert]

Second run in a row that the Euro has a 930-933mb major hurricane sitting in the NW Caribbean with nowhere to go. 12z is just a touch east of 00z but they’re pretty identical.

So basically it’s the GFS vs. Euro now. GFS shows Eta interacting with a PV streamer beyond 5 days while the Euro bombs this sucker out.

[Laminar]

I wish we could ditch the smilies from this site.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m getting Hurricane Rina 2011 vibes in terms of track with Eta but in the opposite direction.

[chris_fit]

12 GFS Ens

From the looks of it, you blur your eyes, EURO and GFS are not very far off @ 10 Days

[gatorcane]

Euro seems to be on its own with that intensity it is showing so as far as I am concerned, it is a outlier for now. Other globals show interaction with the PV streamer and a messy and complex situation.

[SouthFLTropics]

Two back to back runs with the Euro in the 930's in this basin is nothing to sneeze at. Especially since it has been trigger shy all year long. But it is beyond the 5 day range. We've got to see what's left after CA.

[SFLcane]

Euro is still king on ridge/troughs.

[TheStormExpert]

12 GFS Ens

From the looks of it, you blur your eyes, EURO and GFS are not very far off @ 10 Days

https://i.imgur.com/YjdJmoi.gif

They’re very far off in intensity though.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro seems to be on its own with that intensity it is showing so as far as I am concerned, it is a outlier for now. Other globals show interaction with the PV streamer and a messy and complex situation.

I agree gatorcane. But if the overnight 00z run comes in the same then that’s worth considering.

The Euro has been far from what it was 12 years ago this season so take these runs with an extra grain of salt.

[SFLcane]

I will just leave this here!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1323342637940805635

[TheStormExpert]

Two back to back runs with the Euro in the 930's in this basin is nothing to sneeze at. Especially since it has been trigger shy all year long. But it is beyond the 5 day range. We've got to see what's left after CA.

The trigger shy part is what has me skeptical of these past two runs. Future runs and trends will be more telling.