ATL: ETA - Models

[otowntiger]

Majority of 12Z GFS Ens members shoot this into the W FL Coast, pretty much entire coast has impact according to these solutions.

The Deterministic GFS run is a W outlier


https://i.imgur.com/XColqYH.png

it seems the top 2 arrows in the graphic would be potentially weak systems right? The gulf conditions are / will be pretty hostile outside extreme south/southeast side, no?

[TheStormExpert]

I stated previously on another topic here on S2K that, IN MY OPINION to get a significant storm to hit CONUS in November, you would need it to be at a certain sweet spot in the NW Caribbean. That sweet spot would be anywhere from Cancun/Cozumel to the Isle of Pines in Cuba, with the Yucatan Channel being the optimal place to hang out and wait for a trough to send something for a CONUS strike. Eventual impact area would depend on the orientation of the trough. Bottom line, when and IF Eta emerges, where it decides to spend its time in the Caribbean and redevelop will be key to any CONUS impacts. If it sets up east of the Isle of Pines, my gut tells me it would get taken out to sea. Right now, the models appear to be setting it up in the NW Caribbean, possibly in that "Sweet spot". A storm impact further north on CONUS would weaken on approach due to shear and dry air. South Florida would be at most risk to experience a higher end storm.

Wilma was in that certain “sweet spot” too. Though Irene 1999 was always a possible analog track in my opinion, but Eta will be too far west for a repeat of that.

[supercane4867]

Landfall position is pretty far south on 12z euro, which means more time over water for strengthening in the short term

[TheStormExpert]

Majority of 12Z GFS Ens members shoot this into the W FL Coast, pretty much entire coast has impact according to these solutions.

The Deterministic GFS run is a W outlier


https://i.imgur.com/XColqYH.png

it seems the top 2 arrows in the graphic would be potentially weak systems right? The gulf conditions are / will be pretty hostile outside extreme south/southeast side, no?

12z GFS has Eta interacting with a PV Streamer once it emerges in the NW Caribbean hence the weaker broader solution.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro is faster and SE of Cozumel at 120hrs. with a 1001mb low.

[Blinhart]

So according to these models, this system could be around for 2 to 3 weeks???

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF end of the run nearing hurricane intensity

[SouthFLTropics]

I hate to say it but the 12z Euro looks like it is going for a possible repeat of 00z.

[supercane4867]

12z euro from 120hr to 168hr heading ESE...

[TheStormExpert]

So according to these models, this system could be around for 2 to 3 weeks???

Second long-tracker of the season!?

[SouthFLTropics]

12z euro from 120hr to 168hr heading ESE...

It had that motion on the 00z as well. It should turn back to the WNW or NW and strengthen if it is follows last nights 00z trend.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 10-fold stronger than 0z.

[supercane4867]

12z euro gonna go nuclear.

[SFLcane]

12z Euro much stronger!

[chris_fit]

Euro 10-fold stronger than 0z.

Um No?

977mb @ 192 hours on the 12Z
949mb same time frame on the 00Z

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't at all be surprised if this system we're tracking ends up being Theta, not Eta. I have difficulty imagining Eta is going to survive its trek across central America with its MLC intact.

[tomatkins]

I stated previously on another topic here on S2K that, IN MY OPINION to get a significant storm to hit CONUS in November, you would need it to be at a certain sweet spot in the NW Caribbean. That sweet spot would be anywhere from Cancun/Cozumel to the Isle of Pines in Cuba, with the Yucatan Channel being the optimal place to hang out and wait for a trough to send something for a CONUS strike. Eventual impact area would depend on the orientation of the trough. Bottom line, when and IF Eta emerges, where it decides to spend its time in the Caribbean and redevelop will be key to any CONUS impacts. If it sets up east of the Isle of Pines, my gut tells me it would get taken out to sea. Right now, the models appear to be setting it up in the NW Caribbean, possibly in that "Sweet spot". A storm impact further north on CONUS would weaken on approach due to shear and dry air. South Florida would be at most risk to experience a higher end storm.

Its just way too early to figure out where it will set up though. So much depends on things like how strong it is now, how much time is spends over land, minor interactions with smaller features once it does reemerge, etc.

[chris_fit]

Where are you guys seeing the 12Z is stronger?

Here's the 00Z


Here's he 12Z

[SFLcane]

Where are you guys seeing the 12Z is stronger?

Here's the 00Z
https://i.imgur.com/mcW34Wu.jpg

Here's he 12Z
https://i.imgur.com/RhsAsEi.jpg

It’s a major hurricane heading north regardless.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 10-fold stronger than 0z.

Um No?

977mb @ 192 hours on the 12Z
949mb same time frame on the 00Z

Umm, yes?
EDIT: Okay, I noticed this is 12z from yesterday. Whoops.