ATL: ETA - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Para into Nicaragua/Honduras and only 120 hours from now

https://i.postimg.cc/GmNz2jVz/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-120.gif

This movement is due to the giant cold front coming down over the continental US.

[CourierPR]

Wxman57 sounded the all clear for the U.S. We can move on from the this will hit Florida chatter!

Right, none of you "experts" could possibly end up being wrong.

[Loveweather12]

Wxman57 sounded the all clear for the U.S. We can move on from the this will hit Florida chatter!

You work for NHC? You have a direct line to Mother Nature?
Until this storm moves the latitude, I’m not taking anything off the table.

[AutoPenalti]

Wxman57 sounded the all clear for the U.S. We can move on from the this will hit Florida chatter!

You work for NHC? You have a direct line to Mother Nature?
Until this storm moves the latitude, I’m not taking anything off the table.

You have a certified pro-met. It's enough.

He has his reasoning, if people want to take a pro-met's forecast than they have the right to do so.

[SoupBone]

Wxman57 sounded the all clear for the U.S. We can move on from the this will hit Florida chatter!

You work for NHC? You have a direct line to Mother Nature?
Until this storm moves the latitude, I’m not taking anything off the table.

You keep parroting the same exact line over and over. We get it, we're not kids.

[Nuno]

I don't foresee the modeling equivalent of Lucy moving the football out of Charlie Brown's way.

It's just a matter of figuring out where it'll all go once it consolidates further. Still lot of solutions on the table given what the operationals and ensembles show.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1322155178825580545

[mcheer23]

Wxman57 sounded the all clear for the U.S. We can move on from the this will hit Florida chatter!

You work for NHC? You have a direct line to Mother Nature?
Until this storm moves the latitude, I’m not taking anything off the table.

You have a certified pro-met. It's enough.

He has his reasoning, if people want to take a pro-met's forecast than they have the right to do so.

Glad they didn't with open wave Delta.

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF ... into CA, with a few concerning outliers

[tomatkins]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1322155178825580545/photo/1

I think also, a stronger system might be more likely to survive some contact with land, which could impact the forecast down the road when that trough moves in and pulls the remnants north.

[SoupBone]

0z ECMF ... into CA, with a few concerning outliers
https://i.ibb.co/sFpBDDG/Capture10030a.jpg

So the Euro sends it into the Pacific, am I seeing that right?

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF ... into CA, with a few concerning outliers
https://i.ibb.co/sFpBDDG/Capture10030a.jpg

So the Euro sends it into the Pacific, am I seeing that right?

There is another unrelated EPAC system (ep58, & ep56) that is also shown. The ens mean stays inland for the most part for al96

[Blown Away]

It seems regardless of strength 96L will bury into CA.

[tomatkins]

It seems regardless of strength 96L will bury into CA.

ICON is mostly in now - stays offshore until the very end where it moves NW into NE Nicaragua. Ends the run moving offshore into the Gulf of Honduras. Another model run showing the general WNW->SE->NW track over time.

[AutoPenalti]

You work for NHC? You have a direct line to Mother Nature?
Until this storm moves the latitude, I’m not taking anything off the table.

You have a certified pro-met. It's enough.

He has his reasoning, if people want to take a pro-met's forecast than they have the right to do so.

Glad they didn't with open wave Delta.

Well, it's a good thing people can make their own decisions right?

[SFLcane]

[kevin]

12z GFS now stalls for 18 hours just before the Honduras/Nicaragua coast. Will be interesting to see if it turns north or just delays its CA landfall.

Edit: landfalls in Nicaragua at 126 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS trend.

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS tightly clustered until about Hour 90 when they start to split.

[cp79]

Looking better for the U.S. Not good news for CA, though. They're going to get the brunt of it.