ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Since the NHC is doing hourly updates, they could pull the trigger and upgrade Zeta to a Cat 3 at 6pm.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I would not rely too much on SFMR readings over shallow waters. A blend of dropsonde, FL winds, and possibly radar observation using the GBTDV method should get this to a CAT3 in post-season analysis of there will be an upgrade.

Michael was upgraded despite SFMR being over shallow waters.

If it's in the VDM, then we'll know.

[kevin]

Zeta's landfall and possible cat 3 upgrade is this season's ultimate 'will they, won't they'.

[supercane4867]

I would not rely too much on SFMR readings over shallow waters. A blend of dropsonde, FL winds, and possibly radar observation using the GBTDV method should get this to a CAT3 in post-season analysis of there will be an upgrade.

Michael was upgraded despite SFMR being over shallow waters.

If it's in the VDM, then we'll know.

Marshy waters off the Mississippi Delta can be more tricky though

[EquusStorm]

Given the major boost by trough interaction perhaps they weighed more heavily on the lower SFMR winds as opposed to the high FL winds assuming they weren't fully mixing down. I dunno. We saw a similar thing with the random 114kt in Isaias when interacting with the jet and that didn't mix down

[Cataegis96]

Given the major boost by trough interaction perhaps they weighed more heavily on the lower SFMR winds as opposed to the high FL winds assuming they weren't fully mixing down. I dunno. We saw a similar thing with the random 114kt in Isaias when interacting with the jet and that didn't mix down

Dropsondes suggest that the higher winds aloft were mixing down efficiently.

[ColdMiser123]

Given the major boost by trough interaction perhaps they weighed more heavily on the lower SFMR winds as opposed to the high FL winds assuming they weren't fully mixing down. I dunno. We saw a similar thing with the random 114kt in Isaias when interacting with the jet and that didn't mix down

There was no convection on the east side of Isaias where those FL winds were measured, we know from the dropsondes earlier that significant winds are mixing down from the mid-levels down to the surface.

[tailgater]

This cant be right...can it? Just off LA oil port?

[url]https://i.ibb.co/sq28xR3/IMG-20201028-160344.png [/url]

Very very doubtful even if it were in a trapped bay the elevation surrounding it would only be a few feet above sea level

[wx98]

Currently moving onshore between Galliano and Montegut. A trajectory from Timbalier Island (which it passed over earlier), sends Zeta toward Metairie and New Orleans. This is of course unless it decides to turn soon.

[EquusStorm]

Alright cool, definitely very close to a major then lol. Interested in seeing the TCR for this one

[otowntiger]

It looks to me like New Orleans is just about an hour or so away from getting the brunt or very close to the brunt of what Zeta has to offer. It does not look like it will pass east of the city to me. This will not be another 'bullet missed'. I know the storm will weaken some but with the rapid forward speed, there won't be much time for the winds to diminish. The positive with the forward speed is of course there won't be much rainfall flooding, and it won't be a long duration wind event but likely a damaging and intense one.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Anyone have an idea how bad Baton Rouge is going to get it? One of my best friends lives there and he’s not responding to my attempts to contact him.

[Blinhart]

It looks to me like New Orleans is just about an hour or so away from getting the brunt or very close to the brunt of what Zeta has to offer. It does not look like it will pass east of the city to me. This will not be another 'bullet missed'. I know the storm will weaken some but with the rapid forward speed, there won't be much time for the winds to diminish. The positive with the forward speed is of course there won't be much rainfall flooding, and it won't be a long duration wind event but likely a damaging and intense one.

I don't think you will see much weakening until it is at least 40 miles inland of Mississippi. So in about 4 or 5 more hours it will be about the same.

[FLpanhandle91]

Grand Isle is in the absolute worst stuff this storm has to offer right now. Multiple 140+mph bins on the velocity scan 7,000 feet above the ground there.

[wx98]

Anyone have an idea how bad Baton Rouge is going to get it? One of my best friends lives there and he’s not responding to my attempts to contact him.

Baton Rouge is actually on the very edge of the rain. Doesn’t look like they will see anything too significant from Zeta in the city.

[wx98]

They should be calling landfall in less than 10-15 minutes...

[LSU2001]

Well we are catching it now down here in Cut Off. Got some major limb damage and some pretty big oaks down, snapped not up rooted. I just got my neighbors tractor shed deposited in my front yard lol

[funster]

Surge at the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium

 https://twitter.com/DrCraigMc/status/1321567778382499840

[Shawee]

Gusty in the big easy, eye wall rapidly closing in... so far so good. Keep moving. Just thankful this one isn’t hitting our friends in the Lake Charles area!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks to me (via radar) that the eye is going to go right over New Orleans