ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

There have been a few storms this season that possibly deserve a slightly higher peak, but none of them deserve it as much as Zeta imo. 95 kts right now might be a good call, but I feel this was definitely a cat 3, 1 or 2 hours ago. But I guess we'll see what they say in post season analysis.

[wx98]

Why did they not upgrade this to CAT 3!? This storm met all requirements for CAT 3 strength.

No it didn’t. This would’ve been a marginal upgrade at best. Plus, winds and eye presentation have been slightly less impressive over the last hour.

[Cyclenall]

Why did they not upgrade this to CAT 3!? This storm met all requirements for CAT 3 strength.

NHC only had a few mins if that to change their output for the 4 pm cycle, that data came in too close? We'll see in 4-9 mins what happens.

[xironman]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 967.8 mb (28.58 inHg)

The NAM 3K is now my go to model.

[fwbbreeze]

This cant be right...can it? Just off LA oil port?

[BobHarlem]

Mark Sudduth has his remote cams all along the MS coast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etXTaX0 ... e=youtu.be He'll catch the eastern part, but looks like it's going right over New Orleans.

[supercane4867]

4PM advisory didn’t state landfall. There is still a slight chance for an upgrade in the official landfall statement.

[NotoSans]

Max flight-level winds were 119kt, corresponding to 107kt at surface.
Max SFMR winds were 88kt.
Max lowest 150m average dropsonde winds were 110kt, translating to 94kt surface winds.

A blend of these data gives 96kt, so NHC’s 95kt is reasonable but one can argue for 100kt. Still this is a marginal case for post-season upgrade at best (although more likely than Sally).

[NC George]

Everyone always thinks every storm should be upgraded post season.

I don't. In fact, I think we should go with the standard the rest of the world goes by - 10 minute sustained speeds, which would downgrade many storms.

[LSU2001]

Wow, I am hearing thunder and seeing some flashes of lightning. I figure I am either in or very close to the northern eye wall and hearing thunder for sure. I think Zeta is still strengthening because of the rhinder

[Steve]

^^ There kind of is no land down there, just some sandbars and stuff where there used to be towns and all then camps later. But it's blowing up now on IR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[cheezyWXguy]

There have been a few storms this season that possibly deserve a slightly higher peak, but none of them deserve it as much as Zeta imo. 95 kts right now might be a good call, but I feel this was definitely a cat 3, 1 or 2 hours ago. But I guess we'll see what they say in post season analysis.

I don’t think Zeta is as far ahead of Sally, at least by landfall intensity as it seems, and I think there’s a chance both get the upgrade. Gamma seems destined for the upgrade to C1 before it’s Yucatán landfall though

[EquusStorm]

Definitely a slightly better case than Sally imo and almost certainly was 100kt an hour ago, but I don't work at the NHC so I don't make that call. If they wanna underestimate slightly that's their call to do so.

[SconnieCane]

Firing -80C convection over land. It's still 2020, folks.

[CrazyC83]

95 kt seems reasonable to me. I'd use an 80% reduction from 10,000 feet since there is a trough interaction ongoing, which for 119 kt at FL translates to 95 kt (and for 122 kt on radar at that height translates to 97 kt). The SFMR is likely unreliable at best near shore.

[EquusStorm]

This will catch a lot of people who haven't been paying attention today very off guard with wind and surge

[ColdMiser123]

Flagged SFMR of 106 kt, that is consistent with the 115 kt FL wind recon found though.

[kevin]

Did the NHC's latest update mention landfall or is there gonna be another special message regarding landfall soon.

[Ken711]

Because of the speed of Zeta it's amazing how deep inland the hurricane force winds will spread.

[supercane4867]

I would not rely too much on SFMR readings over shallow waters. A blend of dropsonde, FL winds, and possibly radar observation using the GBTDV method should get this to a CAT3 in post-season analysis if there will be an upgrade.