ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/JUHSdin.gif

Looks to go east of NO and direct hit around Bay St Louis . Poor Gulfport and Biloxi are in for a strong Eastern Eye wall!!!

Looks like Josh Morgerman will get a direct hit on his "Hurricane House" in Bay St. Louis after all. He's back there after intercepting Zeta once already on the Yucatan (same as he did during Delta).

[Jr0d]

Can't say I completely understand the call from the NHC; since they went 85kt for 74kt SFMR and 102kt FL, I expected 95kt or 100kt for 87kt SFMR and 119kt FL. Maybe someone on the board has some insight?

It takes time for flight level winds to mix to the surface. If they have enough evidence they will bump the intensity.

As with Laura, there was no evidence to support it being a cat 5, yet many on here though it should have been classified as such....

[Hurricane Mike]

Afternoon video update:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IP0mAJSc0Zk

[ColdMiser123]

Lowest 150m average of 110kt yields surface winds of 94kt using the standard conversion factor of 0.85. Combined with the SFMR winds of 87kt and the flight-level winds of 112KT (if you would like to disregard the spike of 119kt), 95kt is the best estimate for current intensity.

This is accurate for a standard conversion for a given dropsonde.

What is key to me though from that dropsonde is strong winds are mixing all the way down to the surface, which likely means that the 0.9 conversion factor used to convert FL wind at 700 mb down to surface wind likely still should apply here.

[Steve]

Looks much more NE or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

That’s why I think the worst will miss New Orleans...Saved by the front...

Hopefully. However the HWRF (and HMON) has consistently put the energy at landfall and for a few hours after to the north. Rain is now moderate. Winds in the teens. Let’s Go!

[us89]

An extremely concerning dropsonde, winds aloft are clearly mixing down to the surface. These are instantaneous winds, but look at the 119 kt average wind found in the lowest 500 meters of the sounding.

https://i.imgur.com/tholQPN.png

Whoa.

Definitely confirms the validity of those 119 kt FL winds the plane measured earlier.

[NotoSans]

Extrapolated pressure down to 969.7mb.

[pcolaman]

Looks much more NE or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

That’s why I think the worst will miss New Orleans...Saved by the front...

Hopefully. However the HWRF (and HMON) has consistently put the energy at landfall and for a few hours after to the north. Rain is now moderate. Winds in the teens. Let’s Go!

Good luck and Gods Speed to you in the Eye of this storm..

[3090]

https://i.imgur.com/JUHSdin.gif

Looks to go east of NO and direct hit around Bay St Louis . Poor Gulfport and Biloxi are in for a strong Eastern Eye wall!!!

Looks like Josh Morgerman will get a direct hit on his "Hurricane House" in Bay St. Louis after all. He's back there after intercepting Zeta once already on the Yucatan (same as he did during Delta).

It is not going east of the city of New Orleans. It is going over the eastern end of the city. The city extends to the east quite a bit. There is more than the French Quarter and downtown. It will the cross over to the Bay St' Louis area, making its 3rd landfall.

[ColdMiser123]

Also interesting to note from the dropsonde is that it rotated from the stronger east eyewall to the slightly weaker northeast eyewall, based on the wind direction.

[SoupBone]

Looks much more NE or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

That’s why I think the worst will miss New Orleans...Saved by the front...

Hopefully. However the HWRF (and HMON) has consistently put the energy at landfall and for a few hours after to the north. Rain is now moderate. Winds in the teens. Let’s Go!

True Steve but we're kind of in nowcasting mode. And it definitely looks way more NE than it's supposed to be. Anyone have an NHC path overlay?

And stay safe man!

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the eyewall will be crossing the coast sometime within the next 2-3 hours, Zeta really picking forward speed. It could be more like inside of 2 hours of a landfall.

[3090]

That’s why I think the worst will miss New Orleans...Saved by the front...

Hopefully. However the HWRF (and HMON) has consistently put the energy at landfall and for a few hours after to the north. Rain is now moderate. Winds in the teens. Let’s Go!

Good luck and Gods Speed to you in the Eye of this storm..

You guys are contrarian to the mets. And also need a geography lesson on New Orleans.

[CrazyC83]

Due to the fast forward speed, the wind difference will be very large between the east and west side. The east side could see winds 40 mph stronger.

[Steve]

That’s why I think the worst will miss New Orleans...Saved by the front...

Hopefully. However the HWRF (and HMON) has consistently put the energy at landfall and for a few hours after to the north. Rain is now moderate. Winds in the teens. Let’s Go!

Good luck and Gods Speed to you in the Eye of this storm..

Appreciate that pcolaman. Mother-in-law was just over there the last couple days but bailed when she thought she was going to get hit by a hurricane only to come back to New Orleans. haha. You can't win them all. Best to you and everyone else in my other hometown over there in the 850.

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure has fallen to 969 MB

[ElectricStorm]

Purple flight level hurricane force barbs not too far away from the coast now

[northjaxpro]

Hopefully. However the HWRF (and HMON) has consistently put the energy at landfall and for a few hours after to the north. Rain is now moderate. Winds in the teens. Let’s Go!

Good luck and Gods Speed to you in the Eye of this storm..

You guys are contrarian to the mets. And also need a geography lesson on New Orleans.

The eyewalli is going to come extremely close to New Orleans on its current heading. It just may come directly over them. The Mississippi Coast really is going to get walloped beibg in the right front quadrant of the cyclone.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Telling us now that we will see gusts over 75 for sure in Mobile. Hmm . . .

[Steve]

That’s why I think the worst will miss New Orleans...Saved by the front...

Hopefully. However the HWRF (and HMON) has consistently put the energy at landfall and for a few hours after to the north. Rain is now moderate. Winds in the teens. Let’s Go!

True Steve but we're kind of in nowcasting mode. And it definitely looks way more NE than it's supposed to be. Anyone have an NHC path overlay?

And stay safe man!

I know. I'm hitting it in real time thinking the next 4-5 hours will be the action here. Those models did have it moving up this way. Most did but the question from 2 days ago that I brought up in the models thread that bled over to this one was the split between the hurricane models and globals vs. mesoscales and some of the ensembles. Those issues were would it pass over New Orleans (or a little to the South or possibly west) and what would the trajectory be for South Mississippi. Does it get back to the Gulf and landfall or does it just move up through St. Tammany into Hancock/Pearl River. 3 hours from landfall I still can't tell.