ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gfsperpendicular]

Can't say I completely understand the call from the NHC; since they went 85kt for 74kt SFMR and 102kt FL, I expected 95kt or 100kt for 87kt SFMR and 119kt FL. Maybe someone on the board has some insight?

[Steve]

Checking in with surface pressures (stations from west to east):

Houma - 29.64
Galliano - 29.66
Boothville - 29.69mb
Slidell - 29.74
Gulfport - 29.78
Biloxi - 29.82
Pascagoula - 29.81

[kevin]

Can't say I completely understand the call from the NHC; since they went 85kt for 74kt SFMR and 102kt FL, I expected 95kt or 100kt for 87kt SFMR and 119kt FL. Maybe someone on the board has some insight?

Same, maybe they want to check the SE again to check if their measurements are consistent or were anomalies, but even if they wouldn't call it a major yet I expected 95kt.

[supercane4867]

[hurricaneCW]

Last hour of the loop you can see Zeta picking up forward speed each frame update. I bet close to 25+ mph at landfall, the hurricane event will be quick which is good. Most of the destruction may be farther inland.

While the fast movement is good in theory this definitely will lead to more people getting affected by stronger winds than they would've gotten otherwise.

That east and southeast side is gonna be a doozy.

[CrazyC83]

Remember both HWRF and HMON have 850mb wind peaking above 136kt(!) right at landfall. With deep convection in place it's not hard for those insane FL winds to be translated to the surface at least in the form of gusts.

CAT 5!?

No, just at the 850mb level - well above the surface.

136 at 850 would equate to 109 kt at the surface.

[pcolaman]

https://i.imgur.com/JUHSdin.gif

Looks to go east of NO and direct hit around Bay St Louis . Poor Gulfport and Biloxi are in for a strong Eastern Eye wall!!!

[AlabamaDave]

So NOLA proper will miss that SE quadrant in all likelihood, but the Mississippi Gulf Coast is going to get smacked. Population is very low south and east of New Orleans in Louisiana.

[wx98]

https://i.imgur.com/JUHSdin.gif

Looks to go east of NO and direct hit around Bay St Louis . Poor Gulfport and Biloxi are in for a strong Eastern Eye wall!!!

I wouldn't say that it will miss NO with any confidence yet.

[xironman]

Zeta is starting to run over cooler water. We should see strengthening level off and steady state until landfall, but it's 2020 so .... Yet another storm to be reviewed post season most likely.

What about Baroclinic Forcing? Dorian became a CAT 2 in 2019 just before landfall over Nova Scotia.

I am really interested in how far inland the strong winds go. It will be somewhat close to equal in speed to the 1938 New England hurricane and likewise transitioning to extra tropical, though that hurricane was still over water.

[SoupBone]

Looks much more NE or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

[ColdMiser123]

An extremely concerning dropsonde, winds aloft are clearly mixing down to the surface. These are instantaneous winds, but look at the 119 kt average wind found in the lowest 500 meters of the sounding.

[SunnyThoughts]

An extremely concerning dropsonde, winds aloft are clearly mixing down to the surface. These are instantaneous winds, but look at the 119 kt average wind found in the lowest 500 meters of the sounding.

https://i.imgur.com/tholQPN.png

Do you think the NHC will bump it up to Cat 3 before landfall if that continues to happen?

[ColdMiser123]

An extremely concerning dropsonde, winds aloft are clearly mixing down to the surface. These are instantaneous winds, but look at the 119 kt average wind found in the lowest 500 meters of the sounding.

https://i.imgur.com/tholQPN.png

Do you think the NHC will bump it up to Cat 3 before landfall if that continues to happen?

The 90 kt current estimate is pretty conservative, I'm not sure NHC will upgrade this in real time.

[ElectricStorm]

On top of all the destruction from the core, the threat for tornadoes is now ongoing as well. Starting to see some warnings out there

[NotoSans]

Lowest 150m average of 110kt yields surface winds of 94kt using the standard conversion factor of 0.85. Combined with the SFMR winds of 87kt and the flight-level winds of 112KT (if you would like to disregard the spike of 119kt), 95kt is the best estimate for current intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

An extremely concerning dropsonde, winds aloft are clearly mixing down to the surface. These are instantaneous winds, but look at the 119 kt average wind found in the lowest 500 meters of the sounding.

https://i.imgur.com/tholQPN.png

Do you think the NHC will bump it up to Cat 3 before landfall if that continues to happen?

The 90 kt current estimate is pretty conservative, I'm not sure NHC will upgrade this in real time.

NHC is always very good, and I don't disagree with them all that often, but I do here. 90kts is too low I think, should be 95 to 100 imo

[GCANE]

18dBz Echo Top

[Sanibel]

Looks much more NE or are my eyes playing tricks on me?

That’s why I think the worst will miss New Orleans...Saved by the front...

[supercane4867]

IR trend suggests the dreaded sting jet feature maybe forming in the southern side of the system