ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Kate 1985 was later

Yeah but this is further west

What about Opal 1995?

I believe that was a little earlier and peaked before landfall. Weakened on approach

[Iceresistance]

I can't believe this is actually happening right now this late in the year. I really hope everyone down there is taking this thing seriously

Kate 1985 was later

Yeah but this is further west

What about Opal 1995?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1321526011826241536

[DestinHurricane]

Kate 1985 was later

Yeah but this is further west

What about Opal 1995?

Opal was well east of Zeta, FL panhandle. Also earlier in October.

[Beef Stew]

2:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28
Location: 28.3°N 90.9°W
Moving: NNE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[supercane4867]

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EYEWALL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN AN HOUR OR TWO...

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Zeta's maximum winds have increased to 105 mph (165
km), with higher gusts, and the central pressure has fallen to 973
mb. It now appears likely that Zeta will maintain category 2
intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale until its
initial landfall in southeast Louisiana later this afternoon.

Sustained tropical storm force winds are now spreading onshore the
southeastern coast of Louisiana. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) was recently reported at Caillou Bay, Louisiana.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EYEWALL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN AN HOUR OR TWO...

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Zeta's maximum winds have increased to 105 mph (165
km), with higher gusts, and the central pressure has fallen to 973
mb. It now appears likely that Zeta will maintain category 2
intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale until its
initial landfall in southeast Louisiana later this afternoon.

Sustained tropical storm force winds are now spreading onshore the
southeastern coast of Louisiana. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) was recently reported at Caillou Bay, Louisiana.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 90.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Syx6sic]

000
URNT12 KNHC 281851
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL282020
A. 28/18:32:00Z
B. 28.14 deg N 091.09 deg W
C. 700 mb 2879 m
D. 974 mb
E. 105 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C24
H. 71 kt
I. 356 deg 3 nm 18:31:00Z
J. 103 deg 78 kt
K. 019 deg 6 nm 18:30:00Z
L. 87 kt
M. 104 deg 24 nm 18:41:30Z
N. 199 deg 119 kt
O. 100 deg 30 nm 18:43:00Z
P. 10 C / 3044 m
Q. 13 C / 3041 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 10 nm
U. AF309 1728A ZETA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 174 / 48 NM 17:21:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 312 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[northjaxpro]

It depends on how much you trust the flight level winds. 95 kt seems the best guess.

Yeah 95 kts seems good to me. Unfortunately it will still have some time to get to a major

There is a reasonable chance Zeta could attain low-end Cat 3 just before landfall. Just incredible we are even witnessing this potential here on the North Central Gulf Coast just days shy of the start of November.

[Iceresistance]

2 PM update
Zeta: 105 mph
Pressure: 973 MB

[tolakram]

Zeta is starting to run over cooler water. We should see strengthening level off and steady state until landfall, but it's 2020 so .... Yet another storm to be reviewed post season most likely.

[ElectricStorm]

It depends on how much you trust the flight level winds. 95 kt seems the best guess.

Yeah 95 kts seems good to me. Unfortunately it will still have some time to get to a major

There is a reasonable chance Zeta could attain low-end Cat 3 jusit just before landfall. Just incredible we are even witnessing this potential here on the North Central Gulf Coast just days shy of the start of November.

Yeah it's only 10kts away from a major with a few more hours over water. If it keeps RIing like it has been, it will get there. Hopefully not though

[MississippiWx]

2 PM update
Zeta: 105 mph
Pressure: 973 MB

Pretty conservative call by the NHC.

Hopefully they will do continuous passes on the east side until landfall.

[Iceresistance]

Zeta is starting to run over cooler water. We should see strengthening level off and steady state until landfall, but it's 2020 so .... Yet another storm to be reviewed post season most likely.

What about Baroclinic Forcing? Dorian became a CAT 2 in 2019 just before landfall over Nova Scotia.

[Airboy]

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -126m (-413 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
986mb (29.12 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.7°C (76°F) 135° (from the SE) 69 knots (79 mph)
925mb 560m (1,837 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.5°C (71°F) 155° (from the SSE) 106 knots (122 mph)
850mb 1,294m (4,245 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 18.1°C (65°F) 175° (from the S) 111 knots (128 mph)
700mb 2,947m (9,669 ft) 12.0°C (53.6°F) 11.8°C (53°F) 200° (from the SSW) 121 knots (139 mph)

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1321511097069826048



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1321512659720622080



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1321527837971550208

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1321511097069826048

No wonder why 2020 is cursed.

[supercane4867]

Recon is going to investigate SE eyewall again.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1321511097069826048

No wonder why 2020 is cursed.

Personally, I think the combination of upper-air forcing, divergence, and rapid forward speed means a major hurricane is more likely than not even at landfall.

The expansion of the western outflow channel on the very latest imagery is starting to look a bit Michael-like, with the strongest convection occurring there.

[Blown Away]

Last hour of the loop you can see Zeta picking up forward speed each frame update. I bet close to 25+ mph at landfall, the hurricane event will be quick which is good. Most of the destruction may be farther inland.