ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Definitely looks the part, not surprised at all given its explosive organization last night. Probably 95kt at next advisory if I had to guess.

[ElectricStorm]

Remarkable pass. 119 kt FL wind supports 107 kt at the surface, which blended with the 87 kt SFMR they found, supports 97 kt, a Cat 3.

I can't believe this is actually happening right now this late in the year. I really hope everyone down there is taking this thing seriously

[CrazyC83]

It depends on how much you trust the flight level winds. 95 kt seems the best guess.

[Iceresistance]

Holy!!! Flight level winds of 119 knots!!

If I was drinking something when I saw that, it would’ve been spat out.

SFMR is up to 90-ish kt as well. This might be on the cusp of major intensity by 5pm.

Me: 5 PM?

NHC: Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 PM CDT.

[ElectricStorm]

It depends on how much you trust the flight level winds. 95 kt seems the best guess.

Yeah 95 kts seems good to me. Unfortunately it will still have some time to get to a major

[GCANE]

60 mm/hr rain rate
Eyewall lightning.
119 knot FL winds.

No doubt strengthening up to land fall

[supercane4867]

Remember both HWRF and HMON have 850mb wind peaking above 136kt(!) right at landfall. With deep convection in place it's not hard for those insane FL winds to be translated to the surface at least in the form of gusts.

[Iceresistance]

Remarkable pass. 119 kt FL wind supports 107 kt at the surface, which blended with the 87 kt SFMR they found, supports 97 kt, a Cat 3.

I can't believe this is actually happening right now this late in the year. I really hope everyone down there is taking this thing seriously

Kate 1985 was later

[ColdMiser123]

It depends on how much you trust the flight level winds. 95 kt seems the best guess.

I would trust in-situ FL wind over shallow water SFMR measurements at this point.

[ElectricStorm]

Remarkable pass. 119 kt FL wind supports 107 kt at the surface, which blended with the 87 kt SFMR they found, supports 97 kt, a Cat 3.

I can't believe this is actually happening right now this late in the year. I really hope everyone down there is taking this thing seriously

Kate 1985 was later

Yeah but this is further west

[Iceresistance]

Remember both HWRF and HMON have 850mb wind peaking above 136kt(!) right at landfall. With deep convection in place it's not hard for those insane FL winds to be translated to the surface at least in the form of gusts.

CAT 5!?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Remember both HWRF and HMON have 850mb wind peaking above 136kt(!) right at landfall. With deep convection in place it's not hard for those insane FL winds to be translated to the surface at least in the form of gusts.

CAT 5!?

No, just at the 850mb level - well above the surface.

[Steve]

Looks like the eye should stay just east of N.O.

It's really really close. If it wobbles a few more times east as it pulls NE, I will agree. I can't quite tell yet, though the consensus models did sort of indicate that earlier today.

For those who don't know, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) is the roughly the eastern half of the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[kevin]

I've been quite bullish on this storm, but even I didn't expect it to RI so much before landfall. Anyone in the area who only watched the news yesterday and expected a weakening cat 1 is going to be very surprised.

[Iceresistance]

I can't believe this is actually happening right now this late in the year. I really hope everyone down there is taking this thing seriously

Kate 1985 was later

Yeah but this is further west

What about Opal 1995?

[supercane4867]

Remarkable pass. 119 kt FL wind supports 107 kt at the surface, which blended with the 87 kt SFMR they found, supports 97 kt, a Cat 3.

I can't believe this is actually happening right now this late in the year. I really hope everyone down there is taking this thing seriously

Kate 1985 was later

Kate peaked in the central gulf and weakened quite a bit prior to landfall.

[TallyTracker]

NHC will likely be significantly upgrading the winds soon! This is insane...

[Beef Stew]

Talk about a double-take...

[cheezyWXguy]

Remember both HWRF and HMON have 850mb wind peaking above 136kt(!) right at landfall. With deep convection in place it's not hard for those insane FL winds to be translated to the surface at least in the form of gusts.

CAT 5!?

850mb winds, not surface

[MississippiWx]

Looks like the eye should stay just east of N.O.

It's really really close. If it wobbles a few more times east as it pulls NE, I will agree. I can't quite tell yet, though the consensus models did sort of indicate that earlier today.

For those who don't know, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) is the roughly the eastern half of the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Looks like it’s on a direct beeline to New Orleans currently.