ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

And to think we are only four days away from November...

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure has bottomed out at 973.2 MB by AF309 inside Zeta

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.ibb.co/8DqSBLT/last24hrs.gif

And to think we are only four days away from November...

Looks like it’s on it’s way to being a sally-esque halficane. 3/4 cane?

[underthwx]

Convection is primarily located upshear now, but the structure is too solid for any hope of rapid weakening at this point. A cat 2 landfall appears to be a lock now. This NE pass will be telling. I expect a slight uptick in winds.

Yeah, the weakening trend we've been expecting due to shear/cooler water doesn't appear like it'll happen. This'll be another intensifying hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast.

I don't think alot of us expected this, at least I didn't, based on NHC forecast....I read a good piece of advice yesterday on the NHC website, to always prepare for a category higher than is forecast, my brother lives in my parents old house in Kenner, just west of NO...he is here with us in Houston to be with my sister, he told me he didn't take the time he should have to secure the house properly, nothing we can do...I wonder.if any of the watches in Florida get extended eastward a bit?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Appears the NE quad isn't the strongest in this system per recon. SE quad is where the action is at apparently.

[Stormgodess]

Best looking CAT2 in the Atlantic basin since Alex 2010.

https://i.imgur.com/pkMY2kU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/lDDW6Jy.jpg

Question for anyone: All the models have shown almost no intensity on west side of storm as it moves inland.

But with the storm being so healthy and symmetrical is that still the case???

[supercane4867]

Appears the NE quad isn't the strongest in this system per recon. SE quad is where the action is at apparently.

And such windfield is well-predicted by models in advance. Very typical for a rapid NE moving system.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Holy!!! Flight level winds of 119 knots!!

[MississippiWx]

NE quad data is going to be interesting. Radar suggests winds in the NE are a bit stronger than the SE, although it’s still very far from the radar site and those velocities may not be getting picked up well
Edit: looks like fl winds weren’t as high. Go figure...

NE quad won’t be as high as southeast quad due to trajectory. It’s moving to the NNE so eastern eye wall/southeast quad should be strongest.

[ElectricStorm]

Holy!!! Flight level winds of 119 knots!!

Ruh-roh

[Iceresistance]

NOT GOOD

[tolakram]

183230 2807N 09104W 6975 02903 9732 +130 +118 218016 019 014 000 00
183300 2806N 09102W 6962 02915 9735 +130 +097 220020 020 014 000 00
183330 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9736 +131 +085 221020 020 019 000 00
183400 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183430 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183500 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183530 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183600 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9733 +133 +084 221020 021 022 000 00
183630 2805N 09101W 6969 02909 9737 +124 +075 227038 052 022 000 05
183700 2757N 09053W 6967 02920 9753 +117 +116 231050 055 /// /// 05
183730 2757N 09054W 6966 02917 //// +118 //// 227044 048 /// /// 05
183800 2759N 09054W 6969 02912 9741 +128 +115 217038 041 /// /// 03
183830 2800N 09052W 6960 02914 9737 +124 +117 216046 054 043 002 01
183900 2800N 09050W 6968 02910 //// +114 //// 212063 069 069 001 01
183930 2800N 09048W 6969 02914 //// +113 //// 211078 081 081 002 01
184000 2801N 09045W 6967 02926 9788 +117 //// 209088 095 085 004 01
184030 2801N 09043W 6962 02944 9813 +123 +123 211104 108 084 017 00
184100 2801N 09040W 6975 02944 9839 +121 +121 211111 112 087 017 00
184130 2801N 09038W 6971 02967 9856 +107 //// 207105 112 087 010 01
184200 2801N 09036W 6963 02988 9865 +111 +111 206107 109 080 007 00
184230 2802N 09033W 6966 02998 9884 +112 +112 205105 107 075 009 00
184300 2802N 09031W 6967 03010 9907 +112 +112 199113 119 071 016 00

[Blown Away]

Looks like the eye should stay just east of N.O.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon strongly suggesting Zeta is nearing major hurricane status. Flight level winds are even higher than they were for Sally at peak. I'd go with 95 knots based on a combination of those insane flight level winds and lower SFMR readings.

[Iceresistance]

Holy!!! Flight level winds of 119 knots!!

O_O

[aspen]

Holy!!! Flight level winds of 119 knots!!

If I was drinking something when I saw that, it would’ve been spat out.

SFMR is up to 90-ish kt as well. This might be on the cusp of major intensity by 5pm.

[ColdMiser123]

Remarkable pass. 119 kt FL wind supports 107 kt at the surface, which blended with the 87 kt SFMR they found, supports 97 kt, a Cat 3.

[supercane4867]

This is ridiculous. My uber-bullish call about to go in the money.

[kevin]

119 kts FL winds . I don't mean this in the idiom way, I literally spat out my drink when I saw that. I don't see how NHC can't go for a cat 3 at this point. Even when mixed with SFMR it still supports a major.