ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#961 Postby LARanger » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:17 pm

Kazmit wrote:Getting off topic here, but I'm not sure why a cat 5 would be a good indicator of a hyperactive season.


Human nature. You might be a racer who almost always finishes in the top five in each of 30 races, profiting more than all the one-hit wonders that take the victory lap but scarcely finish other races in the top ten, if at all . . . yet it's the one- or two-hit wonders everyone's excited about.

That said, since 2020 has it out for my state, always threatening my neck of the woods, I am quite content to never see a pinhole 5 victory-lapping my house, this year or any other.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#962 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:18 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
underthwx wrote:
And you call yourself Iceresistance?....Lol.....what part of the world are you located?....

Have you not seen my location?

FYI, location doesn't show up on mobile unless you actually click the name

He found it.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#963 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:21 pm

45 min ago.

Image
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#964 Postby underthwx » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:27 pm

I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#965 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:31 pm


Just like Gamma, this is gonna RI right until landfall in the Yucatán, albeit stronger and probably faster.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#966 Postby Blow_Hard » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:35 pm

underthwx wrote:I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there



Tropical Storm Watches extend as far East as Destin. Not expecting much in Panama City at this point. Really not much rain and local weather calls for 10-20 mph winds with occasional gusts to 25mph. Fine by me. I just feel bad for the folk that were hit hard by Sally having to face some severe weather again...
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#967 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:35 pm

underthwx wrote:I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there


If Zeta gets to @90 mph mid GOM, I bet they extend hurricane warning E. Now the are expecting minimal Cat 1 that will likely have the look of being absorbed into front as it nears the coast and interacts with the trough.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#968 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:38 pm

A lot of ice for TX/OK the next couple days. Not really a surprise that we’d have a storm coming up while the front then the high is coming down. That’s pretty scientific and has been a repeat indicator for Gulf landfalls this year.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#969 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:41 pm

aspen wrote:

Just like Gamma, this is gonna RI right until landfall in the Yucatán, albeit stronger and probably faster.

The pressure has been fairly stable for the last several hours, and the winds have not increased since then. I still would not be surprised to see some intensification before landfall.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#970 Postby underthwx » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:41 pm

Blow_Hard wrote:
underthwx wrote:I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there



Tropical Storm Watches extend as far East as Destin. Not expecting much in Panama City at this point. Really not much rain and local weather calls for 10-20 mph winds with occasional gusts to 25mph. Fine by me. I just feel bad for the folk that were hit hard by Sally having to face some severe weather again...


I hear you....
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#971 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:53 pm

Did anybody looked at the SHIPS 18z RI forecast for Zeta over the next 48 hrs, they increased from previous 12z run, how do these look? I really don't follow its RI forecast that much?

Image
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#972 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:54 pm

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#973 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:55 pm

Steve wrote:A lot of ice for TX/OK the next couple days. Not really a surprise that we’d have a storm coming up while the front then the high is coming down. That’s pretty scientific and has been a repeat indicator for Gulf landfalls this year.

This is what I'm dealing with right now!
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#974 Postby Ken711 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:05 pm

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#975 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:12 pm

Looks like the NHC has a good handle on Zeta
and they don’t believe it will go that much eastward.

underthwx wrote:I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#976 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:13 pm

underthwx wrote:I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there


We are getting some of the way, way, way, outer bands of rain tonight.

Otherwise it is a non-event unless you are like me with a vacation in Cancun in 4 weeks. :red:
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#977 Postby underthwx » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:14 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Looks like the NHC has a good handle on Zeta
and they don’t believe it will go that much eastward.

underthwx wrote:I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there


Without a doubt Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#978 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:22 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Looks like the NHC has a good handle on Zeta
and they don’t believe it will go that much eastward.

underthwx wrote:I am a bit surprised to see the Hurricane watch doesn't cover part of the Florida panhandle, I do see the Tropical Storm watches there

Unless the ridge suddenly moves east.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#979 Postby JamesRainier » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:24 pm

LARanger wrote:That said, since 2020 has it out for my state, always threatening my neck of the woods, I am quite content to never see a pinhole 5 victory-lapping my house, this year or any other.


Not a pinhole 5, but maybe it's 1985 Juan inspiring your thinking.

(Since I'm probably not the only person who tried to recall which late October hurricane did loops to Louisiana.)

From Wikipedia

Juan was the last of three hurricanes to move over Louisiana during the season, after Danny in August and Elena in early September. ...

Under the effects of a larger upper-level low, Juan slowed on October 28 while approaching the Louisiana coastline.[2] At 1200 UTC that day, the hurricane attained peak winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).[3] After executing a loop just offshore southern Louisiana, Juan turned back to the east, making landfall at peak intensity near Morgan City at 1100 UTC on October 29.[2][4] Subsequently, Juan turned sharply to the northwest, executing another loop over southern Louisiana near Lafayette. Late on October 29, the hurricane weakened to tropical storm status, emerging into Vermilion Bay early the next day with winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). Juan turned to the east, moving along the southern Louisiana coast and re-organizing slightly.[2]

On October 31, the storm moved across the Mississippi Delta near Burrwood, Louisiana, and accelerated to the northeast,[3][2] influenced by an approaching upper-level trough.[5] At 1200 UTC that day, Juan attained a secondary peak of 70 mph (110 km/h). In the subsequent six hours, the storm weakened slightly, making its final landfall just west of Pensacola, Florida with winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) late on October 31.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#980 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:52 pm

Remains at 70 kts.

28L ZETA 201027 0000 19.9N 86.6W ATL 70 983
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