ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

The GFS data consistently indicating a fairly weak system as it approaches the Gulf Coast - shear might play a bigger role IMO and overall the environment in the Gulf not favoring any strengthening.

This reminds me of Spring snows and how the increasing sun angle prevents snow from sticking on pavement - it's not so much the weather pattern but the time of year and the same is true in the Gulf, when a weather event just cannot happen because the time for it to happen fully has passed due to seasonal change...

The GFS currently has the system peaking as it makes landfall, 976mb. Not exactly weak.

On another note, the thread this morning should be a reminder that those at the NHC are the best at what they do.

[wxman57]

NHC now has a US landfall at 2:00 AM Thursday, has it slowed that much?

I plotted the hour-by hour (interpolated) NHC track. Center reaches the coast south of New Orleans 7pm Wednesday. It passes just east of New Orleans at 9:30pm. This is about 4 hrs later due to more NW movement across the Gulf before the NNE-NE turn. I'd say that if the track is adjusted, then landfall has a better chance of being farther west than farther east. Not a lot farther west.

[aspen]

Is the shear due to a non-optimal placement of the anticyclone?

[Ken711]

NHC now has a US landfall at 2:00 AM Thursday, has it slowed that much?

I plotted the hour-by hour (interpolated) NHC track. Center reaches the coast south of New Orleans 7pm Wednesday. It passes just east of New Orleans at 9:30pm. This is about 4 hrs later due to more NW movement across the Gulf before the NNE-NE turn. I'd say that if the track is adjusted, then landfall has a better chance of being farther west than farther east. Not a lot farther west.

Thanks.

[HurricaneEnzo]

The GFS data consistently indicating a fairly weak system as it approaches the Gulf Coast - shear might play a bigger role IMO and overall the environment in the Gulf not favoring any strengthening.

This reminds me of Spring snows and how the increasing sun angle prevents snow from sticking on pavement - it's not so much the weather pattern but the time of year and the same is true in the Gulf, when a weather event just cannot happen because the time for it to happen fully has passed due to seasonal change...

The GFS currently has the system peaking as it makes landfall, 976mb. Not exactly weak.

On another note, the thread this morning should be a reminder that those at the NHC are the best at what they do.

I know there are a lot of environmental factors that effect the stength of a system but generally speaking 976mb could be High Cat 1 to Low Cat 2 range. Definitely nothing to scoff at.

[Iceresistance]

It really looks like a hurricane right now.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/28L.ZETA/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg

When is recon supposed to enter the storm again? Indeed looks very hurricane-like atm, at least better than Nana when it was a minimal cat 1.

One of the Recon planes is either having trouble landing or they got called back again.

[GCANE]

Cold pool has warmed some since yesterday.
As a result, rain-rate has diminished somewhat.

[Aric Dunn]

center is exposed again and looks to be heading west. meaning there might be another vort in the convection and both are rotating around each other.

[crimi481]

Last few frames, Looks like drifted S.W ?

[underthwx]

NHC now has a US landfall at 2:00 AM Thursday, has it slowed that much?

I plotted the hour-by hour (interpolated) NHC track. Center reaches the coast south of New Orleans 7pm Wednesday. It passes just east of New Orleans at 9:30pm. This is about 4 hrs later due to more NW movement across the Gulf before the NNE-NE turn. I'd say that if the track is adjusted, then landfall has a better chance of being farther west than farther east. Not a lot farther west.

After landfall, Zeta should be moving quickly to the NE, correct?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1320715930884820993

[SouthDadeFish]

The overnight NOAA P3 radar data showed the TC centers at heights of 2 km and 7 km were about 100 km misaligned. That is a pretty significant tilt and suggests we will see minimal intensification in the short term. Satellite trends this morning show nothing to suggest the tilt weakening, and it may be even greater now. I am skeptical Zeta becomes a hurricane prior to landfall in the Yucatan.

[cp79]

It looks like the center is once again running away from the convection. New center again could be reforming south around 18N, 84W. Anyone else seeing this possibility?

[aspen]

The overnight NOAA P3 radar data showed the TC centers at heights of 2 km and 7 km were about 100 km misaligned. That is a pretty significant tilt and suggests we will see minimal intensification in the short term. Satellite trends this morning show nothing to suggest the tilt weakening, and it may be even greater now. I am skeptical Zeta becomes a hurricane prior to landfall in the Yucatan.

100 km misaligned?! Where on Earth is all of that shear coming from?

[AutoPenalti]

The overnight NOAA P3 radar data showed the TC centers at heights of 2 km and 7 km were about 100 km misaligned. That is a pretty significant tilt and suggests we will see minimal intensification in the short term. Satellite trends this morning show nothing to suggest the tilt weakening, and it may be even greater now. I am skeptical Zeta becomes a hurricane prior to landfall in the Yucatan.

100 km misaligned?! Where on Earth is all of that shear coming from?

Shear seems to be all mid-level.

[supercane4867]

Center becoming exposed again.

[aspen]

The overnight NOAA P3 radar data showed the TC centers at heights of 2 km and 7 km were about 100 km misaligned. That is a pretty significant tilt and suggests we will see minimal intensification in the short term. Satellite trends this morning show nothing to suggest the tilt weakening, and it may be even greater now. I am skeptical Zeta becomes a hurricane prior to landfall in the Yucatan.

100 km misaligned?! Where on Earth is all of that shear coming from?

Shear seems to be all mid-level.

I guess mid-level shear hates October systems approaching the Yucatán as much as the 2020 season hates Louisiana.

[ElectricStorm]

I guess the models didn't show this strengthening much before the Yucatan for a reason... Looks like peak may be in the gulf now although if Zeta is still as bad as it is now it may not recover after crossing land

[Frank P]

Hot tower Just started firing off in the SE quad near the center on the latest vis sat loop

[wxman57]

NHC now has a US landfall at 2:00 AM Thursday, has it slowed that much?

I plotted the hour-by hour (interpolated) NHC track. Center reaches the coast south of New Orleans 7pm Wednesday. It passes just east of New Orleans at 9:30pm. This is about 4 hrs later due to more NW movement across the Gulf before the NNE-NE turn. I'd say that if the track is adjusted, then landfall has a better chance of being farther west than farther east. Not a lot farther west.

After landfall, Zeta should be moving quickly to the NE, correct?

I have it moving at 25+ mph at landfall and 30-40 mph across southern MS to northern GA Thursday morning.