ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gfsperpendicular]

Should be a very interesting recon pass. If the center is directly underneath that large convective burst, they might find a hurricane. If it's still to the NW, they might find a TS that hasn't really strengthened.

[ClarCari]

Pressures already in 990s and it just entered the CDO...

[LarryWx]

OK, now I think it may have started to rapidly strengthen based on not just the latest recon but also on the latest sat loop. Is that an eye suddenly trying to appear?

[us89]

Extrap surface pressure looks to be down to 993.7 mb.

[CrazyC83]

Wind data also suggests a 55 kt intensity, with a possible case for 60 kt.

[galaxy401]

Hurricane force winds found from the most recent pass through Zeta. Highest FL and SMFR winds were both 69 kts. The pass went through the NE quadrant. Zeta is really ramping up now.

[Chemmers]

A pin hole eye might not be off the cards if it can keep up with the intensification

[GCANE]

Last VDM fixes CoC east of forecast track

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 7:32:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.61N 84.16W (View map)
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.30 inHg)

[xironman]

Down 2mb in an 1.5 hours, not bad.

[bella_may]

Could this reach category two before US landfall? Starting to think it’s a possibility

[JamesRainier]

Moving: NW at 9 mph

[Dean4Storms]

Could this reach category two before US landfall? Starting to think it’s a possibility

I think that will depend on how deep it remains and organized after it emerges off the Yucatán into the Gulf. Potential is there for a stronger storm than currently forecast, we have seen that before, heh?

[Alacane3]

Does anyone have an idea as to when hurricane/tropical storm watches will be issued for the northern Gulf Coast? Any idea where the watches will be?

[bella_may]

Does anyone have an idea as to when hurricane/tropical storm watches will be issued for the northern Gulf Coast? Any idea where the watches will be?

I think at least a tropical storm watch by the end of the day. Morgan city to Pensacola if I had to guess

[Dean4Storms]

Does anyone have an idea as to when hurricane/tropical storm watches will be issued for the northern Gulf Coast? Any idea where the watches will be?

I think at least a tropical storm watch by the end of the day. Morgan city to Pensacola if I had to guess

They might come further eastward with the TS Watches seeing that Zeta is expected to make a NE movement. I am thinking to at least Destin if not Panama City. All the highest winds and weather will be on the eastern periphery. Hurricane Watches might stop at P’Cola.

[Dean4Storms]

Is it just me or does it appear that the LLC is moving out at the NW edge of convection once again? Looks like the MLC is hanging back while the LLC started moving NW.

[kevin]

Zeta's latest water vapor loop looks incredible:

[Iceresistance]

NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ZETA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING
Zeta has been found at 70 mph.

t's also found that Zeta is moving to the NW.

The 992 MB center fix is the latest one as of 5:40 AM, the center looks to have a center reformation again.


Also note the crazy convective boom CDO.

[Iceresistance]

The center looks displaced again by recon, more center reformation?

[GCANE]

Anticyclone positioned along the north Belize coast causing some UL NW winds over the CoC.
However, outflow on the NW quad appears to be improving indicating the anticyclone maybe weakening or moving closer to the CoC.