ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Believe it or not, this is at least the fourth forecast cone we've had in Atlanta so far this year after Laura, Sally, and Delta. Current NHC forecast already has us at a 20% chance of TS force winds.

If the track shifts west like several other storms this year have done, we would once again be on the right side of a landfalling Gulf storm. Depending on track, timing, and other factors, we might even see another tornado event similar to what we had with Delta.

This is like the 2004-5 seasons, which combined gave multi-inch rainfall and other effects to Atlanta from 5 different storms!

[Stormgodess]

It should start really moving by tomorrow morning as ridging builds to the north over FL forcing it to move WNW to NW towards the Yucatan P.

Or better yet....out to sea to cold water......

What cold weather?
https://i.imgur.com/ZHr12lv.gif

Speaking of cold weather, is that "Arctic Blast" trough gone from last week? I havent been following the weather. Has there ever been a tropical system run into one? That would be interesting to see

[aspen]

I’m going to guess we’ll have 60 kt TS Zeta at 8am tomorrow, pressure in the range of 987-992 mbar.

[hipshot]

Or better yet....out to sea to cold water......

What cold weather?
https://i.imgur.com/ZHr12lv.gif

Speaking of cold weather, is that "Arctic Blast" trough gone from last week? I havent been following the weather. Has there ever been a tropical system run into one? That would be interesting to see

We have a big one coming from the north east through Texas tonight and the next couple of days and it is going to be unseasonably cold for the
next 3-5 days. I don't know how far south it will get though.

[NDG]

ASCAT pass two hours ago.

[hipshot]

ASCAT pass two hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/qITXXo4.jpg

From that it looks like the LLC and the MLC is almost stacked at least the LLC appears to have moved under the big convection blob for the first
time. However, JM2C, not a weather guy.

[underthwx]

Or better yet....out to sea to cold water......

What cold weather?
https://i.imgur.com/ZHr12lv.gif

Speaking of cold weather, is that "Arctic Blast" trough gone from last week? I havent been following the weather. Has there ever been a tropical system run into one? That would be interesting to see

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Delta sort of defy a frontal system?....sorry to try to answer your question, with a question...

[NDG]

ASCAT pass two hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/qITXXo4.jpg

From that it looks like the LLC and the MLC is almost stacked at least the LLC appears to have moved under the big convection blob for the first
time. However, JM2C, not a weather guy.

I would say is on the northern edge of the convection, at least 2 hours ago.

[JamesRainier]

The cone is all but off Florida now, and further west in Louisiana.

[NDG]

What cold weather?
https://i.imgur.com/ZHr12lv.gif

Speaking of cold weather, is that "Arctic Blast" trough gone from last week? I havent been following the weather. Has there ever been a tropical system run into one? That would be interesting to see

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Delta sort of defy a frontal system?....

The cold front was retreating west when Delta moved into the GOM.
Arctic blast coming down to western Texas will not reach Zeta.

[ElectricStorm]

I think the next recon should be taking off right about now. Hasn't appeared on tropical tidbits yet though.

[ColdMiser123]

ASCAT pass two hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/qITXXo4.jpg

Very cold convection approaching -90 C is firing up just east of 18 N/84 W, close to where ASCAT showed the circulation.

Given the slow forward movement currently, it's reasonable to assume the current center location is in a similar location to where the circulation was at 940 pm EDT.

[underthwx]

Speaking of cold weather, is that "Arctic Blast" trough gone from last week? I havent been following the weather. Has there ever been a tropical system run into one? That would be interesting to see

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Delta sort of defy a frontal system?....

The cold front was retreating west when Delta moved into the GOM.
Arctic blast coming down to western Texas will not reach Zeta.

Yes...we here on the Texas coast remain fortunate this season....albeit at a great cost to my friends to the east.....I personally feel their pain, and loss....it's been 3 years since Harvey took our home...seems like yesterday....ever since then, I have a heightened sense of anxiety and concern, wherever, and whenever a storm is active....Zeta is having that effect on me now....

[underthwx]

Believe it or not, this is at least the fourth forecast cone we've had in Atlanta so far this year after Laura, Sally, and Delta. Current NHC forecast already has us at a 20% chance of TS force winds.

If the track shifts west like several other storms this year have done, we would once again be on the right side of a landfalling Gulf storm. Depending on track, timing, and other factors, we might even see another tornado event similar to what we had with Delta.

This is like the 2004-5 seasons, which combined gave multi-inch rainfall and other effects to Atlanta from 5 different storms!

That is incredible!....5 different storms that affected a major metropolitan city....I had no idea that Atlanta had 5 different storms in a relatively short amount of time...

[us89]

Believe it or not, this is at least the fourth forecast cone we've had in Atlanta so far this year after Laura, Sally, and Delta. Current NHC forecast already has us at a 20% chance of TS force winds.

If the track shifts west like several other storms this year have done, we would once again be on the right side of a landfalling Gulf storm. Depending on track, timing, and other factors, we might even see another tornado event similar to what we had with Delta.

This is like the 2004-5 seasons, which combined gave multi-inch rainfall and other effects to Atlanta from 5 different storms!

The last thing we need here is yet another round of heavy rain and flash flooding. I think we've had at least four flash flood warnings in the past few months from a combination of tropical (Sally, Delta) and non-tropical systems. Last night's rain was even bad enough for a "considerable" FFW damage threat tag, resulting in WEAs getting sent to everyone's phones...needless to say, the soils around here are quite saturated.

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA plane is on the way.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's developing one of those big western bands that some intense TC's have...

[tiger_deF]

Looks like it's developing one of those big western bands that some intense TC's have...
https://i.imgur.com/oIEbubO.gif

Very shrimpular, wouldn't be suprised if Zeta is a high range TS by now

[Deshaunrob17]

I can't remember the last time I saw the CMC model with sub 970mb in the Long Range

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's developing one of those big western bands that some intense TC's have...
[url]https://i.imgur.com/oIEbubO.gif[url]

Yeah we see this in some strong WPAC and EPAC systems.