ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Recon pulling up to 700mb
They are flying hurricane mode now.

Or maybe they're done?

Yup, they're done

[StormSkeptic]

How low?

29.70" and falling

Recon has found 997 MB at the reformed center

Pretty impressive drop in pressure, 6 mb, in about 2,5 hrs. Especially considering the structure is not all that great (yet).
Center Fix Pressure
18:21 1003
19:14 1000
20:50 997

[underthwx]

Just about off-scale on radar.
Going into the night and the upper-tropopshere cooling off rapidly, spells very good probability of quick intensification overnight.
Being over that cold pool means very little inhibition, it can strengthen under some pretty strong shear.
It can sustain itself as long as the cold pool remains intact.

https://i.imgur.com/Pfj4vt2.jpg

Do you feel that will happen Gcane?

[Iceresistance]

They left just as we needed them the most!

NOAA2 Mission #3 into ZETA
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: Finished

[cycloneye]

New Levi Cowan video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1320477409632727042

[GCANE]

Just about off-scale on radar.
Going into the night and the upper-tropopshere cooling off rapidly, spells very good probability of quick intensification overnight.
Being over that cold pool means very little inhibition, it can strengthen under some pretty strong shear.
It can sustain itself as long as the cold pool remains intact.

https://i.imgur.com/Pfj4vt2.jpg

Do you feel that will happen Gcane?

Likely in the W Carib.
Not sure in the GoM though.
Need to think that thru more.

[Iceresistance]

New Levi Cowan video.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1320477409632727042

Is the Gulf Coast landfall zone is close to Laura & Delta?

[Iceresistance]

Just about off-scale on radar.
Going into the night and the upper-tropopshere cooling off rapidly, spells very good probability of quick intensification overnight.
Being over that cold pool means very little inhibition, it can strengthen under some pretty strong shear.
It can sustain itself as long as the cold pool remains intact.

https://i.imgur.com/Pfj4vt2.jpg

Do you feel that will happen Gcane?

Likely in the W Carib.
Not sure in the GoM though.
Need to think that thru more.

Only Time will tell on this one, do you have more rain rate radar?

[ElectricStorm]

29.70" and falling

Recon has found 997 MB at the reformed center

Pretty impressive drop in pressure, 6 mb, in about 2,5 hrs. Especially considering the structure is not all that great (yet).
Center Fix Pressure
18:21 1003
19:14 1000
20:50 997

The fact that it's doing this with a less-than ideal structure is very concerning. Imagine what it can do when it's fully stacked.

[GCANE]

Do you feel that will happen Gcane?

Likely in the W Carib.
Not sure in the GoM though.
Need to think that thru more.

Only Time will tell on this one, do you have more rain rate radar?

This is the latest rain rate I have.
It's not letting up.

[Iceresistance]

Likely in the W Carib.
Not sure in the GoM though.
Need to think that thru more.

Only Time will tell on this one, do you have more rain rate radar?

This is the latest rain rate I have.
It's not letting up.

https://i.imgur.com/BwAnHA7.png

The rain rate is now larger, & more lightning

[Iceresistance]

Cloud tops nearing -100 C

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/984bb022-b625-4ee4-9624-2c2369271eb2

[Frank2]

They left just as we needed them the most!

Fuel budget requirement for the trip back to Lakeland. I was an observer on a HH flight many moons ago - the TS center was offshore Havana so we were close enough that fuel wasn't an issue getting back to Key West or Miami...

[Blinhart]

Has any state ever had 5 landfalling systems in one season??? Louisiana can't get out of the cross-hairs, it is time for 2020 to end.

[aspen]

Recon has found 997 MB at the reformed center

Pretty impressive drop in pressure, 6 mb, in about 2,5 hrs. Especially considering the structure is not all that great (yet).
Center Fix Pressure
18:21 1003
19:14 1000
20:50 997

The fact that it's doing this with a less-than ideal structure is very concerning. Imagine what it can do when it's fully stacked.

That’s a deepening rate of 2.4 mb/hr. Let’s say that intensification rate remains constant for the next 30 hours before landfall...Zeta would peak in the 920s as a Cat 4/5 hurricane.

I’m not saying this is gonna be a Cat 5, but if it continues this rate and vertically stacks, then a major is a pretty good possibility.

[Hurricaneman]

Cloud tops nearing -100 C

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/984bb022-b625-4ee4-9624-2c2369271eb2

Insane, if this stacks it could become an upper echelon hurricane so let’s hope the northerly shear continues

[underthwx]

Pretty impressive drop in pressure, 6 mb, in about 2,5 hrs. Especially considering the structure is not all that great (yet).
Center Fix Pressure
18:21 1003
19:14 1000
20:50 997

The fact that it's doing this with a less-than ideal structure is very concerning. Imagine what it can do when it's fully stacked.

That’s a deepening rate of 2.4 mb/hr. Let’s say that intensification rate remains constant for the next 30 hours before landfall...Zeta would peak in the 920s as a Cat 4/5 hurricane.

I’m not saying this is gonna be a Cat 5, but if it continues this rate and vertically stacks, then a major is a pretty good possibility.

What are the sustained winds at now?.....

[ElectricStorm]

The fact that it's doing this with a less-than ideal structure is very concerning. Imagine what it can do when it's fully stacked.

That’s a deepening rate of 2.4 mb/hr. Let’s say that intensification rate remains constant for the next 30 hours before landfall...Zeta would peak in the 920s as a Cat 4/5 hurricane.

I’m not saying this is gonna be a Cat 5, but if it continues this rate and vertically stacks, then a major is a pretty good possibility.

What are the sustained winds at now?.....

50 mph right now

[Ian2401]

so the center has reformed / is still reforming to the SE. how does this affect future trajectory? i would think it would lead to perhaps and earlier NE ejection? need someone smarter to explain

[Iceresistance]

so the center has reformed / is still reforming to the SE. how does this affect future trajectory? i would think it would lead to perhaps and earlier NE ejection? need someone smarter to explain

I came up with this: If Zeta keeps having a center reformation, the system will be forced farther east with a ridge, introducing the possiblity of a Florida landfall because the ridge is slowly moving east along the Gulf of Mexico.
Because of center reformation, the system either slows down or speeds up, Zeta's reformation is slowing it down since it's more south.