ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

RMW has tightened considerably since yesterday on the eastern semicircle according to this most recent recon pass.

[GCANE]

Just about off-scale on radar.
Going into the night and the upper-tropopshere cooling off rapidly, spells very good probability of quick intensification overnight.
Being over that cold pool means very little inhibition, it can strengthen under some pretty strong shear.
It can sustain itself as long as the cold pool remains intact.

[Iceresistance]

Almost 50 mm/hr rain rate recorded by Recon.
Indicates strong latent heating of the core.
Also seeing a deepening of the cold pool at 550mb.
Very good indication that this will strengthen.


https://i.imgur.com/T6SMOif.gif

This does not look good, Delta's cold water trail is nonexistant because of how small it was with a pinhole eye.

Also because of the insane OHC... Anything that formes a solid core can really explode down there like Gamma and Delta

That is what my is gut is telling me. D: (NOTE: This is making me very nervous & stressed, I'm fine right now, but I have a very bad feeling about this. . .)

[Iceresistance]

999.1 mbar extrapolated! This is still strengthening, and at a respectable pace too.

Another reading just showed 998.5 MB Extrapolated.

UPDATE: The lowest one is 998.2 MB right now. Could very well get even lower as recon is sampling the pressure & wind speed.

[GCANE]

Pressure making new lows now at the Yucatan buoy.

[Iceresistance]

Pressure making new lows now at the Yucatan buoy.

How low?

[underthwx]

"The center has been meandering this afternoon, and apparently has
reformed nearer to the deep convection over the southeastern
quadrant. Since this is not considered representative of
larger-scale motion, the system is still considered to be
quasi-stationary at this time"...(Excerpt from 5 pm NHC Zeta Discussion).........I came to my own conclusion earlier in regards to Zetas center moving south....when in reality it was reforming it's center, as indicated above in the 5 pm discussion....the moral to the story is....I need to stop second guessing the experts at the NHC....if they say it's so....it's so....and I am speaking only of myself....I am finding out that learning to understand, and utilizing the tools provided, in understanding everything in the world of tropical cyclones....involves being wrong...I got that one down for sure!...learning from it, .and I think another quality is patience, and last but not least....I am fortunate to be able to interact with all of you, and learn from yall.....I don't mean to ramble on....but I love following tropical weather as long as I can remember....I'm not on yalls level....but you put up with me anyways....I thank each and everyone of you....

[Nimbus]

Anyone notice the NOAA9 Mission #4 into ZETA graphic on Levi's recon site?
Just a calibration error with hurricane force flight level winds east of Dade?

[ElectricStorm]

Anyone notice the NOAA9 Mission #4 into ZETA graphic on Levi's recon site?
Just a calibration error with hurricane force flight level winds east of Dade?

I think that an upper level mission.

[Iceresistance]

UH OH

[GCANE]

Pressure making new lows now at the Yucatan buoy.

How low?

29.70" and falling

[Iceresistance]

Pressure making new lows now at the Yucatan buoy.

How low?

29.70" and falling

Recon has found 997 MB at the reformed center

[Nimbus]

Anyone notice the NOAA9 Mission #4 into ZETA graphic on Levi's recon site?
Just a calibration error with hurricane force flight level winds east of Dade?

I think that an upper level mission.

Edward Leedskalnin's anti gravity equipment must be messing up the flight instrumentation.

[GCANE]

UH OH


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0328A-ZETA_dropsonde17_20201025-2050.png

VDM just in.
3mb drop since last fix.
No mention of an eye though.

[Iceresistance]

Anyone notice the NOAA9 Mission #4 into ZETA graphic on Levi's recon site?
Just a calibration error with hurricane force flight level winds east of Dade?

I think that an upper level mission.

Yes, that is the upper level/dropsonde mission of Zeta (I accidently spelled Zetra, would that be a good 'Z' name?)

[GCANE]

Recon pulling up to 700mb
They are flying hurricane mode now.

[Nimbus]

UH OH


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0328A-ZETA_dropsonde17_20201025-2050.png

VDM just in.
3mb drop since last fix.
No mention of an eye though.

We just had a big hot tower burst pulling that down hopefully not a trend but you never know.

[ElectricStorm]

Recon pulling up to 700mb
They are flying hurricane mode now.

Or maybe they're done?

[wxman57]

Can clearly see the center NW of the convection on high-res visible. Max FL wind the plane could find was about 50 kts. Some evidence of a small area of 45kt winds SE of the center. Otherwise, winds generally below TS strength. Struggling with northerly wind shear, though the shear should be decreasing tonight/tomorrow. Hope the long-range GFS is wrong...

[Iceresistance]

Recon pulling up to 700mb
They are flying hurricane mode now.

They are like 'rapid deepening any moment now, we are flying higher so that we can be safer.'