ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Nothing but SW winds under the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/4gqJAEX.png

True enough, although I sure would have liked to have seen recon sample a bit further south and significantly further east. They clearly found the weak center of the overall broad low but if that MLC persists and remains to the south, I'd sure like to know how near the surface that any closed reflection might be found. Furthermore, as long as the present LLC were to remain as removed from the MLC and devoid of co-located banding then I can't see how the broad gradient and weak winds near center substantiate an upgrade to T.D.

[aspen]

No need for you all to guess where it is anymore..

it will likely be doing a bunch of small loops as convection builds.. and some reformations as well.

https://i.ibb.co/rytTYc0/4.gif

Finally, the little swirly we’ve all been looking for. It already has some convection firing near it; Dmax could push it over the edge.

[Blown Away]

Based on satellite and the limited recon data so far, I don't believe this is a depression yet.

We will see what recon finds as they sample more, it also may become a depression while they are investigating it.

.

18z best track position looks good, that's where recon is finding the broad center plus the lowest surface pressure.

I guess officially at the moment, but I believe 95L is in reformation and we will see that MLC to the SE will likely become the dominant circulation. JHMO

[LarryWx]

If the recon based center is really at 18.2N 83.6W, then that means it is a bit SW of the 12Z Euro/UK though not too far off.

[Nimbus]

Dry shear almost exposing the center but the first trough is going to miss and after high pressure returns there will be a moist flow from the east then from the southeast.

[ClarCari]

I could see the NHC going anyway for classification right now. I could see them waiting for later tonight or initiate a PTC or TD. It wouldn’t be unusual for there to be some center relocations in TD’s afterall.

[ozonepete]

Nothing but SW winds under the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/4gqJAEX.png

True enough, although I sure would have liked to have seen recon sample a bit further south and significantly further east. They clearly found the weak center of the overall broad low but if that MLC persists and remains to the south, I'd sure like to know how near the surface that any closed reflection might be found. Furthermore, as long as the present LLC were to remain as removed from the MLC and devoid of co-located banding then I can't see how the broad gradient and weak winds near center substantiate an upgrade to T.D.

It's still consolidating, slowly. As is so often the case, there are a few low level centers swirling around near the MLC. Sometimes the MLC "moves" or slowly phases towards the dominant LLC and sometimes the final LLC forms under the MLC. In the latter case it can take longer and you obviously can't see it on sat and can't find it until RECON does. Aric is the best at finding it before anyone else but I'm waiting on RECON for this one, as long as they go over further east.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like they are headed eastward now

[aspen]

Fingers crossed for PTC-28 at 5pm.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1320090256646021121

[NDG]

Guys there is nothing down south of the 18th latitude, nothing but westerly winds down there, now the recon is heading towards the area that Aric and I suspect where a more defined LLC might be getting going.

[Blown Away]

Guys there is nothing down south of the 18th latitude, nothing but westerly winds down there, now the recon is heading towards the area that Aric and I suspect where a more defined LLC might be getting going.

https://i.imgur.com/i1KGH8F.jpg

Yes, I agree, but that area is almost completely void of convection. Some convection is building to the SE of the very broad weak LLC, but I think an argument could be made it’s also related to the MLC I estimate near 17.4N/82.1W. Only time will tell.

[Frank P]

Guys there is nothing down south of the 18th latitude, nothing but westerly winds down there, now the recon is heading towards the area that Aric and I suspect where a more defined LLC might be getting going.

https://i.imgur.com/i1KGH8F.jpg

That definitely looks like the center to me on the vis sat loops, quite the buildup of convection on the southeast side of the center... looks like it won’t be much longer till it becomes a depression to me if the convection continues to fire off near and the center..

[Aric Dunn]

Guys there is nothing down south of the 18th latitude, nothing but westerly winds down there, now the recon is heading towards the area that Aric and I suspect where a more defined LLC might be getting going.

https://i.imgur.com/i1KGH8F.jpg

There are almost certianly multiple virts at this point. recon is flying through the "mean" center. but as it always goes.. follow the convection..

convection firing with that circ is a likely place for consolidation.

[NDG]

There it is.

URNT15 KWBC 242004
NOAA3 01HHA INVEST HDOB 20 20201024
195430 1848N 08329W 9710 00306 0050 +259 //// 357006 007 008 000 01
195500 1847N 08327W 9715 00304 0050 +259 //// 358006 006 008 000 01
195530 1847N 08325W 9715 00304 0050 +258 //// 003005 005 009 000 01
195600 1847N 08323W 9716 00303 0050 +258 //// 001005 005 008 000 01
195630 1847N 08321W 9716 00303 0050 +258 //// 358004 004 008 000 01
195700 1847N 08319W 9715 00304 0050 +258 //// 002003 003 008 000 01
195730 1847N 08317W 9715 00304 0050 +257 //// 006003 003 007 000 01
195800 1846N 08315W 9713 00304 0050 +257 //// 001002 002 007 000 01
195830 1846N 08313W 9714 00305 0050 +257 //// 009003 003 007 000 01
195900 1846N 08311W 9711 00305 0049 +257 //// 022003 003 006 000 01
195930 1846N 08309W 9717 00302 0049 +257 //// 013002 002 007 000 01
200000 1846N 08307W 9715 00302 0049 +258 //// 003001 001 006 000 01
200030 1845N 08305W 9711 00303 0047 +257 //// 017002 003 007 000 01
200100 1845N 08303W 9714 00301 0047 +257 //// 009003 004 008 000 01
200130 1845N 08301W 9713 00301 0047 +256 //// 006003 003 009 000 01
200200 1845N 08259W 9716 00300 0047 +257 //// 350004 004 011 000 01
200230 1845N 08257W 9711 00301 0045 +258 //// 347003 003 010 000 01
200300 1844N 08255W 9709 00304 0046 +256 //// 030003 004 010 000 01
200330 1844N 08253W 9713 00302 0047 +257 //// 078002 003 009 000 05
200400 1844N 08252W 9714 00301 0046 +256 //// 134003 003 012 000 05

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1320094891129536512

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1320094891129536512

[aspen]

Oh, they went right for a fully-fledged TC.

[NDG]

[wxman57]

Based on satellite and the limited recon data so far, I don't believe this is a depression yet.

We will see what recon finds as they sample more, it also may become a depression while they are investigating it.

Agree, but 18z has 95L at 18.5N/83.2W and I think it’s near 17.6N/82.2W.

18z best track position looks good, that's where recon is finding the broad center plus the lowest surface pressure.

My initial position for 20Z was 18.5N/83.1W, though its precise location doesn't make a lot of difference as far as its future.