ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricanehink]

The calendar doesn't lie. It's do or die time for a CONUS threat and it looks like the latter is at hand.

There have been CONUS hits in November before.

#TWO since 1851 and neither one came from the Caribbean

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Keith_(1988)

[toad strangler]

There have been CONUS hits in November before.

#TWO since 1851 and neither one came from the Caribbean

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Keith_(1988)

Context is hurricanes. Not TS or D's

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks pretty messy to me. Seems like the low-level center is quite broad and displaced north of the deepest convection. The convective structure is weird. Almost looks like a squall line moving off to the S, away from the LLC.

[TheStormExpert]

It looks to me the LLC is still displaced to the north of the MLC further south. Recon should find it to be at least a TD if not a TS, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/zBcXcCe.gif

I’m sorry but this looks nothing like a TD or TS in my opinion. Maybe recon will prove me wrong but it looks like nothing more than a hot mess right now.

[cycloneye]

For those who were waiting to see the first mission depart at 11 AM {Miss Piggy), they changed it to noon EDT. Follow the mission at the 95L Recon Thread

REMARK: THE TAKEOFF TIMES FOR TODAY'S NOAA 43 AND TONIGHT'S
NOAA 42 MISSIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO 24/1600Z AND 25/0330Z,
RESPECTIVELY.

[cycloneye]

Gonzo will fly on Sunday night.

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1320043368068644865

[NewbieAboutcyclones]

It looks to me the LLC is still displaced to the north of the MLC further south. Recon should find it to be at least a TD if not a TS, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/zBcXcCe.gif

I’m sorry but this looks nothing like a TD or TS in my opinion. Maybe recon will prove me wrong but it looks like nothing more than a hot mess right now.

[aspen]

Miss Piggy is on her way, finally.

[chaser1]

Looks pretty messy to me. Seems like the low-level center is quite broad and displaced north of the deepest convection. The convective structure is weird. Almost looks like a squall line moving off to the S, away from the LLC.

I kind of agree when I compare what yesterday's morning visible looked like in comparison to what we're seeing right now. We either have a severely vertically challenged hot mess OR if I allow myself to "un-see" what 95L looked like yesterday..... a northeast/southwest tilted surface low that is trying to redevelop further to the southwest around 17.5N & 83W. So, what I believe what we are now seeing is the mid level low moving slowly west or SW in response to the increased ridging occurring over S. Texas and the Western Gulf. Meanwhile, it is my quess that the old LLC close to Grand Cayman is competing with a new LLC attempting to form closer to the mid level low and within the area of greatest convection. If this in fact is occurring, then it'll be at least into tomorrow before we see significantly improved organization due to the competing surface convergence between a new LLC and an unwinding LLC further near Grand Cayman. If all this played out, then I don't see how this avoids moving initially westward over Belize or S. Yucatan in about 24-48 hr.s and perhaps emerging off the NW tip of Yucatan or southeastern BOC as a real mess in about 3 days. Whether i'm right or wrong, upper anticyclonic conditions near Yucatan will appear to be ripe for development (or deepening) in the 3 to 4 day period. Steering flow at that time would suggest a northward tendency that begins evolving to a more NE to ENE motion if any storm were in the Gulf as late as Thursday of next week. The problem we have is that it remains unclear whether we have a consolidating disturbance further southwest or just a large hot mess with a LLC displaced to the northeast of most convection. How either scenario evolves will play a big role in timing too. To me, the strongest and scariest scenario (and least likely) would be for a storm to develop further displaced to the south and somehow drift erratically in some COL for days, only to finally feel the northward tug ahead of a deeper short wave around the Thursday/Friday period and eventually track near E. Yucatan and then toward the Cedar Key region as a Cat 2-3 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Here she goes.

[wxman57]

Very disorganized today. Maybe a TD tomorrow. I have a TS passing NE Caribbean Monday night and landfall west of Pensacola 50-55 kts Wednesday night.

[edu2703]

Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that an area of low
pressure located about 125 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman
Island continues to become better organized, and if current trends
continue, advisories will be initiated on a tropical depression this
afternoon or evening. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development while the low drifts toward the north and
northwest this weekend. The system could move near western Cuba on
Monday and move across the southern Gulf of Mexico or the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Interests
in western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this low. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance
aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and northeastern
Yucatan through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[gatorcane]

Odd track for late October but here is the NHC shading:

[CyclonicFury]

This wasn't a ghost after all.

[aspen]

This wasn't a ghost after all.

Finally...it only took over two weeks and 1,400 posts to get to this point.

[sunnyday]

With 100% chance of a tc forming and moving west, can we feel comfortable in saying that the people in South Florida are out of the race yet again?

[Shell Mound]

This wasn't a ghost after all.

Finally...it only took over two weeks and 1,400 posts to get to this point.

...and it did so on the fifteenth anniversary of Wilma’s landfall in Florida, just before Halloween, “to boot.”

[wxman57]

With 100% chance of a tc forming and moving west, can we feel comfortable in saying that the people in South Florida are out of the race yet again?

I don't think you'll see much in south Florida. Ridge will be building over Florida by Monday.

[Blown Away]

Odd track for late October but here is the NHC shading:

https://i.postimg.cc/VkSFmQ9b/two-atl-5d0.png

Just @30 hrs ago the track was over E Cuba, SE Bahamas, and OTS... It’s late October, it won’t be this easy per 2pm...

[cp79]

I haven’t a clue where the center is. It’s a mess on visible. Maybe under Grand Cayman, a little SE of where the NHC says it is. I don’t know. An ugly mess right now and just basically sitting and spinning.