ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

May be that the ICON has the best idea. Moderate TS Mon/Tue but weakening as it moves into the FL Panhandle near Panama City Wednesday. More shear with approaching upper trof, along with some dry air. Could be 50-55 kts at landfall. I've been taking Wed-Fri off (so many comp days and vacation days), so I'm well-rested.

[ClarCari]

Yeah not looking good for 95L. Could be heading for a slow death here soon.

Nothing at all indicates it dying right now. Now if trends start taking it straight into the gulf then it might slowly meet it’s demise after being named Zeta.

[toad strangler]

The calendar doesn't lie. It's do or die time for a CONUS threat and it looks like the latter is at hand.

[Loveweather12]

I really hope no one is writing off this storm yet. I remember people saying ( I remember the names) that the season is over and see you in June and look at the storm today. Counting out a storm won’t help. Please for the sake of complacency & just common sense, don’t write off a storm especially when the NHC thinks it has a high chance of developing.

[AutoPenalti]

Yeah not looking good for 95L. Could be heading for a slow death here soon.

Nothing indicates that this is “heading for a slow death”

Daytime Heating has waned, in an organizing TC you expect this to happen.

[Spacecoast]

NAV joins the UKM w/ genesis (80%, pre-cuba), then re-genesis (47%, post-cuba) scenario

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or has this relocated to the SSW under the new blob of convection

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the new convection firing I would guess that the COC is now directly well South of Grand Cayman. Until this finishes consolidating, I think we should be suspect of any model tracks or intensities.


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[ElectricStorm]

Some people on here are WAY too quick in writing storms off... 95L rapidly organized today and 1 period of warning convection does not mean it's done lol

[psyclone]

yeah this is a fun one to watch. i'm not expecting much but it's close enough to home to be moderately interesting. Might be too little too late but you never know. worry-o-meter as of now is a 0...always subject to change should conditions warrant..

[underthwx]

I really hope no one is writing off this storm yet. I remember people saying ( I remember the names) that the season is over and see you in June and look at the storm today. Counting out a storm won’t help. Please for the sake of complacency & just common sense, don’t write off a storm especially when the NHC thinks it has a high chance of developing.

True that....besides...this storm may take until next June to form....so stick around!....yall have a great weekend, I look forward to the forum discussions over the weekend...

[ElectricStorm]

Looks to me like it's starting to get that shrimp look. I would think this will be a depression pretty soon.

[underthwx]

Some people on here are WAY too quick in writing storms off... 95L rapidly organized today and 1 period of warning convection does not mean it's done lol

I feel that 95L will get it's act together tomorrow, I look forward to recon getting out there and provide some on location information....

[us89]

80/90 on the 2 AM TWO.

[ClarCari]

And the discussion points out what alot of us saw.
The center did indeed relocate further south.

[SouthFLTropics]

Good old Stacey Stewart giving us a bump in percentages. Based on the level of organization it is well warranted.


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[CrazyC83]

The calendar doesn't lie. It's do or die time for a CONUS threat and it looks like the latter is at hand.

There have been CONUS hits in November before.

[underthwx]

And the discussion points out what alot of us saw.
The center did indeed relocate further south.

Just south of Grand Cayman?...

[underthwx]

Looking at the new convection firing I would guess that the COC is now directly well South of Grand Cayman. Until this finishes consolidating, I think we should be suspect of any model tracks or intensities.


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2 am NHC confirms what you saw on Satellite my friend...

[SFLcane]

I see models have shifted way west now into the central gulfcoast now some even clipping the Yucatán it’s been that kinda year for them. I don’t expect this to be a big issue though as conditions are quite hostile in the GOM. Not an issue for SFL other than some rain