ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

From NWS Miami Forecast Discussion..."The long term period will start off very active as we watch to see
what Invest 95L does in the western Caribbean this weekend and
into early next week. Globals are all over the map with the
evolution, however, confidence is high for additional heavy
rain/hydro concerns (see hydro section below). Globals want to
pull the system northward and eventually west across the Gulf of
Mexico through the middle part of the week. At this juncture,
regardless of development into a weak system, the message is
clear...heavy rain through the start of the next workweek. Some
improvement is then expected on the back half of the long term
period as a Bermuda high noses into the region. That will not
completely erase POPs for the second half of the week, but may
help suppress the chances just a bit"....This is a part of NWS Miami Forecast Discussion. Sounds like alot of uncertainty at work here regarding 95L...I am inclined to believe it won't travel westward across the GOM, not with a front due next week...

This!

[TheStormExpert]

I’m surprised they didn’t up development chances with the way it’s looking now.

[wxman57]

Very good video by Levi (Tropical Tidbits) explaining the situation. The quicker it develops, the farther east, maybe east of Florida then back west to the FL Peninsula. If it heads for the central Gulf then it's toast - too much dry air and shear. Could make it to the FL Panhandle as a TS, perhaps. Not a strong one, though. Best environment may well be south of Cuba this weekend.

[Sanibel]

Has curvature signs of snapping together...IMO...

Sooner rather than later I would say...

[SFLcane]

Has curvature signs of snapping together...IMO...

Sooner rather than later I would say...

Actually I was about to say it seems organization seems to have leveled atleast based along on satellite appearance. 18z guidance trended weaker with the Hwrf into the gulf were it will get it’s head chopped off. We will see what tomorrow brings

[Frank2]

The models are not bullish on intensity... but we at S2K know better. This thing is literally sitting on top of the highest ocean heat content in the basin (perhaps the highest on the planet). A decade of almost undisturbed ocean water that is heated to great depths. It feels like we're watching a lit fuse burn its way toward a pile of explosives.

That's pretty good fiction writing - the SST down there is about average for October...

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocea ... index.html

[ElectricStorm]

The models are not bullish on intensity... but we at S2K know better. This thing is literally sitting on top of the highest ocean heat content in the basin (perhaps the highest on the planet). A decade of almost undisturbed ocean water that is heated to great depths. It feels like we're watching a lit fuse burn its way toward a pile of explosives.

That's pretty good fiction writing even for this site - the SST down there is about average for October...

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocea ... index.html

That's why he said OHC and not SSTs. The OHC down there is pretty extreme. The 2 storms this month that formed in the Caribbean RI'd because of that. Depending on how much time this one has, it could make a run for hurricane status. And storms don't need record SST's to blow up *looks at Epsilon*

[aspen]

In my unprofessional opinion, it seems like 95L might try to concentrate S or SE of the Cayman Islands, not right on top or N of them.

[ClarCari]

In my unprofessional opinion, it seems like 95L might try to concentrate S or SE of the Cayman Islands, not right on top or N of them.

I was also thinking something like that as some of the ascats from a couple hours ago showed that original center becoming weaker, which lead me to think a relocation might be happening.
Essentially this would put it even further under that anticyclone and give it more time over water before hitting Cuba. If it become a TS by anytime tomorrow I would be shocked if it didn’t become a hurricane.

[gatorcane]

The upper anticyclone is over top (not shown below) but the mid-level shear from the north looks to be an issue, perhaps why some convection is waning:

[jhpigott]

Very good video by Levi (Tropical Tidbits) explaining the situation. The quicker it develops, the farther east, maybe east of Florida then back west to the FL Peninsula. If it heads for the central Gulf then it's toast - too much dry air and shear. Could make it to the FL Panhandle as a TS, perhaps. Not a strong one, though. Best environment may well be south of Cuba this weekend.

Do you think Irene 99' redux is on the table here?

[Sanibel]

Has curvature signs of snapping together...IMO...

Sooner rather than later I would say...

Actually I was about to say it seems organization seems to have leveled atleast based along on satellite appearance. 18z guidance trended weaker with the Hwrf into the gulf were it will get it’s head chopped off. We will see what tomorrow brings

Grasshopper: Watch for the right blob by Jamaica to diminish and the center to burst...

[Blown Away]

Based on current modeling and climatology, IF 95L becomes a strong TS or Hurricane it will likely move NE over Cuba, near/over SFL, then through Bahamas... If 95L stays weak it will go NW and get absorbed as the cold front sweeps down...

[northjaxpro]

...Great discussion and presentation by Levi on TT on 95L!!

[cp79]

Wherever this goes, the right side of this system is nasty. So a ride up the Eastern GOM would prolly be worst case scenario for most of Fla in that it would deliver heavy rainfall for most of the peninsula and hit the panhandle area. A center that skirts SE Fla isn’t the worst thing as most of the bad weather would miss the US.

[SFLcane]

00z guidance much weaker perhaps a flash in the pan with this one? If it goes west into the GOM its toast. Not overly concerned based on what I am seeing tonight other then more rainy weather for the Florida peninsula.

[underthwx]

95L not looking as impressive as earlier, maybe loss of daytime heating?....I anticipate it will again be looking much healthier tomorrow?...95L is proving itself to be a slow starter from the git-go...

[ClarCari]

95L not looking as impressive as earlier, maybe loss of daytime heating?....I anticipate it will again be looking much healthier tomorrow?...95L is proving itself to be a slow starter from the git-go...

Just typical DMIN waning, nothing really unusual and not a sign of it losing steam, if anything it’s popcorning cold clouds again and it’s right now doing it around almost in a “circle” hmmmm...so i’d say it’s still well on it’s way and DMAX could give it a big push.

[underthwx]

95L not looking as impressive as earlier, maybe loss of daytime heating?....I anticipate it will again be looking much healthier tomorrow?...95L is proving itself to be a slow starter from the git-go...

Just typical DMIN waning, nothing really unusual and not a sign of it losing steam, if anything it’s popcorning cold clouds again and it’s right now doing it around almost in a “circle” hmmmm...so i’d say it’s still well on it’s way and DMAX could give it a big push.

Well said...agreed

[cp79]

Yeah not looking good for 95L. Could be heading for a slow death here soon.