ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

The models are not bullish on intensity... but we at S2K know better. This thing is literally sitting on top of the highest ocean heat content in the basin (perhaps the highest on the planet). A decade of almost undisturbed ocean water that is heated to great depths. It feels like we're watching a lit fuse burn its way toward a pile of explosives.

[underthwx]

I won't be surprised to see some watches being issued perhaps overnight, or tomorrow...based on the appearance of 95L....can watches be issued, even though 95L has not been identified as a cyclone?....and is expected to become one?...

[Hurricaneman]

The models are not bullish on intensity... but we at S2K know better. This thing is literally sitting on top of the highest ocean heat content in the basin (perhaps the highest on the planet). A decade of almost undisturbed ocean water that is heated to great depths. It feels like we're watching a lit fuse burn its way toward a pile of explosives.

We have to treat this like a big threat even if it’s doesn’t do much, Michael in 2018 wasn’t modeled to do much due to modeled shear but the shear was weaker early on and non existent 12 hrs before landfall all the way up to landfall

[aspen]

The models are not bullish on intensity... but we at S2K know better. This thing is literally sitting on top of the highest ocean heat content in the basin (perhaps the highest on the planet). A decade of almost undisturbed ocean water that is heated to great depths. It feels like we're watching a lit fuse burn its way toward a pile of explosives.

I guess it all boils down to how much time this will have between developing a closed LLC and moving over land. Even if it only gets 24 hours, it could become a high end TS or a low end hurricane like Gamma; 48-60 hours could mean another major.

[Nimbus]

Houston is getting showers ahead of a trough that is digging south into the gulf.
12Z HWRF must be thinking this will drag 95L north over Cuba.
If trough misses then we get something out in the gulf under low shear.
Usually get a second trough to pull it east again before landfall, but this time of year maybe the first trough digs and lingers which would provide lots of shear.

[us89]

I won't be surprised to see some watches being issued perhaps overnight, or tomorrow...based on the appearance of 95L....can watches be issued, even though 95L has not been identified as a cyclone?....and is expected to become one?...

That's what the PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) designation is for.

[underthwx]

I won't be surprised to see some watches being issued perhaps overnight, or tomorrow...based on the appearance of 95L....can watches be issued, even though 95L has not been identified as a cyclone?....and is expected to become one?...

That's what the PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) designation is for.

Thanks us89....lol...I must admit that I am embarrassed...I should have known better...

[OuterBanker]

Where's Wxman?

[Nuno]

It may be difficult for me, at least at first, to see this storm as "Zeta." To me Zeta is that cute little post-Christmas storm that everybody rang in the New Year with. It may take a little while to get used to another storm with that name, especially one that's so different from the last one.

Who would've though that 2005's Epsilon would be outdone by another Epsilon?

[underthwx]

The models are not bullish on intensity... but we at S2K know better. This thing is literally sitting on top of the highest ocean heat content in the basin (perhaps the highest on the planet). A decade of almost undisturbed ocean water that is heated to great depths. It feels like we're watching a lit fuse burn its way toward a pile of explosives.

I guess it all boils down to how much time this will have between developing a closed LLC and moving over land. Even if it only gets 24 hours, it could become a high end TS or a low end hurricane like Gamma; 48-60 hours could mean another major.

Aspen...if I may ask you....Is 95L forecast to be stationary, or kinda meander around the Carribean for a period of time?....thus resulting in more time for strengthing to occur?....

[Evil Jeremy]

Where's Wxman?

Probably enjoying whatever hours of free time he has left before this system ruins his weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

Where's Wxman?

Probably enjoying whatever hours of free time he has left before this system ruins his weekend.

Nah, he already made it quite clear it wont develop...

[CourierPR]

Where's Wxman?

Probably enjoying whatever hours of free time he has left before this system ruins his weekend.

Nah, he already made it quite clear it won't develop...

So Aric, what do you think will happen with 95L?

[Aric Dunn]

Probably enjoying whatever hours of free time he has left before this system ruins his weekend.

Nah, he already made it quite clear it won't develop...

So Aric, what do you think will happen with 95L?

I made several post a few pages ago.

[SFLcane]

I am expecting 80-90% at 8pm from the nhc.

[underthwx]

[Youtube][/Youtube]

I am expecting 80-90% at 8pm from the nhc.

I think that is a pretty safe bet, 95L is getting much better organized...I am anxious to see what recon discovers out there, to be honest, I have been wondering why they are not out there this evening....based on 95Ls appearance on satellite imagery...

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the latest IR, looks like cloud tops have warmed some. Might be trying to mix out some dry air.

[ClarCari]

Looking at the latest IR, looks like cloud tops have warmed some. Might be trying to mix out some dry air.

Doubt it. There’s no shear to push the dry air from the west right now. Alot of moisture around it too which should keep it well protected for a while barring any westerly shear in the future.
I still see alot of cold clouds nearby which could suggest either the center is still deciding on where to relocate or fluctuating convection typical of developing systems.

[edu2703]

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the broad
area of low pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the next day or two while the low drifts
toward the northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by
Sunday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early next week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and
southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[underthwx]

From NWS Miami Forecast Discussion..."The long term period will start off very active as we watch to see
what Invest 95L does in the western Caribbean this weekend and
into early next week. Globals are all over the map with the
evolution, however, confidence is high for additional heavy
rain/hydro concerns (see hydro section below). Globals want to
pull the system northward and eventually west across the Gulf of
Mexico through the middle part of the week. At this juncture,
regardless of development into a weak system, the message is
clear...heavy rain through the start of the next workweek. Some
improvement is then expected on the back half of the long term
period as a Bermuda high noses into the region. That will not
completely erase POPs for the second half of the week, but may
help suppress the chances just a bit"....This is a part of NWS Miami Forecast Discussion. Sounds like alot of uncertainty at work here regarding 95L...I am inclined to believe it won't travel westward across the GOM, not with a front due next week...