Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[underthwx]

Here's what I see happening:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

Lol....wish I had thought of that....a weather man with a sense of humor.... refreshing....see you in Htown Wxman57.....I deliver over on the West side, near the Galleria, down to the West Park curve....good to see a fellow Houstonian on the forum...

[cycloneye]

Down to 0% in two days and stays at 10% in 5 days.

A trough of low pressure extends from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula
southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east
of the trough axis. Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development while the system drifts
westward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[underthwx]

Wxman57...is it fair to say that you don't expect much to come from this low?

[LarryWx]

Wxman57...is it fair to say that you don't expect much to come from this low?

When 57 talks, people listen....or else they think of a good steak sauce.

[underthwx]

Wxman57...is it fair to say that you don't expect much to come from this low?

When 57 talks, people listen....or else they think of a good steak sauce.

Lol....

[LarryWx]

Folks, we have cyclogenesis on the 12Z Euro from what is now in the SW Car and it is coming back WSW under a building ridge! Will it survive and come all the way back to FL later on this run? Stay tuned because nobody knows yet!

[AutoPenalti]

Folks, we have cyclogenesis on the 12Z Euro from what is now in the SW Car and it is coming back WSW under a building ridge!

https://i.imgur.com/hrxude5.png

That's in 7 days. It's something.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, if Florida was going to get hit from a WSW moving storm from the NE, 2020 would be the year to do it in. What a crazy year!!!

[LarryWx]

Folks, we have cyclogenesis on the 12Z Euro from what is now in the SW Car and it is coming back WSW under a building ridge! Will it survive and come all the way back to FL later on this run? Stay tuned because nobody knows yet!

https://i.imgur.com/hrxude5.png

No, it is falling apart on its way back WSW:

[SouthFLTropics]

I think that the fact that the Euro showed anything at all is significant. We can't write this off yet.

[TheStormExpert]

Folks, we have cyclogenesis on the 12Z Euro from what is now in the SW Car and it is coming back WSW under a building ridge! Will it survive and come all the way back to FL later on this run? Stay tuned because nobody knows yet!

https://i.imgur.com/hrxude5.png

In late-October I’m sure another trough will come by and pick it up. Odds of a Florida hit from the east are slim to none by now.

Of course there was the 1935 Yankee Hurricane that formed on October 30th east of Bermuda then tracked west and SW towards SE Florida.

[SFLcane]

Highly unlikely track there. I don’t see anything of any significance in Euro op other then a weak low heading wsw. Still fantasy land even on the euro

[LarryWx]

Folks, we have cyclogenesis on the 12Z Euro from what is now in the SW Car and it is coming back WSW under a building ridge! Will it survive and come all the way back to FL later on this run? Stay tuned because nobody knows yet!

https://i.imgur.com/hrxude5.png

In late-October I’m sure another trough will come by and pick it up. Odds of a Florida hit from the east are slim to none by now.

Of course there was the 1935 Yankee Hurricane that formed on October 30th east of Bermuda then tracked west and SW towards SE Florida.

Well, the remnants actually almost came back to SE FL as of the end of the run! See the curved 1017 mb isobar just offshore:

[SFLcane]

Nothing to see her atleast next 5-7 days if not more and by then conus impact is unlikely. At this rate it will be thanksgiving.

Next!

 https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1318622190179295233

[Spacecoast]

No one has recently accused the Euro of being Genesis happy, so it's interesting...
This actually showed up on last night's 0z ECMF as a system originating in exteme EPAC..
0z ECMF has~55% Genesis probablity in 24hrs on EPAC side of Panama, with the 12z operational weak thru Bahamas, then ridge-trapped NE:




12z NAV has 34% Genesis prob in 108 hours North of Cuba, then weak thru Bahamas, then NE:


12Z GFS,GEFS,CMC ,& UK runs do not indicate genesis in nexy 168 hours:

[TheStormExpert]

Really this year has not been that crazy in the Tropics the more I think about it. Yes everything has basically spun up, but the vast majority of storms have been weak or short-lived. Still boggles my mind that outside of the very early stages of Sally Florida managed to remain untouched from any landfalling TC’s.

[SouthFLTropics]

Really this year has not been that crazy in the Tropics the more I think about it. Yes everything has basically spun up, but the vast majority of storms have been weak or short-lived. Still boggles my mind that outside of the very early stages of Sally Florida managed to remain untouched from any landfalling TC’s.

It really is amazing that the Peninsula has pretty much been untouched despite the shear volume of storms. In fact, I believe that the only time the Peninsula has been under a watch or warning was for Isaias in July. And we all know that ended up being a non-event. With that said, it is only a matter of time. Someday we will have to pay the piper. Despite what everyone says, the "shield" is a figment of everyone's imagination. That fantasy is set up for failure.

[Frank2]

Someday we will have to pay the piper. Despite what everyone says, the "shield" is a figment of everyone's imagination. That fantasy is set up for failure.

Someday? We were directly affected by 4 hurricanes in 2004 and 2005, and 2 in 2016 and 2017. The lower Keys suffered serious damage in 1998, and 57,000 homes were destroyed by Andrew's winds in 1992...

Glad nothing so far this year - we have enough to deal with as it is. The key is not believing everything the models create because they are only as good as the data they collect, and why operational forecasters routinely discard model data beyond 168 hours - just too unreliable...

[SouthFLTropics]

Someday we will have to pay the piper. Despite what everyone says, the "shield" is a figment of everyone's imagination. That fantasy is set up for failure.

We were directly affected by 4 hurricanes in 2004 and 2005, and 2 in 2016 and 2017. The lower Keys suffered serious damage in 1998, and 57,000 homes were destroyed by Andrew's winds in 1992...

Glad nothing so far this year - we have enough to deal with as it is...

You don't have to remind me about all of those storms. I was here and went through every one of them including three (Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma) that went right over my house. Of course Georges smacked the Keys in 98 and Andrew's impact on South Dade is forever written in the history books. In 2016 Matthew was a threat but the impact was minimal to Metro South Florida. Same goes for Irma in 2017. Most of Irma's impacts were felt in the Keys and SW Florida with the Metro areas feeling much lower effects. The fact is, it has been quite a while since Metro South Florida (Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Downtown Miami) has taken a significant impact from a storm. Katrina made landfall in Fort Lauderdale but was only a low end Cat 1 at that time. When was the last time a major made a direct landfall in any of the cities that I listed? It has been a long time. In the meantime, the population has soared in those locations. A major impact in those areas now would leave billions in damage.

[SouthFLTropics]

Back on topic... ICON, has a weak low dancing around Western Cuba at the end of it's 18z run.