Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SFLcane]

[Hurricaneman]

The area near Columbia looks interesting, the models seem to be honing in on that area, could see the NHC change the outlook area at 2 as it seems as though that may be where things start coming together

[wxman57]

Here's what I see happening:

[SouthFLTropics]

Here's what I see happening:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

Wxman57 is listening to the Who this morning... "Won't Get Fooled Again"

[TheStormExpert]

Honestly I don’t know what to think at this point. The 00z UKMET drops development while the 06z GFS is now the only model showing development. I think we’re being fooled you guys!

[chaser1]

Here's what I see happening:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

Winning post of the week award

[Sanibel]

Kudos to the forecasters...

Those writing this off were doing it too early in my opinion and this is doing classic slow trough-like formation and won't look back...

[LarryWx]

The 6Z “King and his men”, i.e., the Euro and its ensembles, were very quiet. Interestingly, after that suddenly active 12Z EPS of yesterday (with 20% of its members sub 1000 mb for the follow up system, which is now in the SW Caribbean), each succeeding EPS has had less and less activity. Let’s see whether or not that quiet trend continues at 12Z.

The 6Z GEFS, though not as active as yesterday’s very active 18Z, is a good bit more active than the pretty quiet 0Z GEFS.

We watch. We wait. We analyze. Because that’s what we do.

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's what I see happening:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

The Texas winter thread appears to be leaking

[Ivanhater]

I just went through and cleaned up a bunch on nonsense posts that had absolutely nothing to do with this system.

Back on topic...

[jconsor]

IMHO don't sleep on the W. Caribbean system yet. Pattern remains supportive overall for TC development this weekend into early next week, especially once Epsilon (which has been cutting off some inflow to W. Carib system) departs to the NE.

I concur with the tweet below that GEFS/GFS have a tendency to drop potebtial tropical cyclones in medium range, before bringing them back in shorter range. (Of course this comment is mainly based on GEFS before the upgrade a few months ago, but there is reason to believe this behavior persists after upgrade).

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318576590301892616




 https://twitter.com/AdamMcDoom/status/1317836379414462466

[LarryWx]

I know it is the low accuracy NAVGEM, but fwiw, the 6Z is the 3rd run in a row with development of the SW Car system but it is a little slower as it is only in W Cuba at the end (144) moving north.

And as mentioned, the 6Z GFS was slow but then went ape shoot with it in the NW Car and it lasted til the end of the run.

[LarryWx]

As of 138, 12Z GFS is similar to 6Z with what looks like NW Car TC genesis from the system that’s now in the SW Car. But the 12Z UKMET, like the 0Z and unlike yesterday’s 12Z, has no TC genesis.

[gatorcane]

strong ridge over Florida and the Gulf push it into the Yucatan and BoC on the 12Z GFS.

[Shell Mound]

Here's what I see happening:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

I think Bones will be coming out shortly, just in time for Halloween.

[Loveweather12]

strong ridge over Florida and the Gulf push it into the Yucatan and BoC on the 12Z GFS.

https://i.postimg.cc/xCTtmGLv/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh96-204.gif

Things can change. I also wouldn’t trust a model that suddenly drops development after 25 runs. The steering is complex

[Sanibel]

I might have spoke too soon because they say there is shear down there...

[SFLcane]

As of 138, 12Z GFS is similar to 6Z with what looks like NW Car TC genesis from the system that’s now in the SW Car. But the 12Z UKMET, like the 0Z and unlike yesterday’s 12Z, has no TC genesis.

One day maybe next year the gfs will be right.

[boca]

Why does the GFS have that storm heading right into the cold front, it doesn’t make sense.

[jconsor]

My thoughts on one factor that may be behind the delayed/lack of development in W. Caribbean:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318594364155842560