2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Direct hit on Guam during a la nina? I doubt it.

Formation



Peak

[euro6208]

A series of ripples in the trade-wind flow will generate scattered
showers this morning, late tonight and Tuesday morning, and perhaps
around the weekend. For now, the forecast doesn`t have the scattered
showers for the weekend, will review again tonight. The GFS and the
ECMWF-HiRes are bringing circulations through the area. Early on, the
ECMWF is bringing them south of Guam, then a week from now brings
one through the Marianas. The GFS is bringing them through the
Marianas from the beginning. So far wind speeds don`t seem all that
impressive, will remain vigilant though as this could just be an
artifact of low resolution.

[mrbagyo]

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS drops the low rider again but it does have a rapidly intensifying typhoon hitting Luzon right behind 19w... peaks at 967mb.

[FireRat]

Late October and November can produce fearsome monsters in this side of the world. Could 2020 be such a year? It will be very interesting to track the WPAC since it has been relatively quiet in this region most of the season. 2010 & 2013 come to mind.

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/59277471.gif

tagged
INVEST 97W

[Hayabusa]

Based on the Euro recent run, the model disturbance would be already trackable as early as 21/18Z

[euro6208]

06z GFS back to twin typhoons again and both rapidly intensifying.

[aspen]

The GFS and Euro, for once, actually agree on something this year. They both have a precursor disturbance near Guam at 144 hours and develop it into a “Typhoon Alley” system.

[euro6208]

After the passage of the circulation, weak ridging is anticipated to
introduce a period of fair weather Thursday and Thursday night. By
Friday, the second surface trough should gradually lift northwestward
and bring more showery conditions to the local islands into the
weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting the surface trough
transforming into a monsoon trough late this weekend or early next
week, then developing a tropical disturbance/depression near Guam and
Saipan toward midweek next week. Decided not to implement this
scenario into the long-term forecast at this point. Future shifts
will make any necessary adjustment as this trough evolves.

[1900hurricane]

This is the time of year typical of first year La Ninas to relax a little over the Philippine Sea and open it up for development somewhat. If a disturbance is able to find favorable enough conditions, the waters south of 20ºN and east of 130ºE are basically untouched this year. Madden-Julian has begun to progress out of the Maritime Continent and in the direction of the open Western Pacific, and with it, storm development appears to gradually be trending east. I would keep an eye on guidance trends out past 5 days during the next few days of model cycles. Sometimes solutions are a little slow to pick up on Madden-Julian's effects on tropical cyclogenesis and development.

[aspen]

The Marianas long-tracker develops as early as 144-168 hours out on the 12z GFS and becomes a Cat 4 in the long range.

[aspen]

Most of the models are in pretty good agreement on an active phase in the WPac, with the following current or upcoming storms.

—19W/Saudel: approaching Luzon and might become a typhoon in the SCS
—97W/Molave: all models do show it and it could get named, although it’ll be short lived
—Goni: another weak Philippines system forecast to form on Friday or Saturday
—Atsani: potential long-tracker forecast to form near the Marianas as early as Saturday, could end up as another Bug One this year

[Hayabusa]

Euro and GFS looked like they agree even more in latest 12Z

[ElectricStorm]

Most of the models are in pretty good agreement on an active phase in the WPac, with the following current or upcoming storms.

—19W/Saudel: approaching Luzon and might become a typhoon in the SCS
—97W/Molave: all models do show it and it could get named, although it’ll be short lived
—Goni: another weak Philippines system forecast to form on Friday or Saturday
—Atsani: potential long-tracker forecast to form near the Marianas as early as Saturday, could end up as another Bug One this year

Must be a pretty big bug out there lol

[Hayabusa]

18Z is a mess, kind of dropped it but still there. 00Z is to watch if it will be back along with Euro.

[euro6208]

Even stronger on the 12z EURO.

[ElectricStorm]

Even stronger on the 12z EURO.

https://i.imgur.com/NRjrY7C.png

964mb is pretty significant for a Euro run

[euro6208]

18z GFS has an outbreak. I counted 4-5 TC's popping up until the end of the run.