Jr0d wrote:aspen wrote:Jr0d wrote:Given how poor the models have been sniffing out genesis, one can make the argument a storm is more likely now given the lack of model support today.
If nothing develops, it will have to be a Storm2k record for a phantom storm!
This has already well surpassed pre-Teddy’s thread. Once those Hurricane Maria 2.0 runs came out, we went nuts.
At least those ended up developing into something. This one has an 80% chance of being nothing per the NHC, so this would be the biggest thread for a phantom storm.by a long shot.
That said, looking at the ensembles, there is still a readonable chance of something forming.
With 94L underperforming so far, it might mean this area will eventually get there. The model trend has been showing a stronger 94L equating to a weaker SW Carib signature and vice versa.
Way too many varibles. 20 years ago there would never have even been a discussion about potential development here.
This is a very true statement. How spoiled we have gotten with all of our latest technology and nonstop models to stare at every six hours. Twenty years ago we would have just been waiting for the Tropical Update from John Hope at 50 minutes past the hour. I think when the models are teasing us, sometimes it's best just to sit back and watch what evolves on the satellite for the next few days. Perhaps the GFS is dropping this in the mid-range like it has done before. Perhaps not. I'm still onboard with something forming, just not the monster cane that the GFS was showing for many runs in a row. I could see a TS or Cat 1 like Irene come out of there eventually.
